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SKIVT-L  August 2020, Week 4

SKIVT-L August 2020, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 24 Aug 2020 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (264 lines)

Expires:202008242000;;731365
FPUS51 KBTV 241032
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
629 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020


VTZ006-242000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
629 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020

.TODAY...Patchy dense fog this morning. Mostly cloudy with a
chance of showers. A slight chance of thunderstorms this morning,
then a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon. Some thunderstorms
may produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall this afternoon. Highs
in the lower 80s. Light and variable winds, becoming west around
10 mph this afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy until midnight, then becoming partly
cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms
may produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Lows in the mid 60s.
Southwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely in
the morning, then partly sunny with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce
gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Highs in the mid 70s. Southwest
winds 10 to 15 mph, becoming west 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to
30 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Less humid with lows in the mid
40s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. Northwest winds
around 10 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 70. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the upper 60s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. 

$$


Expires:202008241100;;731310
ASUS41 KBTV 241030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-241100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    68  63  84 SW3       29.99S                  
MONTPELIER     PTCLDY    62  62 100 CALM      30.06F                  
MORRISVILLE    MOCLDY    63  62  97 NW3       30.02R FOG              
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     64  63  96 MISG      30.01F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FOG       63  62  97 CALM      30.05S VSB 1            
RUTLAND*       PTCLDY    60  60 100 E6        30.04S                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    63  62  97 W3        30.03S                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      66  63  90 CALM      30.00S FOG              
NEWPORT*       FAIR      64  61  88 CALM      30.03S                  
BENNINGTON     PTCLDY    62  60  93 CALM      30.03F                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     63 N/A N/A NE2         N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     61 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     64 N/A N/A NW16        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     72  66  83 MISG        N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     72  68  88 S12         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     68  68 100 S8          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;726494
FXUS61 KBTV 240831
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
431 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm and humid air mass will persist across the North Country
allowing for renewed potential of shower and thunderstorm 
development this afternoon. A few strong storms will be 
possible, capable of producing brief heavy rainfall, gusty 
winds, and frequent lightning. Highs for today will again reach
the low to mid 80s across most valley locations. A strong 
frontal boundary will cross the region Tuesday morning,
producing scattered showers and thunderstorms that will also be
capable of a few strong storms with gusty winds and heavy
rainfall. After the front, the mid-week period will be 
characterized by cooler and drier weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 346 AM EDT Monday...With the clock turning towards 4 AM
EDT, convection continues to periodically pulse with mostly 
elevated instability of around 1000 J/kg and moisture boundary 
as mid-level ridging noses into the North Country. Thus, 
current activity north of Massena is expected to remain north of
the International Border, while ongoing activity will shift 
east and out of the area. Not expecting temperatures to cool 
significantly, as southwesterly winds advect warm air into the 
region. The North Country will wake to temperatures in the mid 
50s to mid 60s.

During the day, we should see partial clearing, especially in south-
central Vermont as a tongue of dry air lifts into our region. 
925hPa temps remain around 21-23 C. So temperatures in the 
lower to mid 80s remains likely with surface dewpoints in the 
mid 60s. Looks like convection will be slow to initiate this 
afternoon with low-level dry air lingering in our region for 
some time before the combination of diurnal heating and lowering
heights allows convection to initiate across residual 
boundaries from the overnight convection while a weak surface 
low moves just north of the International Border. This also 
lines up with the better mid-level moisture and is where the 
HREF supports the greatest probability of strong updrafts this
afternoon. A few short-lived strong thunderstorms will be 
possible, capable of frequent lightning, heavy rainfall, and 
gusty winds.

This activity shifts east towards midnight. Right on its heels will
be a strong late summer upper trough. Its attendant cold front
should start to move into the St. Lawrence Valley just before
sunrise. This will make for a warm and muggy Monday night with lows
only falling into the lower to upper 60s. Scattered showers and
embedded thunderstorms should propagate along the frontal boundary,
supported by the boundary and a favorable jet configuration. 
The front will reach the Champlain Valley later in the morning 
and then reach eastern Vermont early in the afternoon. Across 
Vermont, this will allow surface based instability of around 
1000-1500 J/kg to develop while 0-6km shear increases to 30-35 
knots. The snag for our severe potential will be the time of 
day and a 700hPa warm layer that may impact the ability to 
produce deep, sustained updrafts. Think the support of the
frontal forcing should be able to overcome this to some degree.
As such, SPC places much of Champlain Valley into Vermont in a 
slight risk (Level 2), with a chance for storms capable of 
producing damaging winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning. 
Activity begins to shift east of Vermont by 3-5 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 354 AM EDT Monday...Mid/upper lvl trof deepens acrs ne
conus on Tues Night into Weds with moderately strong llvl caa
behind departing cold front. Have noted progged 850mb temps near
0c off the GFS at 12z Weds, while NAM is in the 2-3c range, with
breezy 850mb winds of 25 to 35 knots. This will be an advection
type cold, with coldest values at summits and warmest near Lake
Champlain. Thinking lows generally in the upper 30s summits to
mid/upper 50s near Lake Champlain. Fog is questionable given
strong 925mb to 850mb flow and advection of drier air on
northwest bl winds. On Weds 1018mb sfc high pres ridges into our
fa with very dry 1000 to 500mb rh fields acrs our cwa, resulting
in mostly sunny skies and cool temps. Cannot completely rule out
an isolated sprinkle in the favorable upslope flow regions of
the northern dacks into the mtns of VT, but overall qpf and
areal coverage will be very limited. Temps generally upper
40s/mid 50s summits to upper 60s warmer valleys. Weds night
mid/upper lvl moisture begins to approach our southwest cwa aft
06z, but with prevailing northwest flow aloft, thinking fa will
remain dry. Llvl temps warm several degrees from previous 
night, with lows mainly in the lower 40s to mid 50s. 

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 354 AM EDT Monday...Northern stream is progged to prevail
acrs our fa into next week, which places our cwa on the cooler
and more stable side, as fast westerly flow aloft continues.
For Thursday, short wave energy will drop southeast from
southern Canada into southern New England, while better 850 to
500mb uvvs and rh fields are located just south of our fa. Have
continued to mention chc pops mainly along and south of a MSS to
BTV to Leb line on Thurs, with highest pops acrs southern SLV
into southern VT. Latest trends in guidances shows deeper
moisture, stronger forcing from 5h vort, and better instability
acrs central NY into southern New England, as confluent flow
aloft deflects system to our south. Additional s/w energy and
limited moisture in the west/northwest flow aloft impacts our
region Friday into the weekend. Difficult to time individual
systems in the fast flow aloft, but chances for showers will
prevail Friday into Saturday. Weak mid/upper lvl ridge is
expected to develop Sunday into early next week, along with sfc
high pres, which should result in drier conditions. Have mention
of highest pops on late Friday into Saturday, before drying
occurs on Sunday into Monday. Good news in the temp department,
given we are dominated by west/northwest flow aloft, temps will
be at or slightly below normal values for Thurs thru Sunday. If
more clouds and better potential for widespread rainfall occurs
on any particular day, temps will need to be adjusted down by 3
to 5 degrees. Highs generally mid 60s to mid 70s with lows mid
40s to mid 50s. 

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Pocket of showers and storms currently
moving east towards KPBG and KBTV. All terminals currently VFR.
Intensity of lightning and gusty winds have been declining now,
but KPBG could see reduced visibility and a brief northwest 
wind gust of 15 to 20 knots around 06Z and showers waning around
07Z. Otherwise, activity declines as mid-level ridge in, drying
us out. Fog will develop at KMPV and KSLK bringing visibility 
down to 1/4SM- 1SM from 08Z-12Z. Southwest winds develop beyond 
13Z at 4 to 8 knots. Scattered showers and storms will likely 
begin to develop after 17Z nearing terminals at various times 
through roughly 02Z.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Haynes

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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May 2010, Week 5
May 2010, Week 4
May 2010, Week 3
May 2010, Week 2
May 2010, Week 1
April 2010, Week 5
April 2010, Week 4
April 2010, Week 3
April 2010, Week 2
April 2010, Week 1
March 2010, Week 5
March 2010, Week 4
March 2010, Week 3
March 2010, Week 2
March 2010, Week 1
February 2010, Week 4
February 2010, Week 3
February 2010, Week 2
February 2010, Week 1
January 2010, Week 5
January 2010, Week 4
January 2010, Week 3
January 2010, Week 2
January 2010, Week 1
December 2009, Week 5
December 2009, Week 4
December 2009, Week 3
December 2009, Week 2
December 2009, Week 1
November 2009, Week 5
November 2009, Week 4
November 2009, Week 3
November 2009, Week 2
November 2009, Week 1
October 2009, Week 5
October 2009, Week 4
October 2009, Week 3
October 2009, Week 2
October 2009, Week 1
September 2009, Week 5
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September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
August 2009, Week 5
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July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
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May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
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May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
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April 2009, Week 1
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October 2008, Week 5
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October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
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September 2008, Week 3
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July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
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May 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
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April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
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March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
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February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
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January 2008, Week 3
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January 2008, Week 1
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November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
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October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
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September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
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August 2007, Week 3
August 2007, Week 2
August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
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June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
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May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
February 2007, Week 3
February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
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January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
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December 2006, Week 3
December 2006, Week 2
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November 2006, Week 3
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November 2006, Week 1
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October 2006, Week 4
October 2006, Week 3
October 2006, Week 2
October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
September 2006, Week 4
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September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
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May 2006, Week 5
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May 2006, Week 3
May 2006, Week 2
May 2006, Week 1
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October 2005, Week 4
October 2005, Week 3
October 2005, Week 2
October 2005, Week 1
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September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
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September 2005, Week 1
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July 2005, Week 1
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April 2004, Week 1
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