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SKIVT-L  August 2020, Week 4

SKIVT-L August 2020, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sat, 22 Aug 2020 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (256 lines)

Expires:202008222000;;627841
FPUS51 KBTV 221007
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
604 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2020


VTZ006-222000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
604 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2020

.TODAY...Patchy fog this morning. Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid
70s. Light and variable winds. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Light and variable
winds. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s. Light and
variable winds, becoming southwest around 10 mph in the
afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. Light and variable winds.
Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s. Southwest winds around
10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain
60 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the lower 50s. Chance of
rain 60 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 40s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the upper 60s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the lower 70s. 

$$


Expires:202008221100;;628951
ASUS41 KBTV 221030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-221100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    64  61  90 E3        29.90S                  
MONTPELIER     FOG       59  59 100 CALM      29.97R VSB 1/4          
MORRISVILLE    FOG       61  60  97 N3        29.93R VSB 1/2          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     60  60 100 MISG      29.92R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FOG       59  58  97 CALM      29.96R VSB<1/4          
RUTLAND*       MOCLDY    59  59 100 SE9       29.93S FOG              
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    61  60  97 CALM      29.94R FOG              
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    60  57  90 CALM      29.90S FOG              
NEWPORT*       FOG       59  57  94 CALM      29.94S VSB 1/4          
BENNINGTON     PTCLDY    57  55  93 W3        29.94R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     57 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     55 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     57 N/A N/A E1          N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     59 N/A N/A W17         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     68  64  88 SE7         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     66  66 100 SE7         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     64  64 100 SE6         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;622152
FXUS61 KBTV 220753
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
353 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A foggy and mostly cloudy morning will give way to a splendid
Saturday across the North Country. Conditions will be dry for
most, but a few showers and thunderstorms are possible across 
portions of Essex County, New York through southern and central 
Vermont this afternoon. A warming trend takes place for the
weekend as a warm front lifts back north across the region
on Sunday. This feature will provide the focus for periods of 
showers and thunderstorms for the first half of the week as it
wavers across our region, followed by a better push of cool, dry
air towards the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 341 AM EDT Saturday...In the wake of the cold front that has
slipped south, the North Country is currently blanketed in fog in
the valleys, even outside of the favorable locations. Additionally,
some mid-level stratus continues to linger over the area where a 850-
500mb moisture axis remains stationary across our region. Fog burns
off this morning, and clouds should thin out this afternoon. With
925mb temps around 16C with light northwesterly flow, anticipate
highs to top in the mid 70s to lower 80s for today. Adequate moisture
and best heating will be further south, where isolated showers could
develop over elevated terrain and then drift eastwards during the
late morning through the evening.

For the overnight hours, we will likely see some patchy fog, but
decided to hold off placing it within forecast grids to better time
high clouds that will be on the increase overnight. Forecast lows in
the upper 40s to low 50s across the cool hollows with the remainder
of the region in the mid 50s to near 60. Towards sunrise on Sunday,
low-level flow will also begin to increase. Anticipate some
channeling through the Champlain Valley, where winds on Lake
Champlain, especially, could see some 20-25 mph winds.

Sunday looks to evolve similar to Friday. We should start the day
with warm advection allowing for scattered showers in the morning as
the old boundary from Friday lifts back northwards before an east-
west oriented cold front slips back down across our area and
provides a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms during the
afternoon. Similar to Friday, conditions will be conducive for
isolated, short-lived strong to severe storms. What sets Sunday
apart will be better surface heating with highs north of the cold
front in the upper 70s and mid to upper 80s south of the front
(lower Champlain and Connecticut Valleys). Dry air in the lowest
portion of the atmosphere indicate better potential for downburst
winds, and 0-6km bulk shear will be around 30kts again. However,
that dry air will also have an effect on the overall coverage, with
disagreement between high-res models on the the areal extent and
location. If trends indicate greater convective coverage, we could
be looking at a more active day. For now, placed an emphasis on
highest PoPs near the thermal boundary, which brings the highest
chances and the greatest QPF totals to the Northeast Kingdom where
0.33"-0.50" is forecast. Elsewhere, amounts of a few hundredths to
0.25" is expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 341 AM EDT Saturday...The chance for showers and thunderstorms
will continue through the start of the work week as a frontal
boundary continues to waver over or very near the North Country.
Waves of low pressure will move along the front as weak shortwaves
traverse through the west-northwest flow aloft. This will 
result in a couple of rounds of convection during the short term
period. As has been the case, model guidance differs on the 
exact placement of the front and the timing of the shortwaves, 
resulting in a variety of solutions as to timing and placement 
of precipitation. However, consensus places the bulk of the 
activity along our northern tier or just north of the 
international border. The wavering frontal boundary makes for a 
tough temperature forecast, but Monday looks to be another warm 
one with the boundary likely near the Canadian border. Highs 
will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s. Overnight lows will be
in the upper 50s to mid 60s both Sunday and Monday nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 341 AM EDT Saturday...Conditions will remain unsettled 
for much of mid/late next week. An upper trough and its 
associate surface cold front will move through the North Country
Tuesday, sparking additional showers and thunderstorms. Surface
high pressure builds south from Canada for Wednesday while the 
deepening upper trough spins over eastern Canada into the 
Maritimes. The GFS in particular ushers in quite a chilly 
airmass with the high, with highs potentially struggling to get 
out of the 60s areawide on Wednesday under brisk northwest flow.
Wednesday does indeed look to the coolest day of the week, but 
the GFS is likely overdone; highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s 
seem more reasonable. All eyes then turn toward the remnants of 
what is currently Tropical Storm Laura. There's quite a bit of 
model spread in the handling of this system, but overall 
consensus is that here in the North Country, we'll see another 
cold frontal passage late in the week which will help keep the 
bulk of Laura well to our south. However, there are some 
indications that moisture associated with Laura could interact 
with this front as it moves through, which would bring us a good
shot of rainfall. The ECMWF in particular favors this rainier 
solution as it is faster in moving Laura's remnants away from 
the coast and into the Appalachians. Given all the above model 
differences and discrepancies, stuck close to a model blend 
through much of the period. 

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Widespread BR/FG at all terminals except 
BTV. Visibilities generally oscillating between 1/4SM and 4SM as
passing mid-level stratus occasionally disrupts fog, then 
falling again whenever skies clear. Light southeasterly drainage
winds could develop at BTV, bringing in fog from the Winooski 
River near sunrise at 08Z-12Z and have mentioned 3SM visibility 
in a tempo group. Fog will begin to gradually lessen after 10Z 
and should lift by 14Z, leaving mostly clear skies. Winds are 
expected to be 5 knots or less and terrain driven across much of
the region, favoring southwest to west-northwest after 15Z. 
Winds become variable or terrain driven after 00Z Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Haynes

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December 2009, Week 3
December 2009, Week 2
December 2009, Week 1
November 2009, Week 5
November 2009, Week 4
November 2009, Week 3
November 2009, Week 2
November 2009, Week 1
October 2009, Week 5
October 2009, Week 4
October 2009, Week 3
October 2009, Week 2
October 2009, Week 1
September 2009, Week 5
September 2009, Week 4
September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
August 2009, Week 5
August 2009, Week 4
August 2009, Week 3
August 2009, Week 2
August 2009, Week 1
July 2009, Week 5
July 2009, Week 4
July 2009, Week 3
July 2009, Week 2
July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
June 2009, Week 4
June 2009, Week 3
June 2009, Week 2
June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
May 2009, Week 3
May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
April 2009, Week 4
April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
March 2009, Week 4
March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
February 2009, Week 4
February 2009, Week 3
February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
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January 2009, Week 4
January 2009, Week 3
January 2009, Week 2
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December 2008, Week 3
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October 2008, Week 4
October 2008, Week 3
October 2008, Week 2
October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
September 2008, Week 4
September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
August 2008, Week 5
August 2008, Week 4
August 2008, Week 3
August 2008, Week 2
August 2008, Week 1
July 2008, Week 5
July 2008, Week 4
July 2008, Week 3
July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
June 2008, Week 2
June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
May 2008, Week 4
May 2008, Week 3
May 2008, Week 2
May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
February 2008, Week 4
February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
January 2008, Week 5
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January 2008, Week 3
January 2008, Week 2
January 2008, Week 1
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December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
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November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
August 2007, Week 2
August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
May 2007, Week 4
May 2007, Week 3
May 2007, Week 2
May 2007, Week 1
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April 2007, Week 3
April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
February 2007, Week 3
February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
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January 2007, Week 3
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January 2007, Week 1
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December 2006, Week 2
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November 2006, Week 3
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October 2006, Week 4
October 2006, Week 3
October 2006, Week 2
October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
September 2006, Week 4
September 2006, Week 3
September 2006, Week 2
September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
August 2006, Week 4
August 2006, Week 3
August 2006, Week 2
August 2006, Week 1
July 2006, Week 5
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July 2006, Week 3
July 2006, Week 2
July 2006, Week 1
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June 2006, Week 4
June 2006, Week 3
June 2006, Week 2
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May 2006, Week 5
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May 2006, Week 3
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October 2005, Week 3
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October 2005, Week 1
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July 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 1
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May 2005, Week 3
May 2005, Week 2
May 2005, Week 1
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April 2005, Week 4
April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
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February 2005, Week 1
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May 2002, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 3
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March 2002, Week 1
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February 2000, Week 1
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December 1999, Week 5
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