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SKIVT-L  August 2020, Week 4

SKIVT-L August 2020, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Tue, 25 Aug 2020 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (269 lines)

Expires:202008252000;;774139
FPUS51 KBTV 250710
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
307 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2020


VTZ006-252000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
307 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2020

.TODAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Highs in the lower 70s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph, becoming
northwest 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph this afternoon.
Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. Less humid with lows in the upper 40s.
Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. Northwest
winds 15 to 20 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. West winds
10 to 15 mph. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the mid 60s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the upper 60s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the mid 60s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 40s. 
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. 

$$


Expires:202008251000;;780209
ASUS41 KBTV 250930
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-251000-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    73  63  70 S9        29.74F                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    62  61  96 CALM      29.82F                  
MORRISVILLE    FOG       64  62  93 S5        29.76F VSB 3/4          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     64  63  96 MISG      29.77F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FOG       64  64  97 CALM      29.80F VSB 1/4          
RUTLAND*       MOCLDY    64  64 100 SE8       29.82F                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    64  63  96 CALM      29.82F                  
HIGHGATE*      MOCLDY    70  66  87 S5        29.70F                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      64  63  94 SW6       29.77F                  
BENNINGTON     PTCLDY    64  61  90 CALM      29.85F                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     63 N/A N/A E1          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     57 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     61 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     64 N/A N/A W29         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     73  66  78 S14G23      N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     72  68  88 S21         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     70  68  94 SW8         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;777121
FXUS61 KBTV 250820
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
420 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will swing across the North Country today with 
scattered showers and thunderstorms. A few stronger storms are 
possible over central and southern Vermont with gusty winds, small 
hail, frequent lightning and brief heavy downpours as the primary 
threats. Much cooler and drier air arrives on breezy northwest winds 
this afternoon into Wednesday. Temperatures warm into the 70s today, 
but fall back into the 40s and 50s tonight, before only warming into 
the 60s to near 70 on Wednesday. More showers are possible on 
Thursday and again on Saturday with temperatures slightly below 
normal for most of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 416 AM EDT Tuesday...The forecast challenge today will be
thunderstorm potential/evolution associated with cold front. Crnt
radar shows a line of strong storms passing to our south with
another weak cluster north of the International Border. Meanwhile,
sfc analysis shows cold front entering the Ottawa Valley attm, with
water vapor indicating potent s/w energy per drying on backside and
ribbon of enhanced mid lvl moisture on forward flank. 

Given the anticipated early fropa acrs SLV/northern Dacks this 
morning, will limit their svr wx potential, but still thinking 
enough instability with favorable deep layer shear is available 
for a window of stronger storms acrs VT. The best CAPE values of
1500 to 1800 j/kg, along with 0 to 6 km bulk shear parameters 
of 35 to 40 knots is located acrs central/southern VT btwn 15z-
20z today, mainly south of a BTV to 1V4 line. The convective 
evolution is difficult, thinking first weak line of showers with
embedded storms with pre-frontal type features moves acrs 
northern NY into the CPV thru 12z this morning, before 
additional storms develop along cold front boundary between 
14/15z today. 

The sharp discontinuity in instability and good sfc convergence
supports this thinking, but instability could be limited factor
in how robust convective becomes late this morning into the 
early aftn. Given the potent dynamics, favorable deep shear and 
some instability, thinking a broken line of convection is 
possible with some linear bowing line segments capable of 
isolated severe winds. Once again the primary threat would be 
acrs central/southern VT from mid morning until mid aftn, with 
some small hail possible too, especially as cooler profiles 
aloft arrive with developing trof. 

Otherwise, winds quickly shift to the northwest this aftn 
behind boundary and becoming breezy at 15 to 30 mph. This will 
result in moderate llvl caa with much cooler and drier air 
arriving by evening. Tonight will be a cooling by advection, 
resulting in the coldest values in the mid slopes/summits where 
lows will range in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Elsewhere, lows are
in the mid 40s to upper 50s, warmest near Lake Champlain. Fog 
potential is minimal given advection of drier air, good bl 
mixing, and temps not reaching cross over values. On Weds, a 
cool and mostly sunny day is anticipated, but anticipating some 
fair wx stratus/cumulus clouds to develop over the trrn. Highs 
will struggle in the upper 50s to upper 60s to near 70 with much
lower relative humidity values, a taste of fall will be in the 
air.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 416 AM EDT Tuesday...No significant changes made to the
Wednesday night/Thursday timeframe. We'll see temperatures warm
several degrees from Tuesday night as low level flow backs to the
south after midnight ahead an approaching shortwave on Thursday.
Generally speaking temps will be in the low/mid 40s east of the
Greens and across the high terrain to low 50s for the broader
valleys. Several locations could see readings in the upper 30s
mainly across the deep, protected hollows of the NEK as a sharp low
level inversion will be in place.

A subtle piece of shortwave energy will pass through the flow aloft
Thursday afternoon. This will spark showers/thunderstorms across the
the area. The main forecast challenge will be how far to the north
and east do these storms develop. This will largely be tied to the
thermal boundary as an axis of high pressure sits off to our
northeast as warm, moist air advects northward. Best CAPE profiles
remain well off to our SE therefore not looking at any severe
threat, but moderate rainfall may be possible across southern St
Lawrence county into southern Essex county NY as PWATS climb to
around 1.6". At the moment, a sharp QPF gradient exists with ~0.50-
0.70" across the aforementioned areas, decreasing to less than 0.10"
for the far NEK. Highs on Thursday remain below normal one again in
the mid/upper 60s to around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 416 AM EDT Tuesday...The long term period will continue to be
cool and active as broad upper level troughing remains across the
Northeast. Our next system begins to approach the region late Friday
night into Saturday morning as a southern stream shortwave with
origins from the Pacific move overhead. Ample moisture is available
with this system with PWATs between 1.5-1.75". A digging upper-level
trough will interact with this piece of energy providing the focus
of moderate to locally heavy rainfall Saturday. While surface based
instability is fairly meager at this time, available elevated
instability could help provide the focus for these robust rainfall
rates. There is quite a spread in QPF amounts this far out, however
generally speaking a swath of our area could see up to an inch of
rain (perhaps locally higher). Continued chances for precipitation
remain Saturday night as upper level trough spins overhead. The
forecast for this timeframe has been anything but certain up until
this point, therefore changes in how the cut off low over California
evolves and TS Laura could have implications for us during this
timeframe and into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Taf challenge will be fog at mpv/rut,
followed by additional chances for showers/storms today.
Soundings show shallow and sharp llvl inversion persists at mpv
thru 09z, before lifting as gradient and clouds develop ahead of
approaching front. This will support intervals of fog with lifr
conditions likely, similar type conditions at rut through 09z or
so. Next question will be development of a broken line of
showers with embedded storms impacting slk/mss btwn 07-11z with
mvfr and potential brief 20 minutes of ifr in the heavier
convection. This line of showers/storms will enter the cpv
around 12z and into central VT by 15/16z with potential mvfr/ifr
and localized gusty winds and frequent lighting. Winds generally
5 to 10 knots from the south overnight, shift to the northwest
and become gusty on Tues aftn.  

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A lake wind advisory has been issued for this afternoon and will
likely be continued into the overnight hours. South winds this
morning will quickly change to the northwest by early this 
afternoon and become gusty at 15 to 25 knots with localized 
gusts 30 to 35 knots possible by evening. The cooler air moving 
over warmer water will promote better mixing overnight and 
expect breezy winds to prevail into Weds at 15 to 25 knots. 
Waves 1 to 3 feet this morning will become 2 to 4 feet with some
higher swells possible in the open waters of the broad lake 

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...LaRocca
LONG TERM...LaRocca
AVIATION...Taber
MARINE...

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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May 2010, Week 2
May 2010, Week 1
April 2010, Week 5
April 2010, Week 4
April 2010, Week 3
April 2010, Week 2
April 2010, Week 1
March 2010, Week 5
March 2010, Week 4
March 2010, Week 3
March 2010, Week 2
March 2010, Week 1
February 2010, Week 4
February 2010, Week 3
February 2010, Week 2
February 2010, Week 1
January 2010, Week 5
January 2010, Week 4
January 2010, Week 3
January 2010, Week 2
January 2010, Week 1
December 2009, Week 5
December 2009, Week 4
December 2009, Week 3
December 2009, Week 2
December 2009, Week 1
November 2009, Week 5
November 2009, Week 4
November 2009, Week 3
November 2009, Week 2
November 2009, Week 1
October 2009, Week 5
October 2009, Week 4
October 2009, Week 3
October 2009, Week 2
October 2009, Week 1
September 2009, Week 5
September 2009, Week 4
September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
August 2009, Week 5
August 2009, Week 4
August 2009, Week 3
August 2009, Week 2
August 2009, Week 1
July 2009, Week 5
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July 2009, Week 3
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July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
June 2009, Week 4
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June 2009, Week 2
June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
May 2009, Week 3
May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
April 2009, Week 4
April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
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March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
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February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
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January 2009, Week 3
January 2009, Week 2
January 2009, Week 1
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November 2008, Week 2
November 2008, Week 1
October 2008, Week 5
October 2008, Week 4
October 2008, Week 3
October 2008, Week 2
October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
September 2008, Week 4
September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
August 2008, Week 5
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August 2008, Week 2
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July 2008, Week 3
July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
June 2008, Week 2
June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
May 2008, Week 4
May 2008, Week 3
May 2008, Week 2
May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
February 2008, Week 4
February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
January 2008, Week 5
January 2008, Week 4
January 2008, Week 3
January 2008, Week 2
January 2008, Week 1
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December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
August 2007, Week 2
August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
May 2007, Week 4
May 2007, Week 3
May 2007, Week 2
May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
April 2007, Week 4
April 2007, Week 3
April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
February 2007, Week 3
February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
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January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
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December 2006, Week 3
December 2006, Week 2
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November 2006, Week 3
November 2006, Week 2
November 2006, Week 1
October 2006, Week 5
October 2006, Week 4
October 2006, Week 3
October 2006, Week 2
October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
September 2006, Week 4
September 2006, Week 3
September 2006, Week 2
September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
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August 2006, Week 3
August 2006, Week 2
August 2006, Week 1
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July 2006, Week 3
July 2006, Week 2
July 2006, Week 1
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June 2006, Week 3
June 2006, Week 2
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May 2006, Week 3
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October 2005, Week 3
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October 2005, Week 1
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September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
September 2005, Week 2
September 2005, Week 1
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August 2005, Week 1
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July 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
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May 2005, Week 3
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May 2005, Week 1
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April 2005, Week 3
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March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
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March 2005, Week 1
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June 2004, Week 1
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May 2004, Week 1
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April 2004, Week 3
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April 2004, Week 1
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March 2004, Week 3
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February 2002, Week 1
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