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SKIVT-L  September 2020, Week 4

SKIVT-L September 2020, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 28 Sep 2020 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (229 lines)

Expires:202009282000;;480493
FPUS51 KBTV 280731
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
328 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2020


VTZ006-282000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
328 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2020

.TODAY...Cloudy this morning, then becoming partly sunny. A
20 percent chance of showers. Highs in the upper 70s. South winds
10 to 15 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers until
midnight. Lows in the lower 60s. South winds 10 to 15 mph with
gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the lower 70s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Rain. Lows in the upper 50s. North winds around
10 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Rain. Highs in the lower 60s. West winds around
10 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows around 50. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the lower 60s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 40s. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the upper 50s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 40s. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s. 

$$


Expires:202009281100;;489304
ASUS41 KBTV 281030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-281100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    70  64  81 SE6       29.85F                  
MONTPELIER     LGT RAIN  65  65 100 CALM      29.94F FOG              
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    59  57  93 CALM      29.89F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     64  62  93 MISG      29.89S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   RAIN      65  63  93 CALM      29.94S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    65  65  97 CALM      29.87S                  
RUTLAND*       MOCLDY    70  67  90 SE12      29.89F                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    67  65  93 CALM      29.90S                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      71  64  80 S5        29.84S                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    64  61  88 SW3       29.91S                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    71  64  78 SE3       29.87F                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     63 N/A N/A N2          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     61 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     63 N/A N/A S14         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     68  63  83 S3          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     66  64  94 S16         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     68  66  94 S7          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;480517
FXUS61 KBTV 280732
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
332 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Another breezy and warm day is in store for us as the area 
remains under moist southerly flow. Will see some scattered 
light showers move through this morning as the remnants of a 
weak low pressure system move northward through the forecast 
area. Tonight will be dry with mild temperatures once again. The
weather turns more active Tuesday into Wednesday as a cold 
front pushes across the region, bringing a widespread and much 
needed wetting rainfall to the area. Temperatures will trend 
cooler behind the front for the latter half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 329 AM EDT Monday...Some isolated light showers are moving 
northward through the forecast area this morning as the 
remnants of a weak coastal low near NYC transports Atlantic 
moisture into New England. Also seeing some low to mid-level 
clouds spreading over the area, which will be slow to lift today
given limited solar heating and continued moisture advection 
into the area. The overall weather pattern remains largely 
unchanged today as to what we saw this weekend (dominated by 
moist southerly/southwesterly flow), only slightly increased
clouds and chances for showers...along with weaker winds than 
what we saw yesterday. Have forecast PoPs in the 20 to 40 
percent range this morning as the remnants of the low pressure 
system moves through, followed by decreasing PoPs into the 
afternoon and tonight behind the feature. Winds today will be 
southerly 10-20 mph with some gusts to 25 mph possible right 
over Lake Champlain. Temperatures will once again be in the mid 
70s to low 80s. Lows tonight will be mild again...bottoming out 
in the upper 50s to mid 60s. 

Widespread precipitation chances ramp up through the day on 
Tuesday as waves of low pressure ride northeastward along a 
stalled frontal boundary in the vicinity of the forecast area. 
Tuesday will also be quite windy as the pressure gradient 
tightens between the approaching front to our west and ridging 
to our east over the Atlantic. High temperatures for Tuesday are
quite tricky with the front forecast to stall overhead or just 
upstream. Warmest temperatures will be observed over VT (low to 
mid 70s), while further west have forecast highs in the mid to 
upper 60s over NY. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 329 AM EDT Monday...Tuesday night and the first part of
Wednesday are shaping up to be the wettest period of the week.
Pronounced south to southwest flow aloft will be over the region and
allow for a plume of higher than normal precipitable water values to
move up into our area, especially across Vermont. Have indicated
widespread rain across northern New York and Vermont Tuesday night
through Wednesday morning before axis of steadier precipitation
moves off to the east. Total rainfall amounts Tuesday night and
Wednesday should range from a half inch across the Saint Lawrence
Valley of New York to three quarters to an inch and a quarter over
the remainder of the area. Clouds and precipitation will keep lows
generally in the 50s to around 60 with highs on Wednesday generally
in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 329 AM EDT Monday...Wednesday night and Thursday will feature a
shortwave trough trying to move up the eastern seaboard. As large
upper trough begins to get established over central/eastern Canada
and the eastern third of the country the shortwave trough looks like
it will pass just to our east and keep another wave of steadier
precipitation just east of our area. Can still see getting some
showers and have continued the idea for a chance of showers during
this time period. Definitely something to keep an eye on if our
eastern areas could get clipped by this second wave of steadier
precipitation. We start to see cooler air aloft moving into the
region on Friday associated with large upper trough becoming
established. This should lead to instability driven showers and
forecast soundings for Friday show dry adiabatic lapse rates to at
least 600 millibars indicating instability will be sufficient for
convective showers. Going forecast for a chance of showers on Friday
looks good with best threat occurring over northern New York and
northwest Vermont. Warming aloft going into the weekend along with
drying of the air mass suggests convective precipitation threat
becomes limited and have either dry conditions or a slight chance of
showers. Temperatures over the weekend should be a few degrees below
normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Moist southerly flow prevails for the 24
hr TAF period...leading to some increasing mid and low level
clouds and a few light showers overnight. Most TAF sites are
expected to stay VFR despite these clouds spreading over, 
however have forecast some MVFR ceilings at KMPV between 09Z and
15Z as low- level moisture is trapped closer to the surface 
east of the Green Mountains. After 15Z, widespread VFR
conditions expected through 06Z. 

Winds today will be generally southerly at 6-12 kts. Some areas
of wind shear are possible at northern NY TAF sites after 00Z as
a 40 kt southwesterly low-level jet moves overhead. 

Outlook...

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite
SHRA.
Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Duell
NEAR TERM...Duell
SHORT TERM...Evenson 
LONG TERM...Evenson 
AVIATION...Duell

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May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
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April 2009, Week 5
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April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
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March 2009, Week 2
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February 2009, Week 1
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June 2008, Week 5
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May 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 5
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January 2008, Week 1
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December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
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November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
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October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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May 2005, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
March 2005, Week 4
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October 2004, Week 3
October 2004, Week 2
October 2004, Week 1
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September 2004, Week 3
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September 2004, Week 1
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April 2002, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 3
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February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
January 2002, Week 5
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