Expires:202010132000;;220355
FPUS51 KBTV 130659
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
257 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2020
VTZ006-132000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
257 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2020
.TODAY...Rain. Highs in the lower 50s. Southeast winds 15 to
20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. Rain likely, mainly until midnight.
Lows in the lower 40s. South winds around 10 mph, becoming
northwest with gusts up to 25 mph after midnight. Chance of rain
70 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs around 60. West winds around
10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s.
Southwest winds around 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. South winds
15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 40s.
.FRIDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the mid 50s. Chance of rain
70 percent.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers. Lows in the upper 30s. Chance of rain
80 percent.
.SATURDAY...Rain showers likely. Highs in the upper 40s. Chance
of rain 70 percent.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of rain showers.
Lows in the mid 30s. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 50s.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 40.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s.
$$
Expires:202010131100;;229354
ASUS41 KBTV 131030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2020
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-131100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON CLOUDY 50 40 68 S8 30.03F
MONTPELIER CLOUDY 45 39 79 S12G18 30.13S
MORRISVILLE PTCLDY 47 39 74 SW8 30.08F
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 41 34 76 MISG 30.09F
LYNDONVILLE* MOCLDY 41 34 74 SE6 30.11S
MIDDLEBURY* LGT RAIN 46 41 83 S9G21 30.03F
RUTLAND* LGT RAIN 45 44 97 S13G25 30.06F
SPRINGFIELD LGT RAIN 45 43 93 CALM 30.13S FOG
NEWPORT* CLOUDY 43 36 75 S10 30.08S
BENNINGTON LGT RAIN 50 42 74 VRB7G17 30.01F
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 37 N/A N/A E37 N/A WCI 24
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 52 43 71 SE17 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 52 45 76 S28 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 50 46 87 S20G25 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;223726
FXUS61 KBTV 130812
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
412 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Several rounds of precipitation expected this week into the
upcoming weekend, along with changeable temperature profiles and
periods of breezy conditions anticipated. For today, light rain
will overspread most of the region with total rainfall amounts
ranging from a quarter to three quarters of an inch, with
temperatures holding in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Breezy and
warm conditions are expected on Thursday, before more rain
arrives Friday into Saturday, along with much cooler
temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 353 AM EDT Tuesday...Water vapor shows narrow axis of
enhanced mid lvl moisture acrs the eastern Great Lakes, while
best 5h energy is lifting northward into central Canada.
Meanwhile, additional moisture is advecting northward along the
East Coast, associated with developing sfc low pres over off the
southern NJ coast. Model guidance has trended much less with qpf
acrs our cwa today, as best moisture/dynamics splits our cwa
either to the northwest or to our east. Still thinking enough
sfc convergence and mid lvl moisture/dynamics with occluded
front will produce a period of rain for the SLV/Dacks this
morning. Meanwhile, additional moisture advects into our
central/eastern VT zns on developing se llvl jet of 35 to 45
knots, with sfc low pres crossing Cape Cod by this evening.
Given the progressive nature, no closed 7h/5h circulations, and
limited or late phasing with approaching occluded front,
thinking highest qpf will be displaced to our east. Overall, qpf
generally ranging from 0.10 to 0.25 for SLV/Dack/CPV with
localized amounts near 0.50 possible, while se upslope regions
of the Green Mtns received 0.25 to 0.75. Western slopes given
orientation of se llvl jet will experience the typical shadowing
with qpf amounts generally less 0.25 to entire event. Soundings
support localized gusts up to 30 knots in favorable cap
locations along the western slopes today. Temps with
clouds/precip wl struggle in the upper 40s to mid 50s most
locations. Tonight, soundings show deep saturation below
developing subsidence inversion, supporting the idea of low
clouds and areas of drizzle, especially higher trrn. Given
expected overcast skies and light winds/limited advection,
thinking lows mainly in the upper 30s to mid/upper 40s. The fcst
challenge for Weds will be how quickly clouds dissipate and
impacts on temps. Soundings show subsidence inversion slowly
lowering with well defined drying above 850mb, supporting some
summits breaking out by sunrise. This clearing trend looks to
continue on Weds, before addition mid lvl moisture redevelops
acrs the region. Progged llvl thermal profiles support near
normal highs in the mid 50s to l/m 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 353 AM EDT Tuesday...Weak high pressure will shift eastward
during the overnight hours on Wednesday with a rapidly increasing
pressure gradient developing over the region as a low pressure
quickly strengthens across southern Ontario. The latest NAM3 and
BTV4 high res models show strong southwesterly winds developing by
daybreak on Thursday with widespread gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range
with stronger winds expected at the higher summits and across Lake
Champlain. A strong push of warm air advection will accompany the
southwesterly winds which will allow temperatures to warm nicely
into the mid 60s to lower 70s Thursday afternoon. Initially,
scattered cloud cover is expected across the region but cloud cover
will overspread the region during the afternoon hours as a cold
front moves toward the region. Rain showers are expected to work
into the St. Lawrence Valley Thursday afternoon but likely won't
make it much further east as the upper level trough pivots overhead
and the front begins to shear apart. A couple of scattered showers
may move into Vermont Thursday night but will drop rainfall totals
of less than a tenth of an inch. The gusty winds seen during the
daylight hours should abate rapidly Thursday night as the pressure
gradient relaxes as the front shears apart.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 353 AM EDT Tuesday...Friday is shaping out to be a very wet day
across the North Country as a potent cold front pushes through the
region. If you recall, the cold front from Thursday will shear apart
over northern New York but a second cold front will bring widespread
moderate to event heavy rainfall to the region. There is remarkable
agreement between all global models with rainfall overspread the
North Country late Friday morning as strong moisture convergence,
frontogenesis and large scale lift all coincide with one another. As
the upper level trough continues to pivot, a strong area of PVA will
track across the region with strong jet dynamics as the left exit
region of the upper level jet moves overhead. This large scale
ascent coupled with strong moisture convergence and frontogenesis at
the surface will support deep warm cloud depth layers of around 6500
ft. If you average out the GFS, ECMWF and CMC guidance for Friday
and Saturday you end up getting widespread 1.5" inches of rain
across northern New York with 2.5"+ across much of Vermont. While
it's still 4 days out, the strong model agreement has allowed us to
introduce 70-90% PoPs and mention moderate rainfall in the forecast.
This will be something to watch in the coming days as we will need
see how much rain falls over a given period of time. The good news
is that we remain in a rainfall deficit overall but there are some
locations that have seen decent rainfall over the past 2 weeks.
For those snow lovers out there, we've got some good news. If you
want to venture to elevations above 3500 ft on Saturday there is a
very good chance you'll see at least a rain/snow mix if not all snow
as models show 850 mb temperature more than cool enough to support
snow at higher elevations. We won't speculate on snow accumulations
just yet but there could be some decent accumulations depending on
the degree of cold air advection behind the cold front. All
precipitation will taper off by sunrise on Sunday with transient
high pressure situating across the region before quickly exiting
east on Monday which will allow for dry and seasonable weather on
Sunday and Monday. The trough over the central US will once again
amplify and another slug of moisture will move toward the region on
Tuesday. As long as the trough remains anchored to our west, we
should continue to see seasonable temperatures with plenty of shower
activity.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Clouds continue to thicken and lower
from sw to ne acrs our taf sites this morning with mvfr cigs at
mpv/rut. Expect areas of light rain to develop btwn 06-08z this
morning with cigs trending toward mvfr at most sites. Breezy se
gap winds are anticipated at Rut with localized gusts up to 28
knots possible. Otherwise a period of moderate rain with vis
btwn 3-5sm possible btwn 12-18z today, with lowering cigs toward
ifr likely at MPV/SLK/MSS and eventually BTV/RUT by late
aftn/early evening. As llvl jet increases from the se at 35 to
40 knots areas of enhanced llvl wind shear likely with
moderate turbulence possible, especially near trrn.
Outlook...
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...Taber
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