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SKIVT-L  October 2020, Week 2

SKIVT-L October 2020, Week 2

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Wed, 14 Oct 2020 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (276 lines)

Expires:202010142000;;275794
FPUS51 KBTV 140955
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
553 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020


VTZ006-142000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
553 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020

.TODAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. West winds around
10 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly clear until midnight, then becoming partly
cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Light and variable winds, becoming
south 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph after midnight. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy in the morning, then partly sunny with
a slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Breezy, warmer with
highs in the upper 60s. South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to
35 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 40s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with
gusts up to 25 mph. 
.FRIDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the mid 50s. Southeast winds
around 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Rain. Rain may be heavy at times. Lows in the
upper 30s. Chance of rain 90 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Rain. Rain may be heavy at times. Highs in the upper
40s. Chance of rain 80 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear with a 30 percent chance of rain
showers. Lows in the lower 30s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy and breezy. Lows in the lower 40s. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s. 

$$


Expires:202010141100;;277433
ASUS41 KBTV 141031
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-141100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTCLDY    47  44  90 CALM      29.88R FOG              
MONTPELIER     CLEAR     48  45  89 NW7       29.89R                  
MORRISVILLE    PTCLDY    49  45  86 VRB5      29.86S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     45  44  97 MISG      29.84R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      45  43  91 CALM      29.86S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FOG       47  47  99 CALM      29.89R VSB 1/4          
RUTLAND*       MOCLDY    49  49 100 NW5       29.89R                  
SPRINGFIELD    MOCLDY    52  46  80 W6        29.87R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      46  43  87 NW3       29.86S                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    46  44  93 CALM      29.92R                  
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     39 N/A N/A NW41        N/A  WCI  26          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     52  48  87 W2          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     54  52  94 E6          N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     48  48 100 S5          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;275742
FXUS61 KBTV 140948
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
548 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Low clouds and patchy fog should burn off this morning with
increasing amounts of sunshine this afternoon, as temperatures
warm to near seasonable levels. Warmer and windy conditions
develop on Thursday, before our next widespread rainfall occurs
on Friday into Saturday. As temperature profiles cool some wet
snow is possible across the summits on Saturday morning. Some
rises on streams and rivers are expected this weekend, as
rainfall totals range from one half to two and half inches
across our region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 545 AM EDT Wednesday...After reviewing the 06z data have
gone ahead and issued wind advisory for northwest facing slopes
of the northern Dacks, SLV, and Grand Isle County, VT from 5 AM
to 8 PM Thurs. Guidance continues to strengthen 925mb to 850mb
winds acrs our northern cwa, with progged values in the 55 to 65
knot range. The period of strongest winds look to occur in two
rounds, first btwn 6 AM and 10 AM for the northern dacks and
second max acrs the slv btwn 3 PM and 7 PM. Soundings data
support localized gusts up to 50 mph possible in the advisory
area, along with the potential for some isolated power outages.
Otherwise, rest of fcst in good shape.

Fcst challenge this morning will be dissipation 
of low clouds/fog, followed by wind potential on Thursday. Water
vapor shows large scale subsidence aloft acrs our fa, while 
plenty of llvl moisture is trapped below inversion as northwest 
flow prevails. Latest nighttime microphysics shows summits 
starting to breakout above the low clouds, indicating drying 
aloft is working toward the sfc. In addition, west to northwest 
winds have helped to advect slightly drier bl air into our cwa 
this morning, which should promote low cloud/fog dissipation by 
14z. Progged 925mb temps range btwn 8-10c this aftn, supporting 
highs upper 50s to mid 60s. Tonight, temps will drop quickly 
early with mainly clear skies and light winds, however gradient 
sharpens aft 04z and south winds develop. These increasing winds
and some mid lvl moisture advection will result in temps slowly
rising aft midnight acrs northern NY into parts of VT. Coolest 
valleys will be NEK where lows approach freezing, while CPV/SLV 
hold in the mid/upper 40s.


Thursday...Sfc gradient increases as 992mb low pres tracks
toward Hudson Bay and strong 925mb to 850mb waa develops
associated with potent llvl jet. Latest guidance indicates 850mb
sw jet of 50 to 60 knots angling acrs northern NY into VT, 
while 925mb winds of 40 to 50 knots are progged btwn 12-18z
Thurs. Soundings show depth of mix layer increasing as sfc 
heating and llvl lapse rates steepen, supporting localized 
gusts 35 to 40 knots possible. These favorable regions of 
gustier winds include northwest facing slopes of the northern 
dacks, parts of the central/northern CPV, and over the slv 
associated with enhanced channeled sw to ne flow up the valley. 
Elsewhere, breezy winds of 10 to 20 gusts up to 30 knots 
possible. Progged 925mb temps surge btwn 14-16c, supporting 
highs well into the upper 60s to mid 70s most locations. A few 
upper 70s possible, if more sun occurs. Ribbon of 850 to 500mb 
enhanced moisture enters northern NY by 18z and spreads into VT 
by 21z, with some light rain showers developing toward 00z acrs 
the SLV/Dacks. Have continued to mention chc pops to cover this 
potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 346 AM EDT Wednesday...A cold front will enter the St. Lawrence
Valley Thursday night and will bring some rain showers to northern
New York during the overnight hours. The low pressure system this
front is attached to will be tracking across northern Quebec and
will be weakening as it continues to shift to the north and east.
This should really limit the dynamics across the region and is
expected to limit rainfall initially as all guidance shows the front
stalling and shearing apart. Friday for the most part is expected to
be dry as the lack of any appreciable forcing should only support
some scattered shower activity. By late Friday afternoon, steady
rain is expected to move into southern Vermont and begin to spread
north as a decent rain event begins to unfold.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 346 AM EDT Wednesday...The upper level trough across the Ohio
River Valley Friday night and as it does so, it'll take on a
negative tilt. The once washed up cold front will begin to slide
eastward with all guidance showing strong frontogenetic forcing
along the leading edge of the front. This area of surface
convergence has shifted eastward compared to models 24 hours ago
which is do to a developing surface low off the New England
coastline overnight Friday. This small feature will have a big
impact on our rainfall totals across the region as it'll
significantly impact the moisture advection across the northeastern
US. Ultimately, this will lead to a tight gradient in rainfall
amounts with the highest amounts occurring across eastern Vermont and
the lowest amounts across the St. Lawrence Valley. We are still
looking at very favorable jet dynamics, moisture convergence and
surface convergence which is expected to bring a period of moderate
to heavy rainfall between 8 PM Friday night through 11 AM Saturday.
During this time, rainfall amounts between a half of an inch across
the St. Lawrence County to nearly an inch and a half of rain across
western Vermont is expected. Eastern Vermont will likely be the
winner of the rainfall lottery thanks to the forecasted track of the
surface low and could see 2-2.5 inches of rain. Looking at some of
the Meteorological Model Ensemble River Forecasts (MMEFS) run by the
Northeast River Forecast Center, we will likely see some decent
rises on Vermont rivers given the rainfall. In addition, there is a
small chance (less than 20%) at this time that a few rivers may rise
above minor flood stage. This is something we will continue to keep
an eye on in coming days but widespread flooding is not anticipated
at this time.

It's still looking like we could see snow on the back end of the
system at higher elevations. The NAM, GFS, ECMWF, CMC and UKMET all
show a stripe of snow across the northern Adirondacks and the Green
Mountains with a snow level somewhere between 3500 and 4000 ft. We
ran some preliminary grids and it looks like the northern
Adirondacks could see 2-5 inches at the higher peaks with 1-2 inches
across the higher peaks of the Green Mountains. Given the ground
temperature is well above freezing as we've seen only a handful of
freezes this fall, accumulating snowfall is not expected near sea-
level although some rain/snow mix may fall as low as 2500 ft.

Given the progressive nature of the upper level low, rainfall will
come to a quick end Saturday afternoon and will be replace by a 1030
mb high pressure Saturday night. After a dry day on Sunday, we will
return to a wet and unsettled period of weather through the first
half of next week. Another frontal system looks poised to enter the
region during the first half of next week but there are huge
discrepancies across the global guidance as the flow remains quite
amplified.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Another very challenging aviation fcst
with conditions crntly ranging from vfr to vlifr at mss/pbg.
Expecting the highest potential of ifr/lifr conditions to
prevail at MPV/SLK/MSS and RUT with intervals of ifr possible at
BTV/PBG. As northwest winds develop, slightly drier air develops
and thinking this should improve conditions at PBG by 08z and by
09z at BTV. However, upslope flow and moisture trapped below
subsidence inversion will promote areas of low clouds/br at
slk/mpv and rut thru 12z. Conditions improve after 12z with
trends toward vfr likely, as mixing develops and low clouds
dissipate. Localized wind gusts up to 20 knots possible btwn
15z-20z today at most sites, before light and trrn driven winds
develop after sunset this evening. 

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Definite RA, Likely
SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for VTZ001.
NY...Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ026>028-
     030-031-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...Taber

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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February 2011, Week 3
February 2011, Week 2
February 2011, Week 1
January 2011, Week 5
January 2011, Week 4
January 2011, Week 3
January 2011, Week 2
January 2011, Week 1
December 2010, Week 5
December 2010, Week 4
December 2010, Week 3
December 2010, Week 2
December 2010, Week 1
November 2010, Week 5
November 2010, Week 4
November 2010, Week 3
November 2010, Week 2
November 2010, Week 1
October 2010, Week 5
October 2010, Week 4
October 2010, Week 3
October 2010, Week 2
October 2010, Week 1
September 2010, Week 5
September 2010, Week 4
September 2010, Week 3
September 2010, Week 2
September 2010, Week 1
August 2010, Week 5
August 2010, Week 4
August 2010, Week 3
August 2010, Week 2
August 2010, Week 1
July 2010, Week 5
July 2010, Week 4
July 2010, Week 3
July 2010, Week 2
July 2010, Week 1
June 2010, Week 5
June 2010, Week 4
June 2010, Week 3
June 2010, Week 2
June 2010, Week 1
May 2010, Week 5
May 2010, Week 4
May 2010, Week 3
May 2010, Week 2
May 2010, Week 1
April 2010, Week 5
April 2010, Week 4
April 2010, Week 3
April 2010, Week 2
April 2010, Week 1
March 2010, Week 5
March 2010, Week 4
March 2010, Week 3
March 2010, Week 2
March 2010, Week 1
February 2010, Week 4
February 2010, Week 3
February 2010, Week 2
February 2010, Week 1
January 2010, Week 5
January 2010, Week 4
January 2010, Week 3
January 2010, Week 2
January 2010, Week 1
December 2009, Week 5
December 2009, Week 4
December 2009, Week 3
December 2009, Week 2
December 2009, Week 1
November 2009, Week 5
November 2009, Week 4
November 2009, Week 3
November 2009, Week 2
November 2009, Week 1
October 2009, Week 5
October 2009, Week 4
October 2009, Week 3
October 2009, Week 2
October 2009, Week 1
September 2009, Week 5
September 2009, Week 4
September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
August 2009, Week 5
August 2009, Week 4
August 2009, Week 3
August 2009, Week 2
August 2009, Week 1
July 2009, Week 5
July 2009, Week 4
July 2009, Week 3
July 2009, Week 2
July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
June 2009, Week 4
June 2009, Week 3
June 2009, Week 2
June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
May 2009, Week 3
May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
April 2009, Week 4
April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
March 2009, Week 4
March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
February 2009, Week 4
February 2009, Week 3
February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
January 2009, Week 5
January 2009, Week 4
January 2009, Week 3
January 2009, Week 2
January 2009, Week 1
December 2008, Week 5
December 2008, Week 4
December 2008, Week 3
December 2008, Week 2
December 2008, Week 1
November 2008, Week 5
November 2008, Week 4
November 2008, Week 3
November 2008, Week 2
November 2008, Week 1
October 2008, Week 5
October 2008, Week 4
October 2008, Week 3
October 2008, Week 2
October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
September 2008, Week 4
September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
August 2008, Week 5
August 2008, Week 4
August 2008, Week 3
August 2008, Week 2
August 2008, Week 1
July 2008, Week 5
July 2008, Week 4
July 2008, Week 3
July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
June 2008, Week 2
June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
May 2008, Week 4
May 2008, Week 3
May 2008, Week 2
May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
February 2008, Week 4
February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
January 2008, Week 5
January 2008, Week 4
January 2008, Week 3
January 2008, Week 2
January 2008, Week 1
December 2007, Week 5
December 2007, Week 4
December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
August 2007, Week 2
August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
May 2007, Week 4
May 2007, Week 3
May 2007, Week 2
May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
April 2007, Week 4
April 2007, Week 3
April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
February 2007, Week 3
February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
January 2007, Week 4
January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
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December 2006, Week 3
December 2006, Week 2
December 2006, Week 1
November 2006, Week 5
November 2006, Week 4
November 2006, Week 3
November 2006, Week 2
November 2006, Week 1
October 2006, Week 5
October 2006, Week 4
October 2006, Week 3
October 2006, Week 2
October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
September 2006, Week 4
September 2006, Week 3
September 2006, Week 2
September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
August 2006, Week 4
August 2006, Week 3
August 2006, Week 2
August 2006, Week 1
July 2006, Week 5
July 2006, Week 4
July 2006, Week 3
July 2006, Week 2
July 2006, Week 1
June 2006, Week 5
June 2006, Week 4
June 2006, Week 3
June 2006, Week 2
June 2006, Week 1
May 2006, Week 5
May 2006, Week 4
May 2006, Week 3
May 2006, Week 2
May 2006, Week 1
April 2006, Week 5
April 2006, Week 4
April 2006, Week 3
April 2006, Week 2
April 2006, Week 1
March 2006, Week 5
March 2006, Week 4
March 2006, Week 3
March 2006, Week 2
March 2006, Week 1
February 2006, Week 4
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February 2006, Week 2
February 2006, Week 1
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January 2006, Week 3
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January 2006, Week 1
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November 2005, Week 3
November 2005, Week 2
November 2005, Week 1
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October 2005, Week 4
October 2005, Week 3
October 2005, Week 2
October 2005, Week 1
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September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
September 2005, Week 2
September 2005, Week 1
August 2005, Week 5
August 2005, Week 4
August 2005, Week 3
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August 2005, Week 1
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July 2005, Week 3
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July 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 3
June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
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May 2005, Week 3
May 2005, Week 2
May 2005, Week 1
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April 2005, Week 4
April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
February 2005, Week 4
February 2005, Week 3
February 2005, Week 2
February 2005, Week 1
January 2005, Week 5
January 2005, Week 4
January 2005, Week 3
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January 2005, Week 1
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November 2004, Week 2
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October 2004, Week 4
October 2004, Week 3
October 2004, Week 2
October 2004, Week 1
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September 2004, Week 4
September 2004, Week 3
September 2004, Week 2
September 2004, Week 1
August 2004, Week 5
August 2004, Week 4
August 2004, Week 3
August 2004, Week 2
August 2004, Week 1
July 2004, Week 5
July 2004, Week 4
July 2004, Week 3
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July 2004, Week 1
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June 2004, Week 4
June 2004, Week 3
June 2004, Week 2
June 2004, Week 1
May 2004, Week 5
May 2004, Week 4
May 2004, Week 3
May 2004, Week 2
May 2004, Week 1
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April 2004, Week 3
April 2004, Week 2
April 2004, Week 1
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March 2004, Week 4
March 2004, Week 3
March 2004, Week 2
March 2004, Week 1
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February 2004, Week 3
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February 2004, Week 1
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January 2004, Week 4
January 2004, Week 3
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January 2004, Week 1
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December 2003, Week 2
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November 2003, Week 3
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November 2003, Week 1
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October 2003, Week 3
October 2003, Week 2
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March 2003, Week 3
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November 2002, Week 3
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November 2002, Week 1
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October 2002, Week 3
October 2002, Week 2
October 2002, Week 1
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September 2002, Week 3
September 2002, Week 2
September 2002, Week 1
August 2002, Week 5
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August 2002, Week 3
August 2002, Week 2
August 2002, Week 1
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July 2002, Week 4
July 2002, Week 3
July 2002, Week 2
July 2002, Week 1
June 2002, Week 5
June 2002, Week 4
June 2002, Week 3
June 2002, Week 2
June 2002, Week 1
May 2002, Week 5
May 2002, Week 4
May 2002, Week 3
May 2002, Week 2
May 2002, Week 1
April 2002, Week 5
April 2002, Week 4
April 2002, Week 3
April 2002, Week 2
April 2002, Week 1
March 2002, Week 5
March 2002, Week 4
March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
February 2002, Week 4
February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
January 2002, Week 5
January 2002, Week 4
January 2002, Week 3
January 2002, Week 2
January 2002, Week 1
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December 2001, Week 4
December 2001, Week 3
December 2001, Week 2
December 2001, Week 1
November 2001, Week 5
November 2001, Week 4
November 2001, Week 3
November 2001, Week 2
November 2001, Week 1
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October 2001, Week 3
October 2001, Week 2
October 2001, Week 1
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September 2001, Week 3
September 2001, Week 2
September 2001, Week 1
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August 2001, Week 3
August 2001, Week 2
August 2001, Week 1
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July 2001, Week 2
July 2001, Week 1
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June 2001, Week 3
June 2001, Week 2
June 2001, Week 1
May 2001, Week 5
May 2001, Week 4
May 2001, Week 3
May 2001, Week 2
May 2001, Week 1
April 2001, Week 5
April 2001, Week 4
April 2001, Week 3
April 2001, Week 2
April 2001, Week 1
March 2001, Week 5
March 2001, Week 4
March 2001, Week 3
March 2001, Week 2
March 2001, Week 1
February 2001, Week 4
February 2001, Week 3
February 2001, Week 2
February 2001, Week 1
January 2001, Week 5
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January 2001, Week 3
January 2001, Week 2
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December 1999, Week 5
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December 1998, Week 5
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