Expires:202010102000;;074257
FPUS51 KBTV 101048
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
645 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020


VTZ006-102000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
646 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020

.TODAY...Partly sunny. Showers with a chance of thunderstorms
this afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds this
afternoon. Warmer with highs in the upper 60s. Southwest winds
15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy with rain showers with a chance of
thunderstorms until midnight, then partly cloudy with a chance of
rain showers after midnight. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty
winds until midnight. Breezy with lows in the upper 30s.
Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph, diminishing to 10 to 15 mph after
midnight. Chance of rain 90 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny in the morning, then clearing. Highs in
the lower 50s. North winds around 10 mph in the morning, becoming
light and variable. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 30s. East winds 10 to
15 mph. 
.COLUMBUS DAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s. Southeast
winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Rain likely. Lows in the lower 40s. Chance of
rain 70 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Rain likely. Highs in the upper 50s. Chance of rain
70 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain.
Lows in the mid 40s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the upper 50s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 40s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the upper 50s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 40s. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the lower 50s. 

$$


Expires:202010101100;;073781
ASUS41 KBTV 101030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-101100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    61  42  49 S22G29    29.76F                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    59  41  51 S13       29.83F                  
MORRISVILLE    MOCLDY    60  42  51 S12       29.76F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     54  42  64 MISG      29.79F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      50  41  71 SE6       29.82F                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      58  42  55 S14G22    29.85F                  
RUTLAND*       MOCLDY    60  42  51 E6        29.89S                  
SPRINGFIELD    MOCLDY    40  37  89 CALM      29.91F                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      61  40  46 S13G23    29.71S                  
NEWPORT*       MOCLDY    52  39  62 S10       29.75F                  
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     45  40  82 VRB3      29.94S                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     45 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     39 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     52 N/A N/A W40         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     61  48  63 S22G36      N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     59  50  72 S32         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     57  46  67 S21         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;067066
FXUS61 KBTV 100805
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
405 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy today with temperatures warming near to above 70 degrees
across the North Country. A strong cold front will impact our 
area this afternoon and provide a focus for the development of 
showers and thunderstorms. A few storms will be capable of 
strong, gusty winds, small hail, frequent lightning, and brief, 
heavy downpours. Drier and cooler conditions return for Sunday 
and Monday, with warmer temperatures and on and off chances for 
showers through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Saturday...Model trends have continued to depict an
active day for our forecast area. The Storm Prediction Center places
our region in a slight severe risk outlook (Level 2 of 5),
indicating the potential for short-lived, scattered strong to severe
storms.

Deep-layer warm advection is ongoing as upper level ridging
continues eastwards. Temperatures at this stage of the night are
remaining steady or warming some. Over our area will be a bit of
squeeze play between surface high pressure moving off the Mid-
Atlantic Coast and a northern stream area of low pressure moving
into Quebec Province. Strong pressure gradients will produce 50 to
60 knot 850mb winds. Fortunately, poor low-level lapse rates should
keep these winds from efficiently mixing to the surface, but it will
be a breezy day with steady south winds and 20 to 30 mph gusts,
perhaps up to 35 mph over eastern mountain slopes and through the
valleys. The strong LLJ will help to bring in anomalous warm with a
source air mass from Texas. This will send temperatures into 
the upper 60s to mid 70s across our forecast area.

Towards noon, convection will begin to blossom as heights begin to
fall with a prefrontal trough over the forecast area. Instability of
around 250-750 (maybe even a few spots approaching 1000 J/kg) will
develop. Notable is the strong frontogenesis, with a strong
baroclinic zone setting up across our forecast area between the
anomalous warmth and the potent cold front. Additionally, mid-levels
are expected to be rather unstable with 700-500 hPa lapse rates
around 8 C/km. Despite the better vorticity and better low-level
convergence/upper divergence positioned to our north, along with 
poor low-level lapse rates, convective allowing models agree on
the development of vigorous convection this afternoon. 0-6km shear
will be upwards of 50kts across our forecast area, so this convection
should try to organize. Interestingly, the experimental FV3 CAM
depicts some discrete cellular activity. Perhaps, some elevated
supercells will be possible at the early stages of today's
convection. 2-5km updraft helicity values will approach 75 m2/s2,
indicating the potential for rotating updrafts and supercell 
composite numbers indicate this potential as well. So some hail 
can't be discounted if we see some elevated supercells. Nor can 
a tornado be ruled out, but the poor low-level lapse rates make
this potential very low. Towards 3-5 PM, we should see showers 
and thunderstorms organize into clusters or form a QLCS. There 
could be a few bowing segments possible as well, though as SPC 
has noted, parallel flow to convection should limit bowing 
potential. The main threat with the QLCS will be strong to 
locally damaging winds up to 60 mph. The QLCS should then push 
southwards during the evening hours and gradually decay after 5 
PM with loss of daytime heating. There should be one last line 
of gusty showers that develops associated with the wind shift of
the cold front around 8 PM or so, and then our atmosphere 
rapidly dries. So elevated precipitation is not expected to 
last.

Temperatures should tumble into the mid 30s to low 40s as cold air
advects across the region behind the front. Some clouds are expected
to linger behind the front, but going into Sunday afternoon, clouds
should diminish. This will give way to a nice fall day with highs in
the upper 40s to mid 50s and clear, blue skies. Light, north winds
at 5 to 10 mph are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 403 AM EDT Saturday...Complex scenario setting up for the start
of the work week as the remnants of Hurricane Delta move northward
up the Appalachians and an upper trough/surface front swing across
the northern Plains. High pressure moving out over eastern ME into
the Maritimes will keep the bulk of Delta's remnants to our south,
but expect increasing moisture through the short term period. This
starts Sunday night as the low-level flow turns to the east and
southeast between the retreating high and Delta's remnant low.
Meanwhile, west to southwest winds continue aloft. This makes for a
tricky temperature forecast Sunday night as a temperature inversion
sets up. Moisture increases overnight as well, as does the southeast
flow. The question is how quickly temperatures can drop off Sunday
evening before clouds and winds increase, limiting further cooling
and/or perhaps even allowing some warming toward daybreak. Note that
the MOS guidance is going very chilly with Sunday night/Monday
morning lows - the NAM MOS has a low of 16 at KSLK - but feel that
this is likely overdone. Still, have lowered overnight minimums just
a bit from the previous forecast, ranging from the upper 20s in the
Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom to the mid and upper 30s in the
Champlain and southern St Lawrence Valleys. With dry air in place,
current thinking is the overnight hours will remain precipitation-
free.

For Monday and Monday night...moisture continues to increase with
rain spreading northward through the day. Southeast winds will
strengthen under the southwest flow aloft, and we're starting to see
indications that there could be gusty downslope winds on the western
side of the Greens as is favored under this sort of regime. The
southeast flow will likely keep areas east of the Greens on the
cooler side as well, with some spots likely struggling to reach 50.
Elsewhere, highs in the mid and upper 50s can be expected. The
steadiest/heaviest rain will occur over central/southern portions of
our forecast area. PWATs surge late in the day and overnight Monday
night ahead of the digging upper shortwave moving in from the west,
expanding rain from west to east overnight. Breezy south to
southeast winds will persist through at least the first part of the
night. Lows will be mainly in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 403 AM EDT Saturday...The aforementioned cold front will push
through on Tuesday, briefly ushering in drier air and bringing the
steady rain to an end from west to east during the afternoon. We
will continue to see unsettled weather through the remainder of the
week however. High pressure will move to our south while an upper
low spins over the Prairie Provinces and eventually out over Hudson
Bay/northern Quebec. This will keep us under west to southwest flow
through the week as we remain on the low's periphery, with a series
of upper shortwaves quickly scooting around the low. As is usually
the case, models are showing differences in the exact
timing/placement/magnitude of these waves, but overall expect rounds
of showers through the week, along with near to slightly above
normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Main aviation concern for the near term
will be continued low-level wind shear as a 40-60 kt southwesterly
low-level jet will remain overhead tonight, so have continued 
with mention of low-level wind shear at all TAF sites tonight. 
The core of the low-level jet will remain in place through 15Z,
but will start to gradually weaken after 10Z. Surface winds 
will gradually increase overnight, with south winds as 7 to 16
knots and gusting to 17 to 25 knots. After 15Z, winds should
increase a bit more through 19Z before a cold front develops.

Sky conditions will remain VFR through the night with just some
sct/bkn mid and upper-level clouds. VFR skies will eventually
trend to MVFR with isolated IFR after 18Z as showers and
thunderstorms develop over the forecast area. A couple bands are
expected, but the most likely band of storms should develop near
KSLK and extend northeast towards KBTV around 18Z, and then sag
south. This should exit KRUT around 00Z. Storms will be capable
of strong, gusty winds and small hail. Heavy rain could reduce
visibilities to 2SM - 4SM in storms. All activity should come 
to a close around 01Z- 03Z.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Columbus Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely RA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecast south winds have materialized with 15-25 knot sustained
south to southeast winds and gusts of 25 to 30 knots. These
winds. Waves will build from 1 to 3 feet this evening to 4 to 6
feet overnight. Southerly winds will peak Saturday morning with
gusts to 35 knots, diminishing to 25 knots in the afternoon. In
addition to the windy conditions expected tomorrow, some 
thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon. These 
thunderstorms could contain locally strong winds of variable 
directions and frequent cloud- to- ground lightning. Please stay
weather aware if planning to head to the Lake Saturday.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Duell/Haynes
MARINE...Duell

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