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SKIVT-L  October 2020, Week 2

SKIVT-L October 2020, Week 2

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sun, 11 Oct 2020 06:50:03 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (219 lines)

Expires:202010112000;;116638
FPUS51 KBTV 110707
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
304 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2020


VTZ006-112000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
305 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2020

.TODAY...Partly sunny this morning, then clearing. Highs in the
upper 40s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Light and
variable winds, becoming east around 10 mph after midnight. 
.COLUMBUS DAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s. Southeast
winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the lower 40s. Southeast
winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain
70 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the mid 50s. South winds
15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 30s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the lower 60s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 40s. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the mid 50s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 30s. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of rain
showers. Highs around 50. 

$$


Expires:202010111100;;125286
ASUS41 KBTV 111030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-111100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    46  38  73 N13       30.15R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    42  34  73 N8        30.15R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    43  36  76 N7        30.14R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     43  32  65 MISG      30.09R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   MOCLDY    39  32  75 W6        30.12R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    45  35  69 N13G22    30.12R                  
RUTLAND*       MOCLDY    46  39  76 NW7       30.10R                  
SPRINGFIELD    MOCLDY    48  38  68 NW5       30.07R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      37  30  75 NW8       30.16R WCI  31          
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     45  39  79 NW5       30.06R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     41 N/A N/A NW5         N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     39 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     37 N/A N/A N5          N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A    N/A N/A N/A W25         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     46  37  71 NW9         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     46  37  71 N20         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     48  36  61 NW18G28     N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;117104
FXUS61 KBTV 110715
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
315 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A noticeable temperature change will be seen today as highs only 
climb into the low to mid 50s with clearing skies. A warming trend 
will be observed through the first half of next week. The next best 
chance of rainfall will be Monday night and Tuesday as another cold 
front approaches the region. Cooler temperatures follow the front 
for the second half of next week but the weather will remain 
unsettled with multiple chances for showers in the coming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 315 AM EDT Sunday...Quiet weather the next two days. Cooler air
continues to gradually advect into region, but still struggling to
make it towards southern Vermont. Springfield, VT only just fell
below 60 as of 2 AM. Most should wake up to temperatures in the mid
30s to mid 40s. Stable wave clouds against the mountain spines will
gradually thin out over the course of the day, giving way to blue
skies in the afternoon. Cool, northerly flow should keep our
forecast area generally in the 50s today. Altogether, it should be a
real nice Sunday.

For Sunday night, light southerly return flow begins with some high
clouds streaming in. This should prevent efficient radiational
cooling, but it will still be a cooler than normal night, with lows
in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Temperatures rebound in to the mid 50s
to near 60 during the afternoon. Forecast trends have been to keep
moisture further south as high pressure bridges across our area. So
have trimmed back PoPs and sky cover. Still a slight chance of
showers mentioned across the southern border of our forecast area of
responsibility.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will continue to pull away to the east as an upper 
trough/surface front approach from the west. Moisture lifts 
northward ahead of the aforementioned boundary, allowing showers to 
overspread the North Country overnight. Precipitation will continue 
into Tuesday morning as the front quickly crosses the region from 
west to east. Drier air will follow the front, bringing showers to 
an end late in the afternoon/evening hours. Rainfall totals will 
generally be a quarter to a half inch. 

The other concern for the period will be breezy south and southeast 
winds as a 40+kt 925mb jet lifts over the region ahead of the 
approaching front. This jet has slowed its northward progression 
compared to 24 hours ago, and the core will be moving through 
overnight, limiting mixing potential. However, still anticipate 
breezy conditions along the western side of the Greens, and to a 
lesser extent, the Adirondacks. Gusts up to 35 mph will be possible, 
with 45+ mph possible in the higher terrain. This increasing south 
flow will also result in temperatures remaining steady or even 
rising overnight, with lows to occur Monday evening. The coldest 
readings will be in the Northeast Kingdom where clouds/showers/winds 
will hold off the longest; mid to upper 30s can be expected there. 
Elsewhere, lows will be in the lower to mid 40s. Tuesday's highs 
will mainly be in the 50s, with a few spots topping out around 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The weather remains unsettled through much of the week as a large 
upper low over the Prairie Provinces slowly slides southeast toward 
the Northeast CONUS. We will remain under west-southwest flow on the 
periphery of the low as it approaches, allowing a series of 
shortwaves rotating around the low to cross over or very near our 
region. These waves are often very hard to pinpoint in timing, 
placement, and intensity, with model solutions often differing from 
model to model as run to run. At this time, the best chance for 
precipitation looks to be late Thursday into Friday, when an upper 
trough digs to our west, developing a surface low over the Upper 
Midwest that then moves northward to the west of the St Lawrence 
Valley. This allows the longer-wave trough to dig to our west, with 
additional shortwaves quickly scooting over the North Country 
through the weekend. Hence shower chances exist through much of the 
latter half of the week. Temperatures look to remain near or 
slightly above seasonal normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Cold front has shifted south with
precipitation chances over. Cloud heights range between
2500-4500ft agl. KSLK is the only terminal at MVFR though, and
this will likely continue through about 10Z before flipping
between MVFR and VFR as ceilings slowly lift. Northwest to north
winds of 6 to 12 knots gusting to 14 to 19 knots through about
10Z. Then north winds at 4 to 10 knots. SKC after 20Z. Winds 
become light and variable with a northeasterly preference after 
00Z Monday.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Columbus Day: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Haynes

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