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SKIVT-L  October 2020, Week 2

SKIVT-L October 2020, Week 2

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 12 Oct 2020 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (212 lines)

Expires:202010122000;;169395
FPUS51 KBTV 120705
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
302 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020


VTZ006-122000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
302 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020

.TODAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 50s. Southeast winds 10 to
15 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly clear with a slight chance of showers until
midnight, then mostly cloudy with a chance of rain after
midnight. Lows in the lower 40s. Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph
with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Rain. Highs around 50. Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph.
Gusts up to 35 mph in the morning. Chance of rain 90 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain.
Lows in the lower 40s. West winds around 10 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 60. Southwest winds
around 10 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny and breezy. Highs in the mid 60s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 40s. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the mid 50s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 30s. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of rain
showers. Highs around 50. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of rain showers.
Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 50. 

$$


Expires:202010121100;;178155
ASUS41 KBTV 121030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-121100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    33  28  81 CALM      30.29R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    28  28 100 CALM      30.36R                  
MORRISVILLE    MOCLDY    27  25  92 CALM      30.33S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     28  26  92 MISG      30.34R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      27  25  93 CALM      30.35R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      41  31  69 S7G17     30.29R                  
RUTLAND*       MOCLDY    43  33  68 SE14      30.29S                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    33  31  92 CALM      30.36R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      33  28  83 CALM      30.28S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      27  25  93 S6        30.34S WCI  20          
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    48  36  63 E10       30.26S                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     21 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     25 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     28 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A    N/A N/A N/A NE26        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     41  32  70 SE9         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     43  41  93 SE12        N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     37  36  93 SE6         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;171431
FXUS61 KBTV 120757
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
357 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A warming trend will be observed through Thursday. Beneficial,
soaking rains are expected overnight tonight into Tuesday. 
Cooler temperatures follow the front for the second half of next
week but the weather will remain unsettled with multiple 
chances for showers in the coming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 326 AM EDT Monday...Pleasant weather expected today. Deep layer
ridging and increasingly southeasterly flow should provide a nice
warm up with highs in the 50s to near 60. Skies mostly clear, with
cirrus clouds initially, then some lower stratus increasing 
during the evening. We'll see precipitation start to creep in 
past midnight. Overnight lows should only fall into the 40s with
increasing clouds and south winds, but fall a bit more into the
mid 30s across the Northeast Kingdom.

Needed, soaking rains expected on Tuesday. Overnight tonight, 
deep layer ridging shifts east. Deformation in the flow finally 
allows remnant moisture from former Hurricane Delta to lift into
the North Country. Favorable upper jet dynamics from an approaching
negatively tilted trough will allow precipitation to filter in 
during the pre-dawn hours. The initial moisture is fairly
shallow, it could start as more of a drizzle or light sprinkles
until more deep-layer moisture arrives. This comes as a cold 
front approaches Tuesday morning, and interacts favorably with 
ongoing isentropic upglide within mid-level southeasterly flow 
across coastal New England. We retain a good jet configuration 
as a zonal jet sets up across the Great Lakes and creates a 
semi-coupled structure with the more north-south jet streak 
ahead of the base of the advancing upper trough. This should 
allow rain to really blossom late Tuesday morning into the 
early afternoon hours, especially as 700-500hPa SEPV increases 
at this time. Thus, some elevated convective enhancement should 
make rain moderate to locally heavy late Tuesday morning into 
the afternoon with the best chances across eastern Vermont. By 
Tuesday evening (5 PM), back edge of the front will reach 
Vermont, but will likely not clear the state until Tuesday 
night. Precipitation amounts have been increased due to the 
favorable synoptic scale dynamics. Rainfall totals generally 
between 0.50" and 0.75" across Northern New York, and about 
0.60"-1.00" across Vermont. Portions of eastern Vermont could 
see locally higher amounts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 356 AM EDT Monday...Precipitation comes to an end Tuesday night
as upper level trough moves east out of the area. Weak ridging moves
in and brings with it light south to southwesterly flow and with
that seasonably warm temperatures. Look for highs on Wednesday to be
in the upper 50s to mid 60s. .

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 356 AM EDT Monday...As mentioned in previous discussions,
unsettled weather remains the name of the game for the long term.
Large scale trough over the eastern half the US will dominate the
weather for the back half of the week and through the weekend.
Thursday looks to see significant shortwave and associated surface
low track out of the Great Lakes region and to the north of the CWA.
The pressure gradient looks to increase with southerly winds 25-30
kt across Lake Champlain and 15- 20 kt elsewhere Thursday afternoon
and evening. The effect of the large scale trough will continue to
loom as chances for embedded shortwaves and associated showers will
be possible throughout the weekend. Overnight snowflakes in the
higher elevations is also a good possibility as well.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...VFR conditions expected for the next 24
hours. Outside of cirrus at or above 25000ft agl, skies clear.
Variable, terrain driven flow will become southeasterly at most
sites. Wind speeds increase to 5 to 12 knots with a few gusts 
up to 18 knots beyond 12Z. Ceilings will begin to fall towards
3500-5000ft agl as system approaches from the west towards 00Z
Tuesday. A few showers could approach KMSS around 03Z, while
remaining sites should stay dry the next 24 hours.

Outlook...

Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Verasamy
LONG TERM...Verasamy
AVIATION...Haynes

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
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May 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 5
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November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
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January 2007, Week 3
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January 2007, Week 1
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March 2005, Week 4
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February 2002, Week 1
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