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SKIVT-L  October 2020, Week 3

SKIVT-L October 2020, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sat, 17 Oct 2020 06:50:04 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (264 lines)

Expires:202010172000;;420181
FPUS51 KBTV 170653
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
251 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2020


VTZ006-172000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
251 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2020

.TODAY...Mostly cloudy with rain likely this morning, then mostly
sunny this afternoon. Highs in the upper 40s. Northwest winds
10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Clear. Patchy dense fog after midnight. Lows in the
lower 30s. West winds around 10 mph, becoming south after
midnight. 
.SUNDAY...Patchy dense fog in the morning. Partly sunny. Highs in
the upper 50s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. South winds
10 to 15 mph. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the lower 50s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows
in the mid 40s. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the mid 50s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 30s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of rain. Highs
in the upper 50s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
rain. Lows in the lower 40s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of rain. Highs
in the upper 50s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Breezy with highs in the lower 60s. 

$$


Expires:202010171100;;429830
ASUS41 KBTV 171031
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-171100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    45  40  82 N8        30.18R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    36  35  96 CALM      30.19S                  
MORRISVILLE    LGT RAIN  41  38  89 N5        30.18R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     35  34  96 MISG      30.15F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   LGT SNOW  33  32  97 CALM      30.18S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    42  40  91 N7        30.15F                  
RUTLAND*       LGT RAIN  41  41 100 VRB3      30.15S                  
SPRINGFIELD    LGT RAIN  38  35  89 NE7       30.15S                  
HIGHGATE*      MOCLDY    44  41  90 CALM      30.19F                  
NEWPORT*       RAIN      39  36  87 NE3       30.17S                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    42  38  85 NW3       30.13S                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     32 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     37 N/A N/A NE1         N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     34 N/A N/A NW16G29     N/A  WCI  23          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     46  41  81 NW8         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     48  37  66 N18         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     46  37  71 NW14        N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;421219
FXUS61 KBTV 170720
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
320 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Rainfall will finally come to an end this morning with clearing 
skies allowing for a very nice fall day across the North Country 
today. Gusty winds are expected to materialize on Sunday from the 
south/southwest with many places seeing wind gusts of 15 to 30 mph. 
Warmer air will accompany these stronger winds as we will see 
temperatures warm into the mid 50s to lower 60s. It still looks like 
we will remain in a very unsettled pattern through next week with a 
series of cold fronts expected to push across the region. However, 
it looks we should be mild through next week with temperatures 
hovering around 5-7 degrees above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 319 AM EDT Saturday...A nice band of precipitation has set up
along an area of increased surface convergence as the frontal wave
continues to track just inside of benchmark this morning. The area
of frontogenetic forcing has retrograded slightly westward as the
trough aloft continues to take on a sharper negative tilt. This has
resulted in some moderate rainfall spreading into eastern Vermont
and based on the latest radar images this should easily persist
through sunrise. The latest MRMS and surface observations show an
area of 1.00 to 1.35 inches of rain across far eastern Vermont and
we could still see another half of an inch of rainfall before rain
ends shortly after sunrise. It's nice having a series of
observations at different elevations across the Adirondack and Green
Mountains as it has allowed us to track the colder air moving into
the North Country. Late yesterday evening, we were already getting
reports of snow at around 3500 ft in the Green Mountains and
temperatures then were around 36-37 degrees. The latest observations
show temperatures between 3500 and 4000 feet have dropped to 33 to
34 degrees. Any precipitation falling across these higher peaks will
likely drop some light snowfall. However, the heaviest rain appears
to be falling east of the Green Mountains at the moment which will
likely continue to limit any snow accumulations at the higher
summits to just several inches of sloppy wet snow. Speaking about
snow, it's growing increasingly likely we could see a dusting at
elevations as low as 1000 ft across Essex County in Vermont by the
morning hours but road temperatures well above freezing will likely
limit accumulations to grassy and/or elevated surfaces.

Precipitation will quickly come to an end this morning as the upper
level trough axis swings through and a plethora of dry air moves
into the North Country. Clearing skies will quickly develop across
northern New York this morning and spread into eastern Vermont by
mid-afternoon. Highs today will be a few degrees below normal but
abundant sunshine should help make up for some of the cooler
temperatures. We will begin to see winds strengthen this evening
from the southwest as the aforementioned high pressure system slides
east and a cold front approaches from the west. This should keep fog
at bay for most locations tonight even with the recent rainfall.
However, we are still expecting to see some fog set up east of the
Green Mountains as they should be sheltered from the winds tonight.
Noticeably warmer temperatures will be seen on Sunday as we start to
see some strong warm air advection. Winds will become increasingly
gusty on Sunday with many places see gusts between 15 and 30 mph.
Stronger winds will be possible across the higher peaks and over
Lake Champlain so anyone with recreation plans on Sunday are urged
to plan accordingly.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 319 AM EDT Saturday...Cold front will cross the region during
the short term portion of the forecast Sunday night into Monday. As
the cold front approaches our area Sunday night, main impact will be
increase in clouds with showers mostly staying out of our area until
early Monday morning. Temperatures will be pretty mild Sunday night,
only getting down into the upper 40s for the St Lawrence and
Champlain valleys where the winds will stay up as well as the clouds
moving in. The coldest area will be eastern Vermont where it takes
the longest for the clouds to reach that area, lows will be in the
mid 30s. Toward Monday morning we'll have light rain showers
reaching our St Lawrence valley and Northern Adirondack zones and
have likely pops for right around sunrise. This front will be pretty
slow to cross our area, and best forcing will be further north with
low actually tracking into Northern Canada. Still have mention of
likely showers though think that it could be more scattered in
nature and QPF totals will be pretty light, under half an inch. High
temperatures on Monday will range through the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 319 AM EDT Saturday...Aforementioned front which pushed into
our area on Monday will remain sort of stationary across our area,
and another low will track along this boundary for the Monday night
into Tuesday timeframe. Some model disagreement on timing of this
low, but we'll see more clouds and moisture as low tracks roughly
through the St Lawrence valley. We could potentially see a short
period of time with some moderate rain, but timing is difficult to
say this far out. Right now looks like Northern New York zones will
have the highest totals with this feature and sometime during the
daytime hours on Tuesday. After this front finally pushes out of our
area, a weak high pressure system passes by to our north and we'll
briefly have drier weather with northerly flow, mainly just Tuesday
night. Another low pressure system passes from the Great Lakes
region northeastward, staying to our north and west, but with
frontal system passing through our area. This system could
potentially be more robust, perhaps even some convection, though
again not a lot of model agreement. This system will have more
moisture availability though with connection to gulf moisture.
Should have quick punch of stratiform rain moving across our entire
forecast area as this quick hitting low moves off to our north on
Wednesday. Then we'll have just a brief break in the action and yet
another system bringing more precipitation to the North Country on
Friday. This also looks like a pretty strong frontal passage for
later in October across our forecast area, though it's pretty far
out in the forecast at this time. ECMWF has a slightly more
favorable track with the low passing just north of our area. Gusty
south winds are anticipated ahead of the front, then northwest
behind it. Timing of cold front will likely determine potential for
any thunder with this front. Current indications are that the front
would be pushing through during the first part of Friday night. High
pressure should build in behind this frontal passage and a cooler
dryer weather weekend is expected.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Continued light to moderate rainfall is
expected to impact KRUT and KMPV through about 12Z before
finally exiting to the east. Ceilings and visibilities are 
expected to remain MVFR through this period but brief IFR 
conditions will be possible (as seen this evening) with any 
heavier showers embedded within the light rain. The fog 
formation seen across northern New York has eroded as mid to 
high level clouds have streamed back over the region and will 
likely prevent any additional radiational cooling. SKC 
conditions will spread from west to east late morning through 
early this afternoon with high pressure settling into the 
region. Light northerly winds will back to the west/southwest 
this afternoon and evening.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance RA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Clay

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June 2010, Week 4
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June 2010, Week 2
June 2010, Week 1
May 2010, Week 5
May 2010, Week 4
May 2010, Week 3
May 2010, Week 2
May 2010, Week 1
April 2010, Week 5
April 2010, Week 4
April 2010, Week 3
April 2010, Week 2
April 2010, Week 1
March 2010, Week 5
March 2010, Week 4
March 2010, Week 3
March 2010, Week 2
March 2010, Week 1
February 2010, Week 4
February 2010, Week 3
February 2010, Week 2
February 2010, Week 1
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January 2010, Week 4
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January 2010, Week 1
December 2009, Week 5
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September 2009, Week 3
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September 2009, Week 1
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July 2009, Week 3
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June 2009, Week 3
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June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
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April 2009, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 3
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March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
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March 2008, Week 1
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