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SKIVT-L  October 2020, Week 3

SKIVT-L October 2020, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Thu, 15 Oct 2020 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (249 lines)

Expires:202010152000;;328106
FPUS51 KBTV 151047
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
645 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020


VTZ006-152000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
645 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020

.TODAY...Partly sunny and breezy, warmer with highs in the lower
70s. South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the mid 40s. Southwest winds
15 to 20 mph, becoming west around 10 mph after midnight. Chance
of rain 70 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Showers likely in the morning, then rain likely in the
afternoon. Highs in the lower 50s. Light and variable winds.
Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Rain. Rain may be heavy at times. Lows in the
upper 30s. Northwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain
90 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Rain likely. Rain may be heavy at times. Highs in the
upper 40s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the mid 30s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. 
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid 50s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 50s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. 

$$


Expires:202010151100;;327440
ASUS41 KBTV 151031
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-151100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    52  36  54 S8        29.88F                  
MONTPELIER     CLEAR     38  37  97 CALM      29.99F                  
MORRISVILLE    CLEAR     39  37  92 CALM      29.94F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     36  34  92 MISG      29.98F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      35  34  95 N3        29.99S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      45  39  81 CALM      29.92S                  
RUTLAND*       CLEAR     50  40  68 SE7       29.95F                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLEAR     41  40  96 CALM      30.02S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      43  34  70 S5        29.95F                  
BENNINGTON     PTCLDY    54  38  54 CALM      29.95F                  
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     45 N/A N/A W1          N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     50 N/A N/A S17G32      N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     55  41  58 SE21G29     N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     54  45  71 S29         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     52  43  71 S17         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;319833
FXUS61 KBTV 150735
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
335 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm and windy day is on tap across the North Country today as a 
warm front lifts through the region. Wind gusts in the 30 to 40 mph 
range will be common with some locations across northern New York 
and the Champlain Islands gusting up to 50 mph. Winds will abate 
this evening with shower activity expected to develop ahead of an 
approaching cold front. This shower activity will continue into 
Friday before steadier rain develops across Vermont Friday afternoon 
through Saturday morning. Precipitation will end quickly Saturday 
afternoon with quieter and drier weather expected through the second 
half of the weekend. We will remain in an unsettled weather pattern 
next week with temperatures trending several degrees above seasonal 
normals.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 332 AM EDT Thursday...The surface high pressure system that
brought a very nice fall day to the North Country on Wednesday has
shifted offshore. Currently, a surface low continues to mature north
of the Great Lakes with a surface cold front currently situated
across the Ohio River Valley. The combination of the departing high
and approach cold front has allowed for an increasingly strong
southwest to northeast oriented pressure gradient to develop across
the region. We will see a 50 knot 850 mb jet move into northern New
York around 12Z and spread eastward into Vermont during the late
morning/early afternoon hours in response to the strengthening
pressure gradient. Winds are expected to channel up the St. Lawrence
and Champlain Valleys throughout the day which will lead to 30-40
mph gusts mid-morning through the mid-afternoon hours with wind
gusts up to 50 mph possible across the northern slopes of the
Adirondacks and the Champlain Islands. Confidence has decreased
slightly in the strength of the winds across the aforementioned
locations as temperatures dropped quite a bit below what was
initially anticipated. This will likely lead to a strong surface
based inversion as the nose of the low level jet mixes down. The
strong stability in the low levels will limit the amount of mixing
until about 14Z when the inversion breaks but the core of stronger
winds will have already begun to shift eastward by this point. Winds
will begin to abate around 5 PM with winds dropping to 10-15 mph by
8 PM.

Temperatures today will be on the "toasty" side as we warm into the
upper 60s to mid 70s (around 15 degrees above normal) as a warm
front lifts through the region this morning. We should see some
breaks in the clouds throughout the day with a few locations across
southern Vermont possibly approaching the upper 70s. We will remain
dry through much of the day with shower activity expected to develop
this evening across northern New York ahead of the advancing cold
front. This shower activity will move into Vermont during the late
evening hours as the cold front continues it's steady advancement
eastward. Scattered showers are expected to continue through the day
on Friday as good moisture advection coupled with increasing post-
frontal lapse rates is observed. Steadier rainfall is expected to
move into the region Friday afternoon as an area of low pressure
develops along the frontal boundary over the Carolinas and moves up
the east coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 332 AM EDT Thursday...Rain, heavy at times will continue in the
Friday night into Saturday morning timeframe as a surface low lifts
along the New England coast from south to north along stalled out
frontal boundary. Models have trended a bit further East with the
low, therefore axis of heaviest precipitation has also slid further
East, likely to be somewhere across eastern New England. Heaviest
rain still looks like it will be late Friday night into early
Saturday morning. Rainfall totals from Friday afternoon through the
day Saturday will range from only a few hundredths in the St
Lawrence valley to an inch and a half in the Northeast Kingdom of
Vermont. No large scale flooding is anticipated at this time. Much
colder air mass moves into our area on Saturday, and ongoing rain
will turn to snow in the highest elevations of Vermont and Northern
New York. Locations between 1500 to 2500 feet may receive a
rain/snow mix Saturday, with locations above 2500 feet receiving
snow. Overall, snowfall accumulations of a few inches are possible
across the High Peaks of the Adirondacks and the summits of the
Green Mountains. Elsewhere, temperatures will be in 40s to around 50
for Saturday, with cooler temperatures across eastern Vermont due to
the ongoing precipitation. Precipitation is expected to taper off
Saturday afternoon and evening as the surface low departs to the
northeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 332 AM EDT Thursday...High pressure will begin to ridge into
our area on Saturday night, shutting down all remaining
precipitation. Thereafter, an approaching frontal system will bring
ongoing chances for rain showers for Sunday night into Monday. High
temperatures will be in the 50s with overnight lows in the 30s and
40s. Though temperatures will be somewhat mild, the weather pattern
looks active next week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...Light and variable winds prevail across the
North Country this morning but that'll change around 12Z as
channeled south to southwest flow begins to work into the
Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys. Wind gusts in the 25 to 35
knot range will be seen at all terminals by mid-morning with the
strongest winds likely at KBTV and KMSS with the channeled flow.
These winds will abate slowly throughout the day with winds
dropping below 10 knots after 00Z. Low level wind shear will be
seen through the 12Z to 16Z window as the nose of the low level
jet moves overhead. Ceilings will stay VFR through much of the
TAF period with MVFR ceilings not expected until after 00Z. We
could see a few rain showers through the evening hours but they
should remain light enough to not significantly impact
visibilities.

Outlook...

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite RA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance RA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds will funnel up the Champlain Valley throughout
the day today with winds increasing to 30 to 40 knots by late
this morning. We will see wave heights increase throughout the
morning hours with waves reaching 4 to 7 ft by early this
afternoon with the highest waves across northern Lake Champlain.
Winds will abate gradually through the late afternoon hours
before diminishing to 10-15 knots this evening. Wave heights 
will slowly diminish to 2 to 4 ft during the overnight hours as 
winds continue to weaken.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ001.
NY...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ026>028-030-
     031-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Clay
MARINE...Clay

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October 2009, Week 3
October 2009, Week 2
October 2009, Week 1
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September 2009, Week 3
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September 2009, Week 1
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August 2009, Week 1
July 2009, Week 5
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July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
June 2009, Week 4
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June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
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May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
April 2009, Week 4
April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
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March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
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February 2009, Week 2
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September 2008, Week 3
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June 2008, Week 5
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June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
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May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
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February 2008, Week 3
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February 2008, Week 1
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October 2007, Week 5
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October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
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September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
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August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
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August 2007, Week 1
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July 2007, Week 3
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July 2007, Week 1
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June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
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May 2007, Week 1
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March 2005, Week 4
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March 2005, Week 1
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