Expires:202010182000;;472089
FPUS51 KBTV 180659
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
256 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020


VTZ006-182000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
256 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020

.TODAY...Sunny this morning, then becoming partly sunny. Highs in
the mid 50s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy until midnight, then becoming partly
cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. South winds 15 to 20 mph with
gusts up to 30 mph. 
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers in the morning, then
showers likely in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 50s. South
winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the upper 40s. South
winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the mid 50s. Southwest winds
10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows around 40. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Breezy with highs in the lower 60s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Breezy with lows in the lower 40s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s. 

$$


Expires:202010181100;;481426
ASUS41 KBTV 181031
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-181100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLEAR     44  31  60 S8        30.43R                  
MONTPELIER     CLEAR     27  27 100 CALM      30.49R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLEAR     28  26  92 CALM      30.46R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     29  28  96 MISG      30.48R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FOG       27  26  98 CALM      30.49R VSB 1/2          
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      32  31  94 CALM      30.44S                  
RUTLAND*       CLEAR     34  31  88 SE14      30.46S WCI  25          
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       28  27  96 CALM      30.51R VSB 1            
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      44  31  59 S6        30.41R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      36  30  80 S6        30.45R WCI  31          
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     31  28  89 CALM      30.45R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     25 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     27 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     28 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     37 N/A N/A NW20G32     N/A  WCI  27          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     48  37  66 SE20G26     N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     46  39  76 S21         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     43  34  70 S9          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;473870
FXUS61 KBTV 180742
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
342 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and breezy weather with periods of showers, especially 
Monday through Wednesday, is expected through much of the 
upcoming week. A frontal boundary will waver through mainly 
northern parts of the area, with southerly winds ushering in 
warm air. Temperatures will be mainly in the 50s and 60s during 
the day and 30s and 40s at night, with warmer conditions favored
late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 340 AM EDT Sunday...Mainly quiet weather is anticipated 
for today as surface high pressure lifts northeast of the 
region. A cold front approaches from the west and increase in 
clouds is expected this afternoon especially in Northern New 
York. Fog that has formed in eastern Vermont this morning will 
lift by about 9 am or so. Maximum temperatures will reach the 
mid 50s to lower 60s with southerly flow in place. Winds will 
gust on Lake Champlain to about 35 mph this afternoon. Across 
Northern New York winds will gust to about 25 mph. Southerly 
flow continues into the overnight hours ahead of approaching 
front which will finally reach the western edge of our CWA by 
early Monday morning. Will also have increasing clouds 
overnight, keeping temperatures pretty mild for the latter half 
of October. Min temps across Northern New York and into the 
Champlain valley will hover in the 40s, while some temperatures 
in the 30s are expected in areas East of the Greens which will 
be a bit more sheltered from the winds and may still have some 
lingering clear skies at the very start of the overnight period 
allowing temperatures to drop pretty quickly in that area before
rising during the second half of the overnight. During the 
daylight hours on Monday will have cold frontal passage take 
place from west to east across our area. Although not a very 
strong surface front, we will see some scattered light rain 
showers along and ahead of the front. Have likely pops mentioned
across most of the area. High temperatures on Monday will range
through the 50s, warmest in the Champlain valley. Rainfall 
totals will range from just a few hundredths in southeastern 
Vermont to about a quarter of an inch in the St Lawrence valley.
This surface front lacks any deep low and mid level moisture.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Sunday...A weak cold front is expected to 
stall across northern New York and northern Vermont Monday night
and will begin to lift north as a warm front throughout the day
on Tuesday. A decent push of isentropic ascent along the 
frontal boundary is expected to yield scattered to numerous rain
showers through the night on Monday into Tuesday morning before
the front lifts north of the International Border. An upper 
level disturbance is expected to track across Lake Ontario 
Tuesday late morning and afternoon which will bring another good
shot of rainfall to northern New York (mainly the St. Lawrence 
Valley). Better surface convergence and moisture feeding off the
lake should yield some better rainfall but rainfall totals will
remain well below a quarter of an inch. This disturbance will 
quickly track to the northeast throughout the afternoon hours 
with surface high pressure developing in the wake of the 
disturbance allowing for a break in precipitation Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Sunday...The period of active weather 
continues on Wednesday with another strong wind event expected 
across the region. The high pressure system from Tuesday night 
will quickly exit eastward Wednesday morning while pressure 
falls are expected across the Great Lakes region as a surface 
low quickly spins up. This low is expected to track to our north
and west, which has been the case with many lows this past 
month, and looks to bring another strong low level jet over the 
region. Depending on your model of choice, we could see a 925 mb
jet anywhere from 40-55 knots and an 850 mb jet of 50 to 65 
knots. The nose of this low level jet is expected to move over 
the north country during peak heating and models soundings look 
promising to see these stronger winds make it down to the 
surface as wind gusts of 30 to 45 mph. The strongest winds will 
likely occur across the St. Lawrence Valley, the northern slopes
of the Adirondacks and the northern Champlain Valley as the 
south/southwest winds channel up the valleys and downslope off 
the aforementioned higher terrain. We will once again be on the 
tail end of a cold front which could bring some rain to the far 
northern reaches of our forecast area but most places should 
remain dry. If you are a fan of warmer weather and not the snow 
seen on Saturday that Saturday is the day for you as we will see
temperatures in the lower to upper 60s.

Thursday looks to be the "quietest" day of the week as the 
gradient winds from Wednesday will abate Wednesday night with 
high pressure nosing into the region. Slightly cooler 
temperatures are expected on Thursday as we will see 850 mb 
temperatures 2-4 degrees C colder than Wednesday. Nevertheless, 
it's looking like another day of above normal temperatures for 
Thursday. Friday is shaping up to be a near repeat of Wednesday 
where we will once again see gusty winds materialize over the 
region. Winds don't appear to be as strong as Wednesday as the 
system will be displaced even further north by 20- 30 mph south 
to southwest winds are not out of the question. Given the system
being further north, we should remain dry and well into the 
warm sector which will allow temperatures to climb into the mid 
60s to lower 70s. A cold front with increasing rain chances will
move through the region on Saturday and bring back the return 
of near normal temperatures for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...VFR conditions will prevail through the 
period. Mid/high clouds begin to increase early this morning, 
mainly over the St Lawrence Valley, and these will slowly spread
eastward through the day. Light/calm winds overnight will turn 
to the south after 12z today and pick up to around 10 kt with 
gusts to 20 kt after 14z. Have added in TEMPO group for MPV for 
some fog formation between 08-12z. 

Outlook...

Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: MVFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Wednesday: MVFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A lake wind advisory is in effect for today as strong southerly
flow increases through the day ahead of an approaching cold
front. Winds will gust to about 35 mph on Lake Champlain this
afternoon out of the South. 

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...Neiles
MARINE...Neiles

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