Expires:202010192000;;524181
FPUS51 KBTV 190712
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
310 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2020


VTZ006-192000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
310 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2020

.TODAY...Partly sunny with a slight chance of showers this
morning, then cloudy with showers this afternoon. Highs in the
upper 50s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Showers. Lows in the upper 40s. South winds 10 to
15 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph after midnight. Chance of rain
80 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Showers. Highs in the mid 50s. Southwest winds 15 to
20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph, becoming northwest around 10 mph
in the afternoon. Chance of rain 90 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 40s. Northeast winds around 10 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the lower 60s. South winds
15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 40s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. 
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the upper 50s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain
showers. Lows in the mid 30s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 40s. 

$$


Expires:202010190900;;526461
ASUS41 KBTV 190811
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-190900-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    55  41  59 S22G36    30.26R                  
MONTPELIER     CLEAR     43  38  82 S3        30.35R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLEAR     44  38  79 S8        30.29F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     47  39  74 MISG      30.32S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   MOCLDY    45  38  78 SE9       30.34S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    52  41  65 S8        30.31S                  
RUTLAND*       MOCLDY    48  41  76 SE10      30.33R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLEAR     39  37  92 CALM      30.37S                  
HIGHGATE*      MOCLDY    55  39  53 S10G24    30.24R                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    46  39  76 S9G18     30.30S                  
BENNINGTON     PTCLDY    50  41  71 E8        30.32F                  
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     45 N/A N/A SW5         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     55  45  67 S26G37      N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     55  45  67 S35G40      N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     54  43  66 SE23        N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;525241
FXUS61 KBTV 190751
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
351 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather is expected through the majority of the work 
week as southwesterly upper level flow is conducive for several 
storm systems crossing our area. A cold front will begin to 
cross our area today, but be very slow or stationary, finally 
moving east of the area late Tuesday. The front will then lift 
to our north providing warmer and windy conditions for 
Wednesday, waver south on Thursday and then back to our north 
late in the week. This pattern will put the storm track well to 
our north promoting unseasonably warm weather on Friday and 
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Monday...A surface cold front pushes into our 
area from the west today and becomes focus for active weather 
through Tuesday. Cold front will move into our area then stall, 
not moving off to our east until later in the day Tuesday. As 
the front remains draped across our area, waves of low pressure 
lift north along the front bringing several bouts of rain 
showers to the North country. First wave of moisture lifts north
along the front today, and we'll have scattered showers, 
especially in our Northern New York zones. Winds will calm down 
a bit as the rain starts up, the boundary layer stabilizes, and 
core of low level jet moves north of our region. Rainfall totals
will range from about half an inch in the St Lawrence valley, 
to about two tenths of an inch in the northern Champlain valley,
down to zero in the southeastern Vermont area. Widespread 
overcast conditions are anticipated today, so temperatures are 
only expected to reach the mid to upper 50s, warmest across 
southern Vermont. Showers will let up a bit overnight, though 
plenty of clouds remain in place. Another 850 mb jet around 
40-50 kts moves over the area between about 06-15z Tuesday. 
We'll once again see gusty winds during that timeframe, gusting 
to about 30 kts over Lake Champlain especially. Temperatures 
will remain mild overnight tonight with clouds and gusty winds, 
mainly dropping into the lower 40s to lower 50s. Tuesday will 
once again feature rain showers as a low pressure area lifts 
north along the surface front, and front will also finally push 
east of our region. Focus for rainfall on Tuesday will be across
Vermont with around a tenth to three tenths of an inch of rain 
expected. High temperatures on Tuesday will range from around 50
in the St Lawrence valley behind the cold front, to the lower 
60s in Southern Vermont before the cold front reaches that area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 AM EDT Monday...A cold front will become stationary 
across southern Vermont Tuesday evening and will begin to lift 
north as a warm front early Wednesday morning as the upper level
trough to our west begins to amplify. This will bring a surge 
of warm air advection into the region after midnight Tuesday 
night which will create a non-diurnal temperature curve as 
temperatures are expected to warm during the second half of the 
overnight period. In addition to temperatures warming overnight,
we will begin to see a southwest gradient wind begin to 
strengthen over the region. The latest NAM/GFS/CMC data suggests
a 55 to 65 knot low level jet pushing across northwest and 
western parts of the forecast area between 15Z and 21Z on 
Wednesday which could bring some gusty winds between 25 and 40 
mph to the region during the daylight hours. There is, however, 
a lot of uncertainty to how deep we mix on Wednesday as there 
will be a very strong surface based inversion that will take 
quite some time to overcome. Although our 925 mb winds could be 
in the 40 to 50 knot range, the latest NAM and GFS guidance 
suggests we only mix to 950 mb. This would likely prevent us 
from mixing down the core of stronger winds off the surface and 
thus keeping winds below advisory level. We could see some 
pretty nice wave clouds and rotors along the higher terrain 
which would lead to some impressive turbulence if you are flying
around the region. Rain showers will develop ahead of a cold 
front approaching from the west Wednesday afternoon across 
northern New York but will be rather lackluster with much of the
forcing passing well north of the International Border. Winds 
will begin abate quickly Wednesday evening as the pressure 
gradient slackens and the low level jet exits off the the east.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Monday...Thursday is shaping up to be slightly
cooler than Wednesday as a weak cold front slides through the 
region during the pre-dawn hours. However, the front will once 
again lift north as a warm front as we head into Thursday night 
and Friday with highs on Friday warming into the mid 60s to low 
70s. The upper level flow continues to be highly amplified with 
a trough over the central US allowing for deep layer ridging to 
situate over the region on Friday. As is typically the case this
time of the year, well above normal temperatures are typically 
accompanied by gusty winds and Friday will be no different. 
While it won't be as windy as Wednesday, southerly gusts of 
20-30 mph will likely be seen with the focus of the strong gusts
across the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys. Don't get too 
used to the warmer weather as a cold front is slated to enter 
the St. Lawrence Valley Saturday morning and track across the 
region throughout the day on Saturday. Temperatures are expected
to plummet quickly behind the front with global models showing 
850 temperatures dropping between 0 and -6 degrees C over the 
region. No snow is expected this time as the cold air won't move
in until well after the precipitation exits off to the east. 
Much cooler temperatures are expected on Sunday as highs will 
likely only warm into the 40s region wide but we will begin to 
see temperatures moderate back to normal values on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Mix of MVFR/VFR conditions through the 
period with main concern tonight for areas of low level wind 
shear. A low-level jet will develop ahead of a cold front with 
low-level wind shear at all sites, except BTV, MPV and MSS, 
generally after 02z (closer to 06z for VT terminals) and weaken 
by 12z. VFR ceilings will trend MVFR after 12-18z as showers 
approach the area. MVFR visibility reductions are possible at 
all terminals during this time period. Winds through the TAF 
periods will be generally out of the south between 5-10 kt.

Outlook...

Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A lake wind advisory remains in effect for tonight as strong 
southerly flow continues ahead of an approaching cold front. 
Winds will gust to about 30 mph on Lake Champlain tonight out 
of the South.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...Neiles
MARINE...Neiles/Kutikoff

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