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SKIVT-L  October 2020, Week 4

SKIVT-L October 2020, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Wed, 28 Oct 2020 06:50:03 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (232 lines)

Expires:202010282000;;955127
FPUS51 KBTV 280729
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
327 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020


VTZ006-282000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
327 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020

.TODAY...Cloudy. Isolated snow showers this morning, then
isolated rain showers this afternoon. Highs in the mid 40s. South
winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 20 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. West winds 10 to
15 mph. 
.THURSDAY...Cloudy. A slight chance of light rain in the
afternoon. Highs in the lower 40s. Northwest winds around 10 mph
in the morning, becoming light and variable. Chance of rain
20 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow.
Little or no snow accumulation. Lows in the mid 20s. Northeast
winds around 10 mph. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. North winds
around 10 mph. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 20. 
.SATURDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 40s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain showers.
Highs around 50. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow
showers. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation
50 percent. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the mid 30s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. 

$$


Expires:202010280900;;958000
ASUS41 KBTV 280830
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-280900-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     NOT AVBL                                               
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    32  31  96 CALM      30.14F                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    32  30  92 CALM      30.12F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     33  29  85 MISG      30.12F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    30  28  91 CALM      30.12F                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    34  33  96 CALM      30.11F                  
RUTLAND*       MIX PCPN  36  36 100 CALM      30.11F                  
SPRINGFIELD    LGT RAIN  37  36  96 CALM      30.13F                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    33  28  82 E5        30.11F WCI  29          
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    30  28  93 CALM      30.11F                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    42  40  92 CALM      30.10S                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     27 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     30 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     30 N/A N/A S2          N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     28 N/A N/A S13         N/A  WCI  18          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     39  30  70 E12         N/A  WCI  32          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     37  34  87 SE12        N/A  WCI  30          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     37  32  81 SE7         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;955672
FXUS61 KBTV 280748
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
348 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Other than a few passing light showers across southern counties
this morning, variably cloudy skies and mainly dry weather is 
expected today. A storm system passing south of the region will 
bring a period of light rains and snows to southern counties 
later Thursday into Friday morning. Behind this system, dry and 
colder weather arrives for Friday into Saturday before 
temperatures briefly moderate for Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 329 AM EDT Wednesday...Mainly a persistence forecast will
be offered over the next 42 hours with a light/innocuous sfc 
pressure gradient bridged aloft by robust zonal flow. A 
persistent synoptic scale inversion in the 850-700 mb level will
act to keep variably cloudy skies intact across the much of the
region through tonight under a mainly light wind regime. A weak
shortwave aloft passing across the Capital District of NY into 
far southern VT and NH will spark a few/scattered showers in 
those areas this morning, otherwise dry weather is expected. 
Temperatures a multi-model blend of solutions offering max 
readings in the 40s to locally near 50 today, then 30s to around
40 for lows overnight.

On Thursday low pressure (remnants of once Hurricane Zeta) lift 
quickly from the southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic region. 
Decent isentropic lift blossoming in mid to upper levels will push 
steady light rainfall into southern counties by later in the 
afternoon. Boundary layer thermal profiles initially warm enough 
such that most precipitation should fall as light rain, though 
higher elevations of the southern Greens above 2 kft will likely see 
a mix or changeover to wet snow toward early evening. Dry weather 
continues further north. Highs to top out in the 40s, though slowly 
fall from mid afternoon onward in southern counties due to wet-bulb 
cooling once precipitation arrives.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 348 AM EDT Wednesday...Precipitation will be ongoing Thursday 
night over southern portions of the forecast area as several 
low pressure systems converge over the Mid-Atlantic. Continues 
to appear that northern NY and VT will be on the northern 
periphery of the system, which will for the most part stay 
shunted to our south by strong Canadian high pressure centered 
to our northwest. The placement of the high will direct cold and
dry northerly flow in the low levels to our forecast area. This
will further limit impacts from the systems to our south as any
precipitation that spreads this far north will have quite the 
dry layer to overcome before reaching the surface. In addition, 
best frontogenetical forcing will remain along the baroclinic 
zone well to our south, which latest guidance puts somewhere in 
the vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic to the southern New England 
Coast. 

By Thursday night, any residual rain will quickly transition to 
light snow as cold air filters in from the north and temperatures 
drop to below freezing.  Snowfall amounts will range from a dusting 
up to an inch for northern Vermont, northern NY, and the Champlain 
and Connecticut Valleys, and from 1 to 4 inches over higher 
elevations of southern Vermont.  The highest summits of the southern 
Greens could see 4+ inches, but this would be extremely localized. 
Any lingering snow showers over southern VT will come to an end 
Friday morning giving way to a blustery and chilly day.  Despite 
increasing sun through the day, temperatures will only warm into the 
mid to upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 348 AM EDT Wednesday...High pressure building in Friday night 
through Saturday will keep the region dry to begin the weekend.
Lows Friday night will be very cold...teens for most of the 
area into the low to mid 20s for valley locations. Highs on 
Halloween (Saturday) will be in the low to mid 40s. As the 
center of the high shifts east Friday night, return southerly 
flow will increase and temperatures will begin to warm starting 
Saturday night. Southerly winds will increase area-wide during 
the day on Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens with a front
approaching from the west. Highest winds will be channeled up 
the Champlain Valley, where gusts 25 to 35 mph look reasonable. 
Elsewhere, gusts will be in the 15 to 25 mph range. A front will
move through late Sunday through Sunday night, bringing a quick
shot of rain that will transition to snow overnight. With gusty
southerly/southwesterly winds accompanying the system, thinking
the valleys should get downsloped a good bit and thus precip 
amounts will be very limited in lower elevations. After the 
front clears the area, next work week will trend drier but will 
remain chilly through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR expected through 15Z,
trending mainly VFR after 18Z. Highest confidence of IFR at
KSLK. KBTV mainly holding VFR through the forecast period with
cigs generally in the BKN/OVC 040-070 AGL range. Scattered 
light showers possible at KRUT in the 09-14Z time range, 
otherwise dry conditions expected at other terminals over the 
next 24 hours. Winds light and vrb through 12Z, trending 
south/southwesterly 5-10 kts thereafter.

Outlook...

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance RA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN,
Chance RA.
Friday: VFR. Chance RA, Chance SN.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Duell
LONG TERM...Duell
AVIATION...JMG

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October 2007, Week 5
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March 2007, Week 5
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January 2002, Week 5
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