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SKIVT-L  October 2020, Week 4

SKIVT-L October 2020, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Tue, 27 Oct 2020 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (238 lines)

Expires:202010272000;;902977
FPUS51 KBTV 270712
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
309 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020


VTZ006-272000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
309 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020

.TODAY...Cloudy. A chance of rain showers or a slight chance of
snow showers this morning. Little or no snow accumulation. Highs
in the upper 30s. Northwest winds around 10 mph this morning,
becoming light and variable. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. Light and
variable winds. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly
sunny. Highs in the mid 40s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. Southwest
winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain
showers. Highs in the mid 40s. West winds around 10 mph. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow or rain
showers. Lows in the mid 20s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of snow or rain showers.
Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 20. 
.SATURDAY...Sunny. Highs around 40. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 20s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny and breezy. Highs in the mid 40s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy and breezy. Lows in the upper 20s. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. 

$$


Expires:202010271100;;912155
ASUS41 KBTV 271031
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-271100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     NOT AVBL                                               
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    37  37 100 NW7       30.19R WCI  32          
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    37  35  92 N9        30.19S WCI  30          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     40  36  86 MISG      30.14R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    37  34  90 W9        30.15F WCI  30          
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    40  35  82 N5        30.18R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    41  41 100 NW5       30.16R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    44  40  85 VRB3      30.16R                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    38  35  89 NW5       30.22R                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    36  34  93 NW3       30.18S FOG              
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    46  41  82 NW9       30.15R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     36 N/A N/A NW6         N/A  WCI  31          
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     36 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     34 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     28 N/A N/A S9          N/A  WCI  20          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     41  36  81 NW10G16     N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     41  36  81 N18         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     43  39  87 N15         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;904087
FXUS61 KBTV 270741
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
341 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Variably cloudy skies and seasonably cool temperatures will 
continue today into Wednesday. Scattered light showers will be 
possible area wide through sunrise, and again by later today 
across southwestern counties. Low pressure passing south of the 
region later Thursday into Friday will likely bring light rains 
and a period of potential accumulating snows to central and 
southern counties, especially across elevated terrain. Drier 
weather returns by later Friday into next Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Tuesday...Surface front now pushing through 
southern counties early this morning. Scattered light 
showers/patchy drizzle continues along and immediately behind 
the boundary, so the idea of at least some persistent/scattered 
light activity still looks reasonable through sunrise or so. 
Higher terrain may see a light dusting of snow, mainly above 2 
kft. 

For today variably cloudy skies continue, with perhaps a few breaks 
here and there, especially in the Champlain/St Lawrence Valleys this 
afternoon. Additional vorticity filament and mid level moisture pool 
advects southeast later today/early this evening as base of H5 
trough approaches. Track of this feature should focus best coverage 
across southwestern counties where a 3-6 hour window of scattered 
rain/higher terrain snow showers will be possible. High temperatures 
to range from the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Lingering rain/snow shower activity ends this evening as partly to 
variably cloudy skies continue under light winds and weak high 
pressure. Light southwesterly return flow may spark a few light 
rain/snow showers across the southern SLV/Dacks to the lee of Lake 
Ontario after midnight. Lows from the upper 20s to mid 30s. Variable 
clouds trend partly sunny by Wednesday under weak high pressure and 
mainly dry conditions. Highs remain seasonably cool from the mid 40s 
to lower 50s as south/southwest return flow becomes established area 
wide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 338 AM EDT Tuesday...Forecast gets a little more complicated 
Thursday through Thursday night as several features come 
together over the Mid-Atlantic/northeastern US. First feature 
will be the remnants of Zeta tracking northeastward from the 
Gulf and offshore into the western Atlantic somewhere between 
the DelMarVa Peninsula and New Jersey. Additional shortwave 
energy will track into the area as a closed low over the Desert 
Southwest region of the southwestern US lifts northeastward and 
a northern stream shortwaves dips into the Great Lakes region. 
Meanwhile, strong high pressure over eastern Canada will keep 
the majority of the impacts of these systems shunted to our 
south, while filtering in colder air from the north over the 
North Country. Consequently, will see a tightening 
baroclinic/moisture boundary between the moist southern stream 
systems and drier high pressure to the north. Guidance continues
to indicate that this boundary will remain to our south, 
putting us on the northern periphery of Thursday's precipitation
that will affect portions of the East Coast. Still some 
discrepancies as to how far north precipitation will extend, 
but haven't made any large changes in Thursday's forecast and 
thus we stick to a middle ground forecast given the large spread
in ensemble solutions. 

Precipitation will start as rain Thursday afternoon/evening, then 
transition to snow through the night as temperatures drop.  Again, 
have strayed towards a middle-ground QPF/snowfall forecast, and 
given large spread in model solutions these numbers may change quite 
a bit over the coming days.  However, current QPF forecast ranges 
from just a few hundredths of precip near the the International 
Border, to around a half inch of precip over higher elevations of 
Rutland and Windsor Counties in Vermont.  Total precip amounts will 
decrease the further north you go.  Still early to go into too many 
details on a total snow forecast, but initial estimates are around 1-
4 inches in higher elevations of southern/central VT and the 
northern Adirondacks, and just a dusting to an inch elsewhere. 

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 338 AM EDT Tuesday...Any lingering precipitation should be 
winding down Friday morning, leaving behind a chilly and 
blustery day with highs only in the 30s. High pressure will 
build in Friday night through Saturday night, supplying another 
set of chilly nights. Halloween is looking dry but chilly with 
highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Temperatures will warm Sunday
as the center of the high shifts to our east, with highs 
expected to top out in the 40s to around 50. Sunday will also be
quite gusty with southwesterly winds strengthening in response 
to a tightening pressure gradient behind the high. The next 
frontal system to impact the area will move through late Sunday 
into Monday, as a low pressure center tracking through 
central/northern Quebec drags a front through the northeastern 
US. Overall limited moisture with the system, but we will see a 
few rain showers that will eventually transition to some snow 
showers as temperatures drop overnight. Noting a fairly strong 
thermal gradient along/behind the front, thus temperatures will 
again drop going into early next work week. 

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR cigs continue 
through 12Z, gradually lifting to a mix of VFR/MVFR through 18Z,
then VFR at all terminals by 00Z Wed. Scattered light showers 
with brief MVFR visibility restrictions possible through 10Z at
selected terminals. Additional scattered light shower activity
possible at KSLK/KRUT in the 20-02Z time frame. Winds generally
light north to northwesterly 4-8 kts through 20Z, trending light
and variable thereafter.

Outlook...

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance RA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN,
Slight chance RA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SN.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Duell
LONG TERM...Duell
AVIATION...JMG

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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July 2009, Week 1
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May 2009, Week 5
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May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
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April 2009, Week 1
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March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
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February 2009, Week 1
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July 2008, Week 1
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April 2008, Week 5
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March 2008, Week 1
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January 2008, Week 3
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October 2007, Week 1
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May 2007, Week 1
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