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SKIVT-L  November 2020, Week 2

SKIVT-L November 2020, Week 2

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Thu, 12 Nov 2020 06:50:04 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (244 lines)

Expires:202011122100;;716167
FPUS51 KBTV 121120
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
618 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020


VTZ006-122100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
618 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

.TODAY...Mostly cloudy this morning, then becoming partly sunny.
Highs in the upper 40s. Northwest winds around 10 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy until midnight, then clearing. Lows in
the upper 20s. Light and variable winds, becoming east around
10 mph after midnight. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. A slight chance of rain showers in the
afternoon. Highs in the mid 40s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance
of rain 20 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. West winds
around 10 mph. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s. West winds
10 to 15 mph. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. 
.SUNDAY...Rain likely or a chance of snow. Little or no snow
accumulation. Highs in the mid 40s. Chance of precipitation
70 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Rain likely. Lows in the upper 30s. Chance of
rain 70 percent. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of rain showers.
Breezy with highs in the mid 40s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy and breezy. Lows in the upper 20s. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid 30s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 20. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 20s. 

$$


Expires:202011121200;;716788
ASUS41 KBTV 121131
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST THU NOV 12 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-121200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    45  32  60 N12       30.05R                  
MONTPELIER     MOCLDY    44  35  70 NW6       30.04R                  
MORRISVILLE    PTCLDY    43  34  70 N8        30.03R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     47  36  65 MISG      29.99R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      41  34  74 NW5       30.02R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      45  35  66 N7G16     30.02R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    53  42  66 N6        29.97S                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    57  43  59 W6        29.95R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      42  32  66 CALM      30.06R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      41  32  70 CALM      30.04R                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    53  44  71 W5        29.97S                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     41 N/A N/A W6          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     43 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A    N/A N/A N/A S32         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     45  36  70 W15G23      N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     46  36  66 NW13        N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     46  36  66 N20         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;717138
FXUS61 KBTV 121144
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
644 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies today with temperatures 
returning to seasonal normals as high pressure builds into the
region today and tonight. The potential for some rain showers 
returns Friday afternoon, especially over the southern third of 
Vermont. Dry weather and slightly below normal temperatures are 
expected on Saturday as high pressure exists over the area. 
However, the dry weather will be short lived as a low pressure 
system approaches from the west on Sunday and bring widespread 
showers to the North Country, mainly in the form of rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 644 AM EST Thursday...Overall forecast in good shape and
no big changes needed at this time. Main tweaks were to
temperature and dew point trends which have been falling for
much of the night and are now starting to level off just a bit.
Rest of forecast remains unchanged with no precipitation, but
plenty of mid and high level clouds over the area.

Previous Discussion...
Cooler and drier air continues to slowly make its way across 
the area early this morning in response to low level west to 
northwest flow. This low level cold air advection will continue 
throughout the day and this will allow for a day with high 
temperatures right around seasonal normals. Not expecting any 
precipitation but southwest flow aloft is expected to maintain 
plenty of mid and high level clouds across the area today. Areal
coverage of the mid and high clouds will decrease tonight 
before returning again on Friday. Upstream shortwave trough will
be moving toward the region on Friday and low level flow will 
back to the south and southeast and should be able to tap into 
some of the deeper moisture down across the mid- Atlantic and 
southern New England regions. Thus looking at increasing chances
for some light rain, mainly across southern and eastern 
Vermont. At this time amounts look to be a tenth of an inch or 
less. Highs on Friday will generally be in the 40s to around 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 350 AM EST Thursday...A weak front will pass through 
Friday night. Winds will shift from southerly to westerly and 
drier, but not appreciably colder, air will push into the area. 
Expect seasonably cold weather with variably cloudy skies, 
including a period from the overnight through the morning in 
which we should see some snow showers in the higher terrain of 
the Adirondacks, Greens, and Northeast Kingdom. However, given 
only a low-level saturated layer with temperatures > -10 C, it 
will be difficult to see more than a few flakes in most areas as
the drier air aloft wins out. By afternoon, expect skies to 
trend towards more sun than clouds, with perhaps some snow 
showers lingering in northeastern Vermont. With northwest winds,
some of the breezier conditions will be downslope areas of the 
Adirondacks and Greens, but nothing particularly blustery. 
Temperatures should manage to reach into the 40s in most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 350 AM EST Thursday...Deep ridging will be in place 
Saturday night, supporting clear skies, relaxing winds, and a 
chilly start to the period. Towards daybreak high clouds will 
rapidly move into the North Country, with lowering and 
thickening clouds arriving Sunday morning from the south and 
west as a burly low pressure system approaches. Rain will arrive
in northern New York during the morning and gradually spread 
eastward. Looks like an all rain event, except perhaps a quick 
shot of snow at the onset especially at elevations above 3000 
feet, as 850 mb temperatures surge above freezing by the time 
precipitation arrives. Looks like the trend of the global model 
consensus has been to take the surface low a little farther 
south and east, putting strong upper-level divergence over our 
area and supporting a widespread soaking rainfall of roughly 
0.5" mainly over a six to nine hour period. This storm track 
also favors strong winds aloft, which will translate to locally 
gusty south winds in the Champlain Valley.

Sunday night rain should gradually exit to our east with some colder 
air working in behind the system. Given the moist cyclonic flow in 
place, showers should develop and snow levels will lower over time. 
There may be light snow accumulations by Monday morning over the 
highest terrain, but it's during the day on Monday that a wider area 
should see snow showers and sufficient cooling for some light snow 
accumulations. It continues to be possible for lake-effect snow to 
enhance snowfall before winds become more northerly Monday night. 
Plenty of cloud cover should linger through this period keeping 
temperatures stuck in a narrow range, and mainly from the mid-30s to 
mid-40s.

By Tuesday morning, the air will be cold enough for snow just about 
everywhere, but moisture will be limited. Some upslope snow showers 
will develop but current indications are that upper-level forcing 
will not support widespread precipitation over the North 
Country. Will maintain low chance of snow showers in the upslope
favored areas. Most activity will wane Tuesday night as 
subsidence increases with the upper-level trough shifting to our
east. During this time, northwest winds will a shot of even 
colder air, resulting in temperatures dropping well below 
freezing. All signs point to Wednesday being the coldest day of 
the season so far as a piece of Arctic air settles into the 
area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...Still looking at VFR and MVFR ceilings for
the area today, especially through 00z. Fairly widespread 
cirrus clouds exist and should persist through about 00z. There
are some clouds between 2000 and 3000 feet that will be moving 
into the region from the west and southwest and will linger 
through about 00z. Clearing skies are expected for all areas 
after 00z. Winds will be gusty from the northwest this morning 
with gusts up to 20 knots through about 14z before slowly 
tapering off as the day progresses. Expecting light and variable
winds for all areas after 00z.

Outlook...

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Likely RA, Chance SN.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely RA,
Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Evenson

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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