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SKIVT-L  November 2020, Week 2

SKIVT-L November 2020, Week 2

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (237 lines)

Expires:202011132100;;766539
FPUS51 KBTV 131109
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
606 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2020


VTZ006-132100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
606 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2020

.TODAY...Partly sunny this morning, then mostly cloudy with a
chance of rain showers this afternoon. Highs in the lower 40s.
Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow showers
until midnight, then partly cloudy after midnight. Little or no
snow accumulation. Lows in the lower 30s. West winds around
10 mph. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow showers
in the morning, then partly sunny with a slight chance of rain
showers in the afternoon. Snow accumulation a dusting to 1 inch
possible. Highs in the upper 30s. West winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance
of precipitation 40 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 20s. West winds
10 to 15 mph. 
.SUNDAY...Rain or a chance of snow. Little or no snow
accumulation. Breezy with highs around 40. Southeast winds 20 to
25 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Rain or snow likely. Little or no snow
accumulation. Lows in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation
70 percent. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of rain or snow showers.
Highs in the lower 40s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid 30s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 20. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 20s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows 15 to 20. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 30s. 

$$


Expires:202011131200;;767795
ASUS41 KBTV 131131
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-131200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTCLDY    29  26  89 CALM      30.08F                  
MONTPELIER     FOG       24  23  96 CALM      30.12S VSB 1/4          
MORRISVILLE    MOCLDY    24  22  91 CALM      30.11S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     26  25  96 MISG      30.09F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      25  24  96 CALM      30.09S FOG              
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      25  24  93 CALM      30.09F                  
RUTLAND*       PTCLDY    28  28 100 E3        30.08F                  
SPRINGFIELD    PTCLDY    27  25  92 CALM      30.12F                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      31  28  90 E3        30.08F                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    25  23  93 CALM      30.11S                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    32  29  88 CALM      30.05F                  
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     21 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     32 N/A N/A E7          N/A  WCI  26          
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     30 N/A N/A E26         N/A  WCI  16          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     39  34  81 SE12        N/A  WCI  32          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     37  34  87 W1          N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     36  34  93 SE5         N/A  WCI  32          

$$


Expires:No;;767959
FXUS61 KBTV 131138
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
638 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
After a dry start for today, some scattered, light rain showers
will develop this afternoon and evening as a fast moving upper 
trough moves northeast into our area. On Saturday, a few 
isolated showers will be possible, generally confined to the 
higher terrain with most other areas staying dry. Then, on 
Sunday, low pressure approaches from the west and brings 
widespread precipitation. Most areas will see rain, with a few 
areas in higher terrain of the Adirondacks and portions of 
eastern Vermont seeing a brief period of snow on Sunday followed
by a transition to rain. Conditions become colder behind this 
system into the new week with chances for showers continuing.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 627 AM EST Friday...Temperatures currently in the 20s for
most of the North Country. Relatively quiet weather to start 
this Friday morning. Then, increasing clouds and a chance for 
some light rain showers. During the afternoon, a vort max at the
base of a negatively tilted trough will try to squeeze as much 
as it can out of some moisture from the remnants of Eta that 
just grazes our forecast area. A jet streak about the size of 
Ohio, from Ohio, will pivot with this feature, and we'll be in 
the left exit region of this streak as it lifts north. Falling 
surface pressures and the adjusting wind field around the 
developing surface low should provide favorable low- level 
convergence as well. Residence time of moisture is not long, so 
generally expecting a few hundredths possible up to a tenth in 
the mountains. Generally just a dusting expected for snow at the
summits. Highs will generally reach the 40s. After sunset and 
as temperatures cool, a few areas could see some light snow.

Friday night, expect drying as the system departs. There's no
significant change in air mass, but we will retain some winds and
clouds. So expect lows in the 30s with some 20s in the cool hollows.
Within westerly flow, high res guidance agrees on the development of
orographically enhanced showers, Saturday as low-level lapse 
rates steepen, and surface temperatures warm while mid-level 
cold advection takes place. There is not much in the way of 
additional forcing outside of orographically induced lift. Flow 
is semi-blocked with Froude numbers from local BTV4 wrf about 
0.8. This would generally indicate the best chances nearer the 
summits. Moisture is lacking, particularly in the DGZ. So any 
snow showers in the higher terrain will not produce snow of 
particularly good quality. Highs in the mid to upper 30s in the 
Dacks and Northeast Kingdom, generally near 40 to mid 40s 
everywhere else.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 344 AM EST Friday...High pressure starts out over the area
Saturday night, but will be moving eastward as the night wears on.
Clear skies and light winds early will allow temperatures to fall
quickly with lows in the upper teens to upper 20s expected. Winds
will start to increase from the Champlain Valley westward during the
overnight hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 344 AM EST Friday...Still looking at an active period of
weather in the extended forecast. It all starts Sunday with potent
upper trough approaching from the west. Pressure gradient will
continue to strengthen during the day over northern New York and
western Vermont and eventually eastern Vermont later in the day.
Precipitation moves into northern New York during the late morning
hours and then across Vermont during the afternoon hours. The
thermal profile is interesting as it suggests colder air aloft will
be slow to move east of the area. The lowest levels begin to warm
for a good deal of the area to see rain, however dynamic cooling
from upper trough suggests portions of the northern Adirondacks and
eastern Vermont could stay cold enough to see some snow Sunday
afternoon and night. Precipitation totals Sunday and Sunday night
look to be in the two tenths to half inch range. The precipitation
does end Sunday evening, but this is when we see the development of
lake effect precipitation off of Lake Ontario as colder air moves
into the region. Forecast soundings show better mixing as well and
conditions will get rather gusty from the west and southwest Sunday
night into Monday with gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range with
noticeably higher gusts in the mountains. A transition will take
place Monday night into Tuesday as northwest flow aloft develops
over the area. This will push lake effect precipitation out of our
area and we could see some mountain snow showers on Tuesday before
even colder and drier air moves in for Wednesday and Thursday with
temperatures well below normal during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Currently VFR, except at KMPV, where FZFG
at 1/4SM visibility has held on since high clouds have been a
bit slower than anticipated. Think FZFG could last about another
hour at KMPV before dissipating. Otherwise, southeast winds 
becoming more south to southwest at 5 to 10 knots by 18Z. Also 
at 18Z, light showers or sprinkles should move north into KRUT 
and KMPV, and perhaps additional TAF terminals as a cold front 
moves in from the west. Pockets of 1500-2500ft agl ceilings are 
likely as this takes place at KMPV/KRUT/KSLK, and then 
gradually lifting towards 00Z. As the front crosses, winds 
become west to northwesterly around 5 knots. Ceilings remain
around 3500-5000ft agl. 

Outlook...

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite RA, Chance
SN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely RA,
Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...Haynes

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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April 2009, Week 5
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