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SKIVT-L  November 2020, Week 2

SKIVT-L November 2020, Week 2

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sat, 14 Nov 2020 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (248 lines)

Expires:202011142100;;817232
FPUS51 KBTV 141044
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
541 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020


VTZ006-142100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
541 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

.TODAY...A slight chance of snow showers this morning. Cloudy
with a slight chance of rain showers. Highs in the upper 30s.
Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of
precipitation 20 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 20s. Northwest winds
around 10 mph until midnight, becoming light and variable. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a slight chance of rain in the
morning, then cloudy with rain or snow likely in the afternoon.
Snow accumulation a dusting to 1 inch. Windy with highs in the
lower 40s. Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph,
increasing to 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph in the
afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Rain, breezy with lows in the mid 30s. South
winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of rain near
100 percent. 
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow showers.
Little or no snow accumulation. Highs in the lower 40s. West
winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of
precipitation 30 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid 30s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows around 20. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 20s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows 15 to 20. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 30s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows in the mid 20s. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Highs in
the lower 40s. Chance of snow 30 percent. 

$$


Expires:202011141200;;819271
ASUS41 KBTV 141130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SAT NOV 14 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-141200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    43  30  60 W14G26    30.00R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    38  31  76 VRB3      29.99R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    42  28  57 NW7       29.97R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     33  31  92 MISG      29.95R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   LGT RAIN  34  32  94 W5        29.96R WCI  29          
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    34  34  99 CALM      30.00R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    38  36  92 VRB6      30.00R                  
SPRINGFIELD    PTCLDY    30  30 100 CALM      29.99R FOG              
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    40  32  73 W5        30.00R                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    37  34  87 W13       29.97R WCI  29          
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    41  34  76 W7        30.02R                  
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     37 N/A N/A W1          N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     28 N/A N/A SE37        N/A  WCI  11          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     43  34  70 W18G29      N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     43  32  65 NW31        N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     45  28  53 SW15G26     N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;818994
FXUS61 KBTV 141127
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
627 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet conditions today, except at the higher summits, where some
rain or snow showers will be possible. Cool west to northwest
winds will keep our region in the upper 30s to mid 40s today. 
Breezy on Sunday, followed by widespread precipitation as 
strong low pressure tracks northwest of our area. While most 
will experience rain, higher terrain of the Adirondacks, the 
Greens, and the Northeast Kingdom could see snow mix in at 
times. On Monday and Tuesday, gradually diminishes towards the 
higher elevation, then dry and cold on Wednesday and Thursday. 
Another system moves in late Thursday into Friday as 
temperatures warm.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 607 AM EST Saturday...We never really cooled overnight. Morning
temperatures are in the mid 30s to lower 40s as they were around
midnight. Had to adjust max temperatures up... because some
places were already over their forecast high by a degree or 
two. Otherwise, low to mid 40s is expected with little to no 
warming under abundant clouds and cool west winds. Also reduced 
PoPs, as orographic rain or snow showers have not materialized,
except for a few spots in the Northeast Kingdom. Still think 
there's some potential near the summits, but reduced amounts 
overall. Any snow at the summits will be negligible. High 
pressure will be positioned overhead tonight, so efficient 
cooling should take place for some time before south winds start
to kick in. Overnight lows in the teens to mid 20s (perhaps 
single digits at KSLK, but without snow, decided to compromise 
at 12).

Sunday starts out pleasantly with light south winds. Then those
south winds pick up late morning as pressure gradients tighten ahead
of a low deepening towards 975mb as it heads towards James Bay in
Canada. Expect widespread 15 to 25 mph winds and gusts around 30 to
45 mph, especially on northwest facing slopes from southeast
downslope winds. Shortly thereafter, precipitation will begin to
move in, and winds become more southwesterly. So, the potential for
long-lasting strong winds seems limited, but cannot rule out the
potential for isolated outages from downed trees or large branches.

Precipitation is expected generally in the afternoon hours, but
there could be some light activity associated with warm advection
early in the morning as the upper ridge crests. The bulk will come
with an occluding cold front with intensifying FGEN and deformation
as it pivots into our area. Intense height falls across our forecast
area and our placement in the left exit region of a 130kt upper jet
speaks to favorable dynamics over our forecast area. A vigorous,
negatively tilted trough advects across our region with strong
cyclonic vorticity advection. As a result, widespread 
precipitation should envelop our forecast area in the evening. 
While temperatures climb into the 40s, anticipate efficient 
dynamical cooling from moderate to heavy precipitation. Snow 
levels should fall to about 1500ft above sea level as surface 
temperatures across these areas fall to 33-36 F. There could be 
a brief shot of heavy, wet snow as we head towards Sunday 
evening. The forecast favored a top-down approach blending the 
cooler NAM3 with the warmer GFS and using max wet-bulb temps 
aloft. The window for snow is fairly narrow, but in that span a 
quick burst of a dusting to 1.0" seems possible 1500ft above sea
level, counting what falls Sunday night. It won't be completely
clean with flakes mixing in with rain. There's also a window 
for some sleet, freezing rain mix before the mid-level inversion
erodes, mainly confined to higher terrain. Most accumulations 
will thus be on elevated, grassy surfaces.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 327 AM EST Saturday...Widespread precipitation will exist over
the area Sunday evening as cold front and surface low move across
the North Country. Bulk of precipitation will be rain, but there
will be some snow or even some mixed precipitation over parts of the
northern Adirondacks, the Green Mountains, and northeast Vermont.
Snow amounts will generally be on the light side...up to an inch.
The widespread precipitation will move east, but colder air moving
in over Lake Ontario will start to develop lake effect precipitation
late Sunday night into Monday with additional light snow possible
over parts of the northern Adirondacks and north central and
northeast Vermont with mainly rain showers at the lower elevations.
Deeper mixing develops late Sunday night and especially on Monday
for gusty southwest winds across the region. Looking at 25 to 35 mph
wind gusts with higher values in the mountains. Lows Sunday night
will be in the 30s with highs on Monday in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 327 AM EST Saturday...There will be a slow transition to
northwest flow aloft Monday night through Tuesday night. This will
lead to a gradual shift of the lake effect precipitation southward
and out of our area. Once the northwest flow aloft becomes
established there could be some upslope snow showers in the
mountains along with noticeably colder air aloft. Temperatures at
850 millibars on Wednesday will be -15C and thus only looking at
high temperatures in the 20s to around 30. Conditions moderate
starting Thursday as flow aloft becomes more westerly with time.
High temperatures should reach seasonal normals by Friday. A
shortwave trough moving toward the region could bring some snow and
rain showers to the region Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...Mostly VFR, with pockets of MVFR as
ceilings occasionally dip just below 3000ft agl. Light, terrain
driven showers have not materialized, so thinking SLK should
remain dry through the period. Winds west to northwest at 5 to
10 knots with a few gusts of 15 to 20 knots possible through
18Z. After 18Z, high pressure moves in and overcast skies 
gradually clear, with winds becoming light and variable. As 
high pressure shifts east, winds become east to southeasterly 
around 5 knots after 09Z.


Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Definite RA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite RA,
Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...Haynes

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December 2009, Week 3
December 2009, Week 2
December 2009, Week 1
November 2009, Week 5
November 2009, Week 4
November 2009, Week 3
November 2009, Week 2
November 2009, Week 1
October 2009, Week 5
October 2009, Week 4
October 2009, Week 3
October 2009, Week 2
October 2009, Week 1
September 2009, Week 5
September 2009, Week 4
September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
August 2009, Week 5
August 2009, Week 4
August 2009, Week 3
August 2009, Week 2
August 2009, Week 1
July 2009, Week 5
July 2009, Week 4
July 2009, Week 3
July 2009, Week 2
July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
June 2009, Week 4
June 2009, Week 3
June 2009, Week 2
June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
May 2009, Week 3
May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
April 2009, Week 4
April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
March 2009, Week 4
March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
February 2009, Week 4
February 2009, Week 3
February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
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January 2009, Week 4
January 2009, Week 3
January 2009, Week 2
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December 2008, Week 3
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October 2008, Week 4
October 2008, Week 3
October 2008, Week 2
October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
September 2008, Week 4
September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
August 2008, Week 5
August 2008, Week 4
August 2008, Week 3
August 2008, Week 2
August 2008, Week 1
July 2008, Week 5
July 2008, Week 4
July 2008, Week 3
July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
June 2008, Week 2
June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
May 2008, Week 4
May 2008, Week 3
May 2008, Week 2
May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
February 2008, Week 4
February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
January 2008, Week 5
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January 2008, Week 3
January 2008, Week 2
January 2008, Week 1
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December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
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November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
August 2007, Week 2
August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
May 2007, Week 4
May 2007, Week 3
May 2007, Week 2
May 2007, Week 1
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April 2007, Week 3
April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
February 2007, Week 3
February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
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January 2007, Week 3
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January 2007, Week 1
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December 2006, Week 2
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November 2006, Week 3
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October 2006, Week 4
October 2006, Week 3
October 2006, Week 2
October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
September 2006, Week 4
September 2006, Week 3
September 2006, Week 2
September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
August 2006, Week 4
August 2006, Week 3
August 2006, Week 2
August 2006, Week 1
July 2006, Week 5
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July 2006, Week 3
July 2006, Week 2
July 2006, Week 1
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June 2006, Week 4
June 2006, Week 3
June 2006, Week 2
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May 2006, Week 5
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May 2006, Week 3
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October 2005, Week 3
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October 2005, Week 1
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July 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 1
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May 2005, Week 3
May 2005, Week 2
May 2005, Week 1
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April 2005, Week 4
April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
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February 2005, Week 1
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May 2002, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 3
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March 2002, Week 1
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February 2000, Week 1
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December 1999, Week 5
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