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SKIVT-L  November 2020, Week 2

SKIVT-L November 2020, Week 2

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Tue, 10 Nov 2020 06:50:04 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (247 lines)

Expires:202011102100;;615312
FPUS51 KBTV 101130
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
627 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2020


VTZ006-102100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
627 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2020

.TODAY...Sunny. Highs around 70. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. South winds
around 10 mph. 
.VETERANS DAY...Partly sunny in the morning, then becoming
cloudy. A 50 percent chance of showers. Highs in the upper 60s.
Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows around 40. West winds
15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s. Northwest winds
around 10 mph. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 50. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 40. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Highs in
the lower 40s. Chance of rain 30 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain
showers. Lows in the upper 30s. 
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain showers.
Highs around 50. 

$$


Expires:202011101200;;615324
ASUS41 KBTV 101130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-101200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLEAR     48  40  73 E5        30.10S                  
MONTPELIER     CLEAR     37  37 100 CALM      30.17R                  
MORRISVILLE    FOG       34  34 100 CALM      30.13R VSB 3/4          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     36  36 100 MISG      30.14S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FOG       37  37  98 CALM      30.15F VSB 1/2          
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      50  41  71 S3        30.14S                  
RUTLAND*       CLEAR     42  39  89 SE8       30.16S                  
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       33  33 100 CALM      30.18F VSB 1            
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      58  39  49 S6        30.08S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      46  41  81 S7        30.11F                  
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     38  35  89 CALM      30.17S                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     28 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     34 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     36 N/A N/A N1          N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     52 N/A N/A SW25        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     55  45  67 S15G22      N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     54  46  76 S18         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     52  45  76 S10         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;615470
FXUS61 KBTV 101134
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
634 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be the last of a handful of dry days with well above
normal temperatures. A cold front will cross the north country 
late Wednesday and will bring windy and showery conditions, 
followed by a slight cooling trend towards more seasonable 
temperatures for the second half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 630 AM EST Tuesday...No changes for the update this
morning. Fog which has formed mainly just in the Connecticut
river valley will lift in the next hour or 2. Previous
discussion follows. 

One more dry and warm day is expected today as surface high 
which provided all the warmth and dry weather slides eastward 
and off the coast. Southerly return flow develops between 
departing high and approaching low. Therefore winds will be a 
bit breezy today out of the south. Temperatures today should be 
about a degree higher than yesterday, highs ranging from the 
upper 60s into the lower 70s. Once again some maximum 
temperature records will fall today. No precipitation is 
expected and skies will stay sunny through most of the day with 
some clouds moving into the region towards sunset. Tonight will 
also be warm with southerly flow continuing on increasing 
pressure gradient and warm air advection regime continues. 
Minimum temperatures will only dip into the 50s across the area.
Some high minimum temperature records will also probably be 
achieved. See climate section below. Weather will then become 
more active on Wednesday. A low pressure system will pass well 
north of our region, and drag a cold front across the region 
sometime around 00z Thu. Best dynamics with this system will be 
well to our north closer to the center of the low, and best 
moisture will remain south of our area. Therefore, expect this 
front will cross the region with very little fanfare and only 
some scattered light rain showers are anticipated. Wednesday 
will be cloudy and breezy ahead of the cold front, but still 
warm. Maximum temperatures will range through the 60s areawide, 
this is over 10 degrees above seasonal normals for Nov 11. Winds
will be strongest in the Champlain valley and especially on 
Lake Champlain. Much of our area will have less than a tenth of 
an inch of rain, but some upslope regions in the Adirondacks and
southern Greens could approach a few tenths of an inch.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 AM EST Tuesday...An occluded frontal boundary 
continues southward overnight with very dry air quickly 
advecting in. It will be cooler in the St. Lawrence Valley with 
lows in the upper 30s. Warmer in the southern Connecticut River 
Valley, where the front has yet to pass, with lows in the lower 
50s. Surface high pressure looks eager to nose into the region 
once more. Mid to upper flow still remains southwesterly, as the
upper trough still has not reached our forecast area. Thus, 
mid- level moisture will continue to stream overhead. There's a 
slight chance some overrunning precipitation could remain across
south- central Vermont, but 850mb dewpoints are around -20 C. 
There's also considerable disagreement with regard to how much 
moisture is available around 700mb and with regard to whether 
weak cyclogenesis begins (or more likely fails) to create a 
surface low around Cape Cod or off the Mid-Atlantic. Was tempted
to just remove precipitation chances from the forecast entirely
since the moisture axis is to our south along with better low- 
level convergence, but decided to leave at least a slight chance
of rain going for south- central Vermont on Thursday. 
Everywhere else should be dry. High temperatures will generally 
be in the upper 50s to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM EST Tuesday...A dry day will unfold Friday. 
Towards the afternoon, a cold front will sweep through, but 
without much in the way of moisture. It will come through with 
little fanfare, but there could be a few showers late evening 
and overnight Saturday. Cold advection behind this front will 
make for a cool Saturday, with highs in the low to mid 40s. 
Surface winds trend southeasterly overnight, which will keep 
overnight lows from falling too far. It should be seasonable 
with lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

Models diverge on Sunday. After a dry start, a negatively 
tilted trough will move into the Great Lakes region. The main 
difference is timing, but there are discrepancies with location 
too. EC/ICON are faster and bring in precipitation by early 
Sunday morning, with the GFS/CMC/UKMET about 12 hours slower. 
There's also a second, vigorous shortwave trough right behind 
this. So, there are plenty of moving parts that will keep the 
first half of next week busier. While models suss out the finer 
details, will leave 30-50 PoPs running Sunday through Tuesday. 
As the system departs eastwards, northwest flow brings in colder
temperatures, and we should see precipitation taper off towards
the mountains summits and off Lake Ontario.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...VFR conditions are expected at all
terminals over the next 24 hours. Winds will pick up out of the
south today and will have an increase in high clouds later
today. Previous discussion follows. 

Outlook...

Veterans Day: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.CLIMATE...
With well above normal temperatures expected through the next 
few days, some daily maximum temperature and high minimum 
temperature records could be reached across the North 
Country. Here are the daily records for our climate sites: 

Max Temp Records:
Date     KBTV     KMPV     K1V4     KMSS     KPBG     KSLK
11-10  74|1948  68|1948  65|2011  70|2002  69|1948  68|1942
11-11  71|2002  71|2002  71|2002  70|2002  74|2002  67|2002

Record High Minimum Temperature Records:
Date     KBTV     KMPV     K1V4     KMSS     KPBG     KSLK
11-10  57|1966  51|1977  45|2000  52|1966  52|1948  54|1966
11-11  53|1984  51|1984  43|2002  52|1970  50|1946  46|1970

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Neiles
CLIMATE...WFO BTV

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