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SKIVT-L  November 2020, Week 2

SKIVT-L November 2020, Week 2

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sun, 8 Nov 2020 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (239 lines)

Expires:202011082100;;514096
FPUS51 KBTV 081131
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
629 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2020


VTZ006-082100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
629 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2020

.TODAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. Light and variable winds,
becoming southwest around 10 mph this afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...Clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Southwest winds around
10 mph. 
.MONDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. Southwest winds around
10 mph in the morning, becoming light and variable. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the upper 40s. South winds around
10 mph. 
.TUESDAY...Sunny. Highs around 70. South winds around 10 mph. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.VETERANS DAY...Showers likely. Highs in the mid 60s. Chance of
rain 70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the mid 40s. Chance of
rain 60 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 50s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 40s. 

$$


Expires:202011081200;;514011
ASUS41 KBTV 081130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SUN NOV 08 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-081200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTCLDY    44  40  85 CALM      30.29R                  
MONTPELIER     CLEAR     39  39 100 CALM      30.34R FOG              
MORRISVILLE    PTCLDY    38  37  97 CALM      30.31R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     37  36  96 MISG      30.32R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FOG       40  40  98 CALM      30.33R VSB 1            
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      45  41  85 CALM      30.30S                  
RUTLAND*       CLEAR     42  41  96 SE8       30.32S                  
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       37  36  96 CALM      30.32R VSB 1/4          
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      56  42  60 S5        30.29R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      45  41  87 CALM      30.31R                  
BENNINGTON     PTCLDY    37  34  89 CALM      30.34R FOG              
ISLAND POND*     N/A     36 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     39 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     41 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     50 N/A N/A S18         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     55  48  76 S10         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     52  48  87 S9          N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     50  46  87 S5          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;505587
FXUS61 KBTV 080821
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
321 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Near record to record high temperatures are expected again 
today through Tuesday as strong high pressure at the surface and
aloft remains in control. Ongoing dry weather will persist 
through Tuesday before an approaching cold front brings windy 
and showery conditions for Wednesday. Temperatures will trend 
back closer more seasonable levels late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1229 AM EST Sunday...The unseasonably strong deep-layer 
ridge centered over the mid-Atlantic states will remain in 
control of our weather through the near-term period (and into 
Tuesday). Associated 500mb heights and 850mb temperatures 
extending northward into the North Country today/Sunday will 
remain +2 to +3 standard deviations above the CFSR 
climatological mean values, leading to a continuation of near 
record to record temperatures (see climate section below for 
existing records). Upstream GOES-16 imagery suggests just 
passing thin cirrus today and tonight. With similar 925/850mb 
temperatures to Saturday and close to full sunshine, continued 
with the idea of highs being approx 5deg above the MOS 
consensus, with valley highs reaching 69-73F. With surface ridge
axis bisecting the North Country this afternoon, winds should 
be somewhat lighter than yesterday, generally S-SW at 5-10 mph. 

Should see winds subside, becoming light and variable after 
sunset with PBL stabilization. Dry conditions and dewpoints in 
the 40s will maintain large diurnal temperature ranges with 
overnight lows in the mid 40s across the Champlain Valley, and 
38-45 across the Adirondacks and central and eastern VT. 

Upper tropospheric/300mb vort cresting the upper ridge on 
Monday may bring some additional high cloudiness for Monday, but
little change in sensible weather conditions. Looking for 
valley highs again upper 60s to lower 70s and south winds at 5 
to 10 mph. PoPs NIL through the near-term period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 245 AM EST Sunday...Warm and dry weather, with near 
record breaking temperatures, continues for Monday night and 
Tuesday with surface and upper level ridging still anchored off 
the east coast. As the high slides a bit eastward, flow across 
our area becomes more southwesterly. Temperatures will be quite 
mild Monday night with lows only dropping into the 40s to lower 
50s. Temperatures will be warmest in the St Lawrence valley and 
eastward across the international border of NY and VT. On 
Tuesday low pressure system begins to track toward our region, 
lifting from the central plains towards the Great Lakes region. 
Warm air advection will be ongoing across our area on southerly 
return flow and maximum temperatures will reach the upper 60s to
lower 70s, about 20 degrees above seasonal normals for early 
November. We will start to see an increase in clouds during 
Tuesday afternoon entering our region from the west. 

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 320 AM EST Sunday...Precipitation will spread into our 
forecast area Tuesday night from west to east as surface low 
lifts northward into Ontario and then Quebec. Winds will pick up
out of the south ahead of approaching cold front which will 
eventually cross our forecast area close 18z Wed. Rain showers 
will be pretty widespread across our area on We, though some 
shadowing will probably be evident due to strong low level winds
and also a low level jet. Despite connection to the Gulf and 
PWAT values around 1.5", precipitation will be a bit light for 
our forecast area, about 0.25-0.5". Better dynamics remain north
of our region, closer to low center which passes through 
northern Quebec. Temperatures on Wed will be pretty warm before 
the frontal passage, highs generally range through the 60s. Rain
showers will wind down Wed night, and end by 12z Thu. 
Temperatures will fall behind departing cold front on Wed night 
and Thu, and highs on Thu will be in the 50s still just a bit 
warmer than seasonal normals. Another surface ridge passes 
overhead, but this one is ridging down from Canada so don't 
expect the anomalously warm temps again. Models are indicating 
another large scale system to potentially impact the north 
country next Sunday into Monday, but this is very far out at 
this time. 

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...Strong high pressure will maintain VFR 
conditions with SKC-SCT250 expected at the North Country TAF 
locations. Light and variable orographically-driven winds will 
become S-SW 5-10kts during the daylight hrs, with a return to 
light and variable conditions for tonight. 

Outlook...
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. 
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. 
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. 
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Veterans Day: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely 
SHRA. 
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight 
chance SHRA. 
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.CLIMATE...
With well above normal temperatures expected through the next 
few days, some daily maximum temperature and high minimum 
temperature records could be reached across the North 
Country. Here are the daily records for our climate sites: 

Max Temp Records:
Date     KBTV     KMPV     K1V4     KMSS     KPBG     KSLK
11-08  74|1996  67|1996  62|2011  73|1996  67|1975  70|1945
11-09  68|2011  69|2009  67|2011  70|2009  68|2009  70|1945
11-10  74|1948  68|1948  65|2011  70|2002  69|1948  68|1942
11-11  71|2002  71|2002  71|2002  70|2002  74|2002  67|2002

Record High Minimum Temperature Records:
Date     KBTV     KMPV     K1V4     KMSS     KPBG     KSLK
11-08  57|1895  62|1975  46|2008  50|1975  58|1975  56|1975
11-09  52|1945  47|1950  48|2006  47|1966  49|1966  48|1966
11-10  57|1966  51|1977  45|2000  52|1966  52|1948  54|1966
11-11  53|1984  51|1984  43|2002  52|1970  50|1946  46|1970

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Banacos
CLIMATE...WFO BTV

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