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SKIVT-L  November 2020, Week 2

SKIVT-L November 2020, Week 2

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Wed, 11 Nov 2020 06:50:04 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (278 lines)

Expires:202011112100;;666071
FPUS51 KBTV 111110
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
608 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020


VTZ006-112100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
608 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020

.TODAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers this morning, then
cloudy with showers likely this afternoon. Highs in the upper
60s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance
of rain 70 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Cloudy with showers likely until midnight, then partly
cloudy with a slight chance of showers after midnight. Lows
around 40. West winds 10 to 15 mph, becoming northwest after
midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly
sunny. Highs in the mid 40s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 20s. Northeast
winds around 10 mph. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s. Southeast winds
10 to 15 mph. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of rain showers.
Highs in the upper 40s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 30s. 
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain showers.
Highs in the mid 40s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow
showers. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation
40 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow
showers. Highs in the mid 30s. 

$$


Expires:202011111200;;667196
ASUS41 KBTV 111131
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST WED NOV 11 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-111200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTCLDY    63  54  72 S16G25    29.90S                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    58  53  84 CALM      29.99R                  
MORRISVILLE    MOCLDY    47  46  97 CALM      29.92F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     40  39  97 MISG      29.95S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      50  48  93 E3        29.97F                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    63  55  74 S12       29.95S                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    54  52  93 E8        29.97F                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    44  43  96 CALM      30.00S                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      64  54  69 S14       29.87S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      55  52  88 S6        29.93S                  
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     63  55  75 S6        29.98F                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     36 N/A N/A S1          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     41 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     46 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     54 N/A N/A SW36G47     N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     59  54  82 S8          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     57  54  88 S22         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     61  55  82 S20         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;666758
FXUS61 KBTV 111125
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
625 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will cross the region today bringing 
scattered light rain showers to the region. Behind the front a 
return to cooler, more seasonable weather is in store for late 
week. The next chance of showers occurs by early next week in 
association with additional frontal energy.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 618 AM EST Wednesday...An area of rain showers has begun
to move into the St Lawrence valley early this morning, this is
a bit earlier than anticipated. Have updated pops and weather
grids to reflect that. Mid level clouds have moved into the
central Vermont area as well. Otherwise, no changes to the going
forecast. Previous discussion follows. 

Scattered light rain showers spread across our region today as 
a cold front approaches from the west. Most of the showers will 
be out ahead of the cold front, which will cross our area from 
about 21-06z with a fine line of showers. We will not see a lot 
of precipitation with this system as best dynamical support 
remains well north of our region, and best moisture will be to 
our south. Showers will spread into our Northern New York zones 
in the 13-16z timeframe, the Champlain valley in the 16-19z 
timeframe, and then eastern Vermont from 19-22z. As mentioned, 
will probably see a more distinct fine line of showers with 
actual fropa which will exit our forecast area by about 06z. 
Rainfall totals will range from just a few hundredths of an in 
up to about a quarter of an inch. Some higher elevation regions 
in Southern Vermont could see a bit more. We will have strong 
southerly winds today before the precipitation begins, 
especially in the Champlain valley and on and along Lake 
Champlain. Winds will gust to 30 kts at times. Temperatures will
also be pretty warm this morning ahead of the precipitation 
beginning, currently only 64 degrees at BTV, so I'm still 
confident that we'll reach 70 before the precipitation begins 
despite lack of sunshine. 850 mb jet of about 45 to 50 kts will 
cause some shadowing effects downwind of the Dacks and Greens. 
Behind the departing cold front precipitation should shut down 
pretty quickly. Our winds will turn to westerly, then continue 
to veer to northwesterly then northerly on Thursday. Thursday 
will feature slightly warmer than normal temperatures, but will 
feel pretty cool after the stretch of abnormally warm 
temperatures we just experienced.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 415 AM EST Wednesday...By far the coldest night so far this
week is expected Thursday night given light winds, dry air, and a
more seasonable air mass in place. Low temperatures in most areas
will range from the mid 20s to low 30s. High pressure overhead will
gradually retreat to our northeast which will allow light winds to
shift direction from northerly to easterly during the overnight
hours. By Friday morning, a potent, compact shortwave trough will be
near the North Country, providing upper-level divergence that will
promote cyclogenesis somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic and the resulting
low pressure area will move northeastward spreading an area of rain
into New England during the afternoon. Winds will pick up out of the
southeast to south and low clouds along with a narrow axis of
moderately deep moisture will be ushered into southern portions of
Vermont and the Adirondacks before pushing farther north and east.
While eastern Vermont is still most favored to see rain, how far
west the back edge goes is still uncertain. At this time, 
expecting Windsor and Rutland counties to see upwards of 0.1" of
light rain during the morning and then even lesser amounts 
spread northeastward over eastern Vermont through the afternoon.
While precipitation may start as snow in the higher terrain, 
accumulation is not expected before a changeover to rain. 
Temperatures will be somewhat dependent on the cloud cover and 
precipitation, so it will be chillier in many areas of southern 
and eastern Vermont than farther north and west.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 415 AM EST Wednesday...A brief cool down to near normal
temperatures through Saturday night will take place behind a cold
front that passes by Friday night. However, with heights building
behind the front and shortwave trough lifting quickly to our
northeast, the weather should be pleasant with modest (< 10 MPH)
west winds and partly cloudy skies. Enjoy the calm while it lasts,
as an active period will follow for the rest of this period with
precipitation and lowering temperatures from above normal on Sunday
to below normal on Tuesday.

A round of strong south winds will develop on Sunday well ahead of a
vigorous storm over the Great Lakes. While model agreement has been
improving, still kept chances below likely with various details
unclear at this time. Generally it looks at if rain, likely
beginning as snow given below freezing low-levels over the North
Country Sunday morning, will spread across most areas by evening.
The rain stabilize the boundary layer so winds should relax once the
rain moves in, but the south wind will keep temperatures and dew
points mild through much of Sunday night.

On Monday, cold cyclonic flow to the south of the deep low pressure
area over eastern Canada should promote lake effect precipitation
downwind of Lake Ontario on Monday. Strong cold air advection will
enhance instability over the Great Lakes, although temperatures near
the surface will support mainly rain at first. A west-southwest wind
along with falling snow levels, however, would support snow over at
least the higher elevations of the Adirondacks and into the Greens,
especially towards Monday night. This threat will need to be
monitored closely, as it hinges on having a vertically stacked low
pressure system more similar to what the CMC depicts as opposed to a
weaker, progressive low pressure system like what the GFS shows at
this time. Outside of the lake-effect snow potential, we should see
periods of upslope snow through Tuesday as the core of an Arctic
blast moves into the North Country with gustier west to northwest
winds. Temperatures will likely peak in the upper 20s to mid-30s,
about 10 degrees lower than on Monday, as another taste of 
winter returns.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...A bit of a challenging TAF forecast. Have
timed showers to move into the region from west to east today.
We also have some gusty winds in the Champlain valley at BTV and
PBG. Some MVFR cloud decks have moved into the MPV and RUT area.
Ceilings should lower areawide to 2000-3000 ft at all sites 
mid morning. Rain should be pretty light, therefore don't
expected visibilities to drop below 6sm most of the time. Winds
mainly light to moderate southerly through the forecast period,
occasionally gusty during daylight hours at favored terminals. 
Southwesterly LLWS from 35 to 45 kts the primary concern today 
at most terminals. Precipitation should be ending by about 06z
across all terminals.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance RA.
Friday Night: MVFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
With well above normal temperatures expected for one last day, 
some daily maximum temperature and high minimum temperature 
records could be reached across the North Country. Here are the 
daily records for our climate sites: 

Max Temp Records:
Date     KBTV     KMPV     K1V4     KMSS     KPBG     KSLK
11-11  71|2002  71|2002  71|2002  70|2002  74|2002  67|2002

Record High Minimum Temperature Records:
Date     KBTV     KMPV     K1V4     KMSS     KPBG     KSLK
11-11  53|1984  51|1984  43|2002  52|1970  50|1946  46|1970

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Neiles
CLIMATE...WFO BTV

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October 2010, Week 3
October 2010, Week 2
October 2010, Week 1
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September 2010, Week 3
September 2010, Week 2
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August 2010, Week 3
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August 2010, Week 1
July 2010, Week 5
July 2010, Week 4
July 2010, Week 3
July 2010, Week 2
July 2010, Week 1
June 2010, Week 5
June 2010, Week 4
June 2010, Week 3
June 2010, Week 2
June 2010, Week 1
May 2010, Week 5
May 2010, Week 4
May 2010, Week 3
May 2010, Week 2
May 2010, Week 1
April 2010, Week 5
April 2010, Week 4
April 2010, Week 3
April 2010, Week 2
April 2010, Week 1
March 2010, Week 5
March 2010, Week 4
March 2010, Week 3
March 2010, Week 2
March 2010, Week 1
February 2010, Week 4
February 2010, Week 3
February 2010, Week 2
February 2010, Week 1
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January 2010, Week 4
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December 2009, Week 5
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October 2009, Week 3
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October 2009, Week 1
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September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
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August 2009, Week 4
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August 2009, Week 1
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July 2009, Week 3
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July 2009, Week 1
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June 2009, Week 4
June 2009, Week 3
June 2009, Week 2
June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
May 2009, Week 3
May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
April 2009, Week 4
April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
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March 2009, Week 4
March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
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July 2008, Week 1
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June 2008, Week 1
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October 2006, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 3
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March 2002, Week 1
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