Expires:202011202100;;108980
FPUS51 KBTV 200803
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
301 AM EST Fri Nov 20 2020
VTZ006-202100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
301 AM EST Fri Nov 20 2020
.TODAY...Cloudy. Highs in the lower 50s. Southwest winds 10 to
15 mph.
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. A slight chance of rain showers after
midnight. Lows in the mid 30s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph,
becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. A slight chance of rain or snow showers
in the morning. Highs in the lower 40s. Northwest winds 10 to
15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation
20 percent.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. North winds
around 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 30s. Southeast winds
10 to 15 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Rain likely or a chance of snow. Light snow
accumulation possible. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of
precipitation 70 percent.
.MONDAY...Rain or snow likely. Little or no additional snow
accumulation. Highs in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation
70 percent.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s.
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 30.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows around 20.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow or rain showers.
Highs in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow or rain
showers. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation
40 percent.
.THANKSGIVING DAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s.
$$
Expires:202011201200;;118263
ASUS41 KBTV 201130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2020
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-201200-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON CLOUDY 47 28 47 S17G30 30.11S
MONTPELIER CLOUDY 39 28 64 CALM 30.15S
MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 34 28 79 CALM 30.11S
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 36 26 67 MISG 30.13
LYNDONVILLE* CLOUDY 36 26 66 CALM 30.15S
MIDDLEBURY* CLOUDY 46 28 49 S10 30.18S
RUTLAND* CLOUDY 52 27 38 W8 30.19S
SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 30 26 85 CALM 30.22R
HIGHGATE* CLOUDY 49 25 39 S7 30.08S
NEWPORT* CLOUDY 41 23 48 S8 30.11S
BENNINGTON CLOUDY 41 30 65 CALM 30.22S
ISLAND POND* N/A 34 N/A N/A CALM N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 30 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 37 N/A N/A SW46G60 N/A WCI 22
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 48 34 57 S23G36 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 46 37 71 S28 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 45 32 61 S18 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;118733
FXUS61 KBTV 201145
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
645 AM EST Fri Nov 20 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy and mild conditions continue today under considerable
high clouds. A cold front will sag through the area tonight with
little fanfare other than to cool temperatures back toward
seasonal normal levels for Saturday. The next chance of
significant precipitation occurs by later Sunday into Monday as
low pressure passes through the Saint Lawrence Valley.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 645 AM EST Friday...Modest adjustments to sky cover and
hourly temperatures were made at 630 am. Temperatures were
nudged toward current trends through late morning. Primary sky
cover adjustments were made for late tonight/Saturday with most
recent data showing higher mid-level rh becoming trapped beneath
post-frontal synoptic inversion. This would suggest cloudier
conditions for much of the day on Saturday, especially for
central/northern counties. Have a great day!
Prior discussion...
Mainly a persistence forecast for today with a few adjustments.
Fast west to southwesterly flow aloft continues ushering in a
mild airmass, with high temperatures expected to range through
the 50s in most spots with upper 40s to around 50 in
northeastern VT. LAMP and bias- correct LAMP output is
performing fairly admirably this morning so was used to drive
hourly temperature trends and resultant maximum temperatures
through early evening. While considerable mid to high clouds
persist, a dry boundary layer argues for near nil PoPs. Breezy
conditions also continue with south to southwesterly gusts from
10 to 20 mph and locally around 30 mph in the Champlain Valley
where channeling effects will be maximized.
By tonight a well advertised cold front sags south through the area.
This front will be moisture starved, and other than a few
sprinkles/higher elevation flurries no precipitation is expected
with chances generally capped below 30 percent. Temperatures hold
mild this evening ahead of the front (40s/50s), then fall overnight
as winds shift northwesterly with lows by sunrise Saturday in the
30s to around 40.
Outside a few lingering morning sprinkles/flurries Saturday will
shape up as a largely seasonal and dry late November day with
variable clouds in the northern high terrain and partly sunny skies
in the broad valleys. Modest post-frontal cold advection is expected
through the day on northwesterly breezes of 10 to 15 mph. This puts
a brake on temperatures, with values only climbing some 3-5 degrees
from morning lows, topping out from the upper 30s to mid 40s (upper
40s far southeast).
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 349 AM EST Friday...Dry weather expected Saturday night and
during the majority of the daytime hours on Sunday. Sunday will
feature below normal temperatures, with a chilly start to the day
with morning lows in the low to mid 20s. Light NW winds will keep
highs in the low/mid 30s to around 40 across the area on Sunday.
Clouds will be increasing Sunday afternoon ahead of an
approaching warm front. Models have finally come into fairly
good agreement on track of main surface low, with center of low
pressure advancing up the Ohio River Valley Sunday and into the
St Lawrence Valley by Sunday night. Expect precipitation to
begin moving into the southern St Lawrence Valley towards 21z
Sunday as leading edge of warm front quickly moves into northern
New York on nose of 50-55 kt SW 850mb jet. Precipitation should
quickly overspread all of northern New York and into Vermont,
arriving in the Champlain Valley by 7PM and eastern VT by
midnight. Precipitation will likely begin as snow as thermal
profiles wet- bulb down to freezing, however given strength of
aforementioned 850mb jet anticipate areas outside the immediate
St Lawrence Valley should change over to rain fairly quickly
with mainly a 2-3 hr window of snow likely.
Some slightly variability exists in exact thermal profiles (and
strength of 850mb warm nose). Main area of concern for any
mixed precipitation/freezing rain will be the St Lawrence
Valley. Given mean track of low pressure up the St Lawrence
Valley, NE winds should funnel down the immediate river valley
with near to sub- freezing air extending from Massena down
towards Ogdensburg where a 4-6 hr period of freezing rain may be
possible late Sunday into Monday. A few scattered pockets of
freezing rain can't be ruled out across the higher terrain of
the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom of VT, but expect these
areas to remain mainly rain/snow.
Generally, precipitation amounts of 0.50-0.75" are expected, highest
within the St Lawrence Valley with 1 to 3" of snow possible for
areas across northern New York and eastern VT, with a dusting
within the Champlain Valley. Icing amounts for the St Lawrence
Valley, Dacks and NEK, look to be less than 0.10" at this time.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 349 AM EST Friday...Surface cold front moves through from west
to east between 09-15z Monday with continued chances for scattered
rain/snow showers possible through the Monday night. Winds shift out
of the W/NW behind this front with overnights low dipping into the
mid teens/low 20s. Upper level riding and surface high pressure move
in quickly Tuesday morning. High on Tuesday will be seasonably
chilly in the low to mid 30s. Breezy NW winds Tuesday morning will
abate by afternoon as high moves overhead. Beyond this, temperatures
look to moderate however chances for several storm systems exist
throughout the week. No significant snow storms appear to be on the
horizon at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Primary concern will continue to be
areas of strong west/southwest LLWS from 35 to 45 kts. This
will create areas of moderate to locally severe turbulence on
approaches/departures today. LLWS tends to abate at KBTV/KPBG by
18Z, but will linger elsewhere. Otherwise mainly VFR through
the forecast cycle with SCT/BKN mid/high cigs generally in the
070-200 AGL range. No precipitation is expected. Later tonight,
generally after 06Z, passage of dry surface cold front should
foster BKN/OVC MVFR cigs at northern terminals. Surface winds
generally south to southwesterly 08-18 kt, occasionally gusty to
15-30 kt at selected terminals including KBTV which will lie on
the higher end of this range. After 00Z winds generally abate
and veer to west/northwest in the 06-12Z time frame with passage
of the front.
Outlook...
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SN, Slight chance RA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely RA,
Definite FZRA, Chance SN.
Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely RA, Definite FZRA,
Chance SN.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EST Friday...A Lake Wind Advisory remains in
effect for today. South winds of 20 to 30 knots with occasional
gusts to 35 knots are expected this morning, which will only
gradually abate this afternoon. This will create choppy to rough
conditions on open waters and bays/inlets with open southerly
exposures. These conditions could prove difficult to hazardous
for those planning to operate small craft today, so caution is
advised. Winds will continue to abate to more modest levels
tonight as a cold front crosses the area.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...LaRocca
LONG TERM...LaRocca
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...JMG
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