Expires:202011192100;;070236
FPUS51 KBTV 191125
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
622 AM EST Thu Nov 19 2020
VTZ006-192100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
622 AM EST Thu Nov 19 2020
.TODAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 30s. South winds 10 to
15 mph.
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. Southwest winds
10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 40s. Southwest winds
10 to 15 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of sprinkles. Lows in
the mid 30s. West winds 10 to 15 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of sprinkles. Highs in the
lower 40s. Northwest winds around 10 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow showers.
Highs in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a chance of rain or snow showers.
Lows in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
.MONDAY...Rain showers likely or a chance of snow showers. Highs
in the lower 40s. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s.
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 30s.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 20.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow or rain showers.
Highs in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.
$$
Expires:202011191200;;070668
ASUS41 KBTV 191130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST THU NOV 19 2020
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-191200-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON CLOUDY 25 12 58 S9 30.47F WCI 15
MONTPELIER CLOUDY 17 12 80 E3 30.49R
MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 20 12 71 S6 30.47F WCI 12
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 18 12 77 MISG 30.47S
LYNDONVILLE* CLOUDY 17 11 78 CALM 30.46S
MIDDLEBURY* CLOUDY 24 12 61 S8 30.48F WCI 15
RUTLAND* CLOUDY 21 14 74 CALM 30.50R
SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 20 12 71 CALM 30.52S
HIGHGATE* CLOUDY 25 10 54 S8 30.44F WCI 16
NEWPORT* CLOUDY 18 10 73 S5 30.44F WCI 11
BENNINGTON CLEAR 19 14 81 CALM 30.50S
ISLAND POND* N/A 12 N/A N/A CALM N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 10 N/A N/A MISG N/A
LAKE EDEN* N/A 18 N/A N/A SW3 N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 16 N/A N/A CALM N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 28 19 69 SE21G29 N/A WCI 15
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 30 25 80 S26 N/A WCI 16
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 27 18 69 SE12 N/A WCI 16
$$
Expires:No;;070609
FXUS61 KBTV 191130
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
630 AM EST Thu Nov 19 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to build across and east of the region
today into tomorrow with considerable high clouds, breezy
conditions and milder temperatures. A mainly dry cold front
pushes through the region Friday night, behind which cooler air
arrives for the upcoming weekend. The next chance of significant
precipitation arrives later Sunday into Monday as low pressure
tracks into the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 630 AM EST Thursday...Minor adjustments to sky cover were
made at 600 am to nudge conditions toward current observational
trends. Otherwise overall philosophy is unchanged. Have a great
day!
Prior discussion...
The forecast remains largely on track over the next 42 hours.
Strong surface high pressure centered over the Mid Atlantic
region will shift offshore today allowing a strengthening
southerly pressure gradient to develop across the region. This
will create breezy conditions in many areas by afternoon,
especially in the Champlain Valley where gusts into the 30-40
mph range look reasonable. Robust mid to upper level jet energy
also arrives from the west-southwest today and will push
considerable high clouds into the region owing to strong warm
thermal advection aloft. No precipitation is expected however as
the boundary layer remains quite dry. High temperature forecast
a blend of this morning's more realistic solutions offering
late day values from 35 to 40 east, in the 40s for the Champlain
Valley/eastern NY, and upper 40s to near 50 for the SLV.
Then continued dry with plenty of passing high clouds for tonight
into Friday under fast west-southwest semi-zonal flow aloft. Modest
southerly flow at the surface, gusty at times, will continue in
favored locales. Low temperatures tonight considerably milder than
this morning - generally from 30-40 with a few upper 20s in eastern
VT counties. Then quite mild for Friday which should be the warmest
in the 7-day forecast stretch - upper 40s to mid 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 245 AM EST Thursday...Really no changes were needed to
the forecast other than to add mention of sprinkles/flurries as
cold front sinks south across the area Saturday. No measurable
precipitation is expected. Sounding profiles continue to show
best moisture within the lowest levels, 1000-850mb, Friday night
into Saturday. Have raised Friday night temperatures slightly
and lowered highs on Saturday accordingly based on more clouds.
Generally speaking, lows Friday night will be in the mid 30s to
around 40, with highs Saturday in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
Winds through the period will be out of the W trending NW around
10-15 mph.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 AM EST Thursday...Pretty tricky forecast for first
part of the extended period. We continue to watch the evolution
of a low pressure system forming along the lee side of the
Colorado Rockies and its advancement eastward. Main variability
between the models at this point diverge on how subtropical
shortwave energy and northern stream shortwave interact across
the Midwest on Sunday. Overall, model guidance has shifted very
little from 12z suite. ECMWF continues to depict more amplified
pattern and therefore slower onset of precipitation and warmer
solution compared to a more zonal pattern offered by the GFS
which brings in precipitation by Sunday night. Canadian remains
somewhere in the middle between these two. Have made very little
changes to the forecast for this time period based on general
lack of consensus, but have broadened potential timing of
precipitation to account for these varying solutions. Therefore,
chances for precipitation arrive late Sunday and persist
through the day on Monday. As we get a better idea on this
system, this window will narrow. Thermal profiles are still to
be determined as these are largely contingent on arrival of
precipitation. After this, a brief period of dry weather is
expected Tuesday before another system arrives by midweek,
however how this system evolves could be the difference between
a wet or a dry Thanksgiving.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...Primary concern will be strong LLWS
throughout the forecast period. Otherwise VFR expected with
cigs generally ranging SCT/BKN from 100-200 AGL. Winds southerly
and increasing to 10-20 kt and gusty into the 18-30 kt range
today, abating to modest levels after 00Z but remaining gusty
at selected terminals, such as KBTV. Southwesterly LLWS to
overspread all terminals in the 12-00Z time frame, with values
from 35-45 kts at VT terminals (including KBTV) and 45-60 kt at
northern NY terminals. This will produce moderate to potentially
severe mechanical turbulence on departures and/or approaches.
Outlook...
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 245 AM EST Thursday...A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect
for today. South winds will increase across the broad lake and
associated shoreline locations through the daylight hours.
Sustained winds of 15 to 25 knots with occasional gusts to 35
knots are expected, which will create choppy to rough conditions
on open waters and bays/inlets with open southerly exposures.
These conditions could prove difficult to hazardous for those
planning to operate small craft today, so caution is advised.
Gusty south winds are expected to continue tonight into Friday,
though at a slightly lesser magnitude.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...LaRocca
LONG TERM...LaRocca
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...JMG
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