Expires:202210112000;;228738
FPUS51 KBTV 110744
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
340 AM EDT Tue Oct 11 2022
VTZ018-112000-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
340 AM EDT Tue Oct 11 2022
...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...
.TODAY...Areas of frost this morning. Sunny. Highs in the upper
50s. Light and variable winds, becoming southwest around 10 mph
this afternoon.
.TONIGHT...Clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Southwest winds around
10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. South winds
around 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. South
winds 10 to 15 mph.
.THURSDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the lower 60s. South winds
15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Showers. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows
in the upper 40s. Chance of rain 90 percent.
.FRIDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the upper 50s. Chance of rain
70 percent.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 40.
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s.
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows around 40. Highs
in the mid 50s.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 40s.
.MONDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the lower 50s. Chance of rain
70 percent.
$$
Expires:202210111100;;235858
ASUS41 KBTV 111030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT TUE OCT 11 2022
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-111100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON CLEAR 33 30 88 CALM 30.27S
MONTPELIER FOG 30 26 85 CALM 30.30S VSB 1/2
MORRISVILLE FOG 30 27 88 CALM 30.29R VSB 1/4
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 30 28 92 MISG 30.28R
LYNDONVILLE* N/A 28 27 98 CALM 30.28R
MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 32 32 100 CALM 30.28R
RUTLAND* FOG 37 37 100 SW3 30.29S VSB 1
SPRINGFIELD FOG 38 37 97 W3 30.30R VSB 1/2
HIGHGATE* FAIR 32 32 99 SE3 30.26S
NEWPORT* FAIR 29 27 92 S5 30.27R WCI 23
BENNINGTON FOG 31 30 96 CALM 30.29R VSB 1/4
ISLAND POND* N/A 21 N/A N/A CALM N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 25 N/A N/A MISG N/A
LAKE EDEN* N/A 27 N/A N/A CALM N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A N/A N/A N/A CALM N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 45 41 87 S14 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 37 37 100 SE7 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;230368
FXUS61 KBTV 110814
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
414 AM EDT Tue Oct 11 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather is expected from today through Wednesday night
with surface and upper level ridging over the region. A strong
low pressure system lifts north of our region towards the end of
the week, and strong cold front crosses our region later
Thursday into Thursday night. Will have strong southerly winds
and heavy rain with this frontal passage.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 410 AM EDT Tuesday...Very quiet weather is on tap for
today through Wednesday with ridging at the surface and aloft
over our region. Should have mainly sunny skies today with highs
close to seasonal normals, upper 50s to mid 60s, warmest in the
St Lawrence valley. Think we'll have some gradient wind
overnight preventing extensive fog formation, but could see some
fog form in the typically fog prone valleys overnight. Clear
skies will be in place and low temperatures will dip into the
mid 30s to upper 40s. Some clouds move into the region from the
west towards Wednesday morning and will limit cooling in the St
Lawrence valley. Increasing southerly winds expected on
Wednesday as surface high begins to slide eastward and return
flow develops. It will be a breezy day with a mix of sun and
clouds, high temperatures will reach the mid 60s to around 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 410 AM EDT Tuesday...With high pressure off to our
southeast in the Atlantic Ocean and low pressure to our
northwest in Ontario, Canada, gradient flow will be moderately
strong on Wednesday night, with winds increasing throughout the
night as a low level jet develops overhead. Winds will be
generally out of the south, so channeling in the Champlain
Valley is expected. Winds will be in the 12-17 mph range with
higher winds on Lake Champlain and the mountaintops, with gusts
up to 20-30 mph at times. These winds could be an issue with the
upcoming rain, as they will likely rip leaves off trees,
allowing a large amount of leaves to end up blocking storm
drains and overall putting an end to the fall foliage season.
Clouds will be in flux throughout the night, but generally
mostly cloudy skies are anticipated, particularly late in the
night a cold front and associated upper level trough approach
from the west early Thursday.
As for precipitation, the GFS and ECMWF both agree on some
rainfall starting for northern New York before 12Z Thursday, but
the Canadian and NAM are not as fast. The NAM3K is hinting at
perhaps some showers associated with a shortwave piece of
vorticity, but overall the NAM solutions keep the notable
rainfall after 12Z. Went for highest PoPs in St. Lawrence County
with 50-60%. If rain does begin early, there could be some
downpours, but the bulk of the heavy rain event is expected to
occur throughout the day Thursday. Lows will be in the 40s to
mid-50s, a bit mild compared to normal as cloud cover keeps the
environment from radiating too much.
The cold front will continue to push toward the forecast area
Thursday, meeting deep moisture surging from the south,
producing moisture convergence across a narrow corridor.
Soundings are looking quite saturated with Pwats of 1.25-1.50"
and above the climatological 90th percentile. Rainfall rates
could be around 0.50- 1.00" an hour in downpours where
convective elements repeatedly occur as the upper level trough
becomes negatively tilted. Went with PoPs highest in northern
New York and some of southern Vermont Thursday afternoon where
the cold front will bring heavy rain first, with 90-100% chances
in some areas due to good agreement and confidence.
There's the chance the storm could be progressive, limiting
overall rain totals, but rain is still anticipated to be heavy.
On the other hand, there could instead be a slow-moving narrow
cold frontal rainband, allowing for 6-12 hours of heavy
rainfall. Overall, the system looks incredibly dynamic, with all
the important ingredients lining up. Portions of the
Adirondacks could see up to 1.50" in 6 hours on Thursday
afternoon. Thunder is also possible with this frontal passage,
but not expected to be widespread. The better chance for storms
will be to our south where there will be more instability.
Highs Thursday will be in the 60s for most, a couple degrees
below what we've previously been forecasting to account for
clouds, but still about 5-10 degrees above average. Gusty
southerly winds will continue throughout the day, shifting to be
more southeasterly, and we're keeping an eye on the potential
for a low-topped squall line. These gusty winds could diminish
slightly as moisture saturates the atmosphere, but gusts are
expected to be in the 30-35 mph range across the mountains of
the forecast area.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 410 AM EDT Tuesday...The cold front mentioned above is
expected to finally cross the forecast area on Thursday night as
more heavy rain falls, primarily across Vermont as the front
moves west to east. PoPs in the 90-100% range for the eastern
half of Vermont and some continued high PoPs for northern New
York, about 80-90% in spots. With the lack of daytime heating,
thunderstorms are less likely overnight as lows fall to the 40s
and around 50 F behind the front. By early Friday, heavy rain
will be primarily in the Northeast Kingdom, with potentially
some sunshine peaking through in northern New York. Gusty winds
will likely drop off Friday morning. Rainfall totals through the
end of Thursday night are anticipated to be in the 1.00- 2.50
inch range across the forecast area.
Friday will be a chillier day than Thursday as the region
gradually dries out and PoPs fall into the teens for areas
outside the Northeast Kingdom and St. Lawrence Valley. Highs
forecast to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. However, flow will
be southwesterly, keeping the area from cooling too
substantially. Weather will continue to be unsettled through
early next week as the trough spins over Canada. Saturday and
Sunday we have highs in the 50s to around 60 F. Another
shortwave could take a swing at the area Sunday into Monday,
potentially with another frontal boundary. Best chances of
precip will be Monday afternoon, and highs drop to the 40s and
50s with the cold pool aloft finally moving into the region
behind the boundary.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06z Wednesday...Fairly quiet aviation period aside from
fog which has developed in the valleys of Vermont, especially
in southern Vermont where they had the most rainfall on Monday.
Some high clouds passing overhead, but this has not limited any
fog persisting. Have had IFR or lower at MPV and SLK most of the
overnight, with RUT seeing some improvement due to increase in
drainage flow. All fog should lift by about 14z. Then we'll have
a mostly sunny day with generally light winds.
Outlook...
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Windy with gusts
to 30 kt. Definite SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Definite SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
As of 410 AM EDT Tuesday...A slowing cold front and negatively
tilted shortwave are expected to interact with around 1.25-1.50"
of precipitable water from the Atlantic late Wednesday night
into early Thursday morning, leading to heavy rainfall across
the North Country Thursday and Vermont late Thursday through
Thursday night. Total rainfall amounts of 1.50- 2.50" are
expected, with highest amounts across the Adirondacks and Green
Mountains. There's potential for 6-12 hours of heavy rain. Leaf
fall could clog drainage across the region leading to localized
flooding.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ002-005-009-
011-016>021.
Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ006-008-010.
NY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ026>028-035-
087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Neiles
HYDROLOGY...Storm
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