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October 2022, Week 5

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Subject:
From:
Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Sun, 30 Oct 2022 06:50:03 -0400
Content-Type:
text/plain
Parts/Attachments:
text/plain (208 lines)
Expires:202210301500;;320477
FPUS51 KBTV 300725
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
322 AM EDT Sun Oct 30 2022


VTZ018-301500-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
322 AM EDT Sun Oct 30 2022

.TODAY...Sunny. Highs around 60. Light and variable winds,
becoming south around 10 mph this afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. South winds
around 10 mph. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. South winds
around 10 mph. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. South winds
around 10 mph. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs around 60. Light and variable
winds. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid
40s. Highs in the upper 50s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. 
.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Highs around 60. Lows
in the mid 40s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent
chance of showers. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the lower 60s.

$$


Expires:202210301100;;328565
ASUS41 KBTV 301030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SUN OCT 30 2022

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-301100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLEAR     31  27  85 CALM      30.28S                  
MONTPELIER     CLEAR     28  21  75 CALM      30.32S                  
MORRISVILLE    CLEAR     25  21  85 CALM      30.30S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     26  23  88 MISG      30.30F                  
LYNDONVILLE*     N/A     28  26  95 CALM      30.30S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      30  26  85 CALM      30.27F                  
RUTLAND*       CLEAR     32  25  75 SE8       30.30F WCI  25          
SPRINGFIELD    PTCLDY    27  24  89 CALM      30.32S                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      32  29  90 CALM      30.28R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      31  29  91 SW3       30.28R                  
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     27  21  78 S5        30.28F WCI  22          
ISLAND POND*     N/A     23 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     25 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     28 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     48 N/A N/A W1G20       N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS

$$


Expires:No;;329183
FXUS61 KBTV 301048
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
648 AM EDT Sun Oct 30 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures continue today into the upcoming week
with mainly dry conditions prevailing. High pressure will
result in plenty of sunshine today with temperatures warming
into the upper 50s to mid 60s with light south winds. Clouds
increase on Monday afternoon with temperatures back in the 60s,
with just a small chance of a few light rain showers late Monday
night into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 644 AM EDT Sunday...No changes needed to crnt fcst with
temps ranging from 20F NEK to mid 40s acrs the midslope and
higher summits. As sunrises temps wl warm quick into the upper
50s to mid 60s with south winds 4 to 8 mph. All covered well in
crnt fcst. 

Previous discussion below: This morning obs show a wide range 
in temps based on elevation, as a sharp llvl thermal inversion 
prevails. This has resulted in cool temps in the deeper valleys 
with SLK at 23F, while many midslope and ridgetops are well into
the 40s. As sfc temps warm and some mixing occurs by mid 
morning, expect a more uniform temp profile to develop. Given 
BTV was 62F for a high temp on Saturday and progged 925mb temps 
warm another 1 to 2 degrees C by 18z today, expect highs upper 
50s to mid 60s most locations. Have 65F here at BTV with upper 
60s possible in a few locations, if slightly better mixing can 
occur. In addition, soundings indicate very dry air aloft, as Mt
Washington dwpt is crntly -9F, and feel as mixing occurs today,
some of this drier air aloft wl transfer to the sfc, creating 
critical low rh values in the 20 to 30% range. However, winds 
remain light and generally under 10 knots, so minimal fire wx 
concerns attm. Tonight, expecting a wide range in temps again, 
with warmest values in wider valleys of the SLV and CPV, along 
with midslope locations. Gradient tightens slightly ahead of our
next system, so anticipating south winds here in the CPV, 
resulting in BTV temp holding in the 40s, while on west side of 
lake would not be surprised in PBG dips into the l/m 30s. 
Coolest values wl be SLK/NEK and deeper valleys of central VT 
with temps in the upper 20s/lower 30s. For Monday, the challenge
wl be impacts of mid/upper lvl clouds spreading from sw to ne 
acrs our cwa. Progged 925mb temps remain in the 10-12C range, 
but guidance indicates increasing 850 to 500mb rh fields by 
midday, resulting in some high clouds. Have kept temps similar 
to today with values in the 60s, given we should be starting out
4 to 6 degrees warmer, especially wider valleys. Given very dry
llvls have not mention any pops for Monday in our cwa.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 424 AM EDT Sunday...The passage of an upper-level shortwave
will bring a chance for rain showers late Monday evening through
Tuesday. However, rain will be slow to start given the dry airmass
to overcome at the onset. Additionally, the lack of convergence
means that showers will be scattered in nature. Initially, showers
will be driven by warm air advection processes combined with
orographic lift. This will be followed by a weak boundary on Tuesday
and then light, terrain driven showers under northwest flow
continuing through Tuesday night. At this point, though, moisture
aloft will be waning and any precipitation will likely be in the
form of drizzle. Temperatures will remain above normal through the
period with overnight lows in the 40s Monday into Tuesday, and high
temperatures in the low to mid 60s on Tuesday. Tuesday night lows
will again be in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 424 AM EDT Sunday...Above normal temperatures continue through
mid-week with highs in the low to mid 60s. Dry weather is expected
for Wednesday and Thursday as upper-level ridging crests overhead.
Wednesday night looks to be the chilliest night of the week thanks
to radiational cooling with lows in the 30s. The warm and dry trend
will continue through the end of the work week under increasing
southwest flow, with the next chance for any meaningful
precipitation occurring next weekend with a frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...Early morning fog product shows some very
localized fog across the CT River Valley, but not impacting any
of our taf sites. A large dome of high pres conts with VFR
conditions anticipated for the next 24 hours, along with south
winds 4 to 8 knots. Given increasing winds just above the sfc
and very dry soundings, not anticipating any fog/br tonight into
Monday to impact our taf sites. 

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Isolated
SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Isolated SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Isolated
SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Hammond
LONG TERM...Hammond
AVIATION...Taber

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