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COMMUNET Home

COMMUNET Home

COMMUNET  September 1998, Week 1

COMMUNET September 1998, Week 1

Subject:

Periods of Deflation -- Why?

From:

"W. Curtiss Priest" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Community and Civic Network discussion list <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Tue, 1 Sep 1998 09:46:51 EDT

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (257 lines)

                           W. Curtiss Priest, Ph.D.
                 Center for Information, Technology & Society
                             466 Pleasant Street
                              Melrose, MA  02176
   Internet: [log in to unmask], Voice: 617-662-4044, FAX: 617-662-6882

                   This document may be distributed freely

                               September 1, 1998

                              An Open Discussion
                   with Government, Foundations, Non-profits
                            and Grassroots Efforts


                                CITS DEBT WATCH

            Information Highways, Economic Security, and Community

                               Public Issue #18:

                       "Periods of Deflation -- Why?"


                               ***************
The CITS DEBT WATCH is a publication of our Center in an effort to inform
the public of the seriousness of the current level of U.S. debt.  As
published in prior pieces, the U.S. debt, when compared with the Gross
National Product, is 180% higher than that which preceeded the
"Great Depression."
                               ***************


               Commentary by Dr. W. Curtiss Priest, Director:

As prior issues of the DEBT WATCH have described, we have entered a
phase of the economy where prices are actually falling for the first
time in most people's recollection.

And, as we, Batra, Davidson & Rees-Moog, John L. King, and a number
of others who have studied the past to understand the future, predicted
-- the sky, indeed, is beginning to fall.

But why was this so clear to a few of us, and yet so unclear to
the vast majority of stock holders?

As several prior analyses described, the level of debt does not appear
to have a negative impact on public euphoria.  Indeed, even as we
witness a 512 point drop in the Dow yesterday, today's Boston Globe
also mentions that confidence in Massachusetts business was up
1 1/2% in the last month.

This total and absolute disconnection between debt levels is compounded
by the false signals that deflation (dropping prices) send to the
public.  Dropping prices, accompanied by very low interest rates,
are perversely greeted as some kind of "Christmas present."

The response seems to be -- "well, regardless of my debt, prices
are so enticing and interest rates (say on automobile purchases) are
essentially nil, that we will keep spending" -- beyond all possible means.

While one point of this newsletter of CITS has been to
warn the cautious to protect there money; another purpose has been
to study and document the causes of bubbles and panics so that,
possibly, we might prevent future ones for our children.

In one way, bubbles are a "tribute to the human spirit."  There is,
indeed, the hopeful -- optimistic side to mankind.  We suppose that
were this not part of our genetic make-up that mankind would have
long ago disappeared (Darwinian style) out of the many periods of
bleakness that have faced mankind.  The current dramatic upsurge
in gambling (another product of this optimistic urge) shows that
despite any logical "return on investment" (which is always negative
for gambling) -- there are many who take these "fixes" to
enjoy themselves -- and to stroke whatever hopeful urge lies latent
in the human spirit. (Some may object to the connotation of the
word "fixes" -- but we believe that this is precisely what it is.)

That the stock market should be the grandest of all "fixes" -- then --
comes as no surprise.

Turning to our commentary on Prof. Thurow's fine article about
deflation, we take note that this article is a marked shift from
some other recent articles by him about the positive future of
the economy.

Here we find an elementary, but very helpful, discussion of the
relationship between debt and deflation.  As Thurow says, "[debts]
have to be repaid in dollars of greater value than those that were
originally borrowed.  If prices fall 10 percent, a $100 debt
effectively becomes a $110 debt.  Since money interest rates cannot
go below zero, real interest rates are also very high in deflationary
periods. (below)"

What this insight suggests is a basic linkage between the presence
of debt and the deflationary pressure that creates.  Since interest
rates cannot go below zero, deflation is the mechanism by which
a "real interest rate" is maintained for those who have lent money.

And as Thurow says further, "[i]n the Great Depression of the 1930s, a
vicious cycle emerged as falling prices led to falling GDPs and
falling GDPs led to falling prices."

And, "[s]ince the value of money is going up while the value of
other assets is going down, holding cash becomes the smartest
investment."


**************************************************************************
NOTICE: Contains copyrighted material, do not redistribute unless you
abide to the copyright notice appearing at the end of this article.

As provided for under Section 107 of the 1976 Copyright Law, the
following piece is being distributed for non-profit purposes and for
comment, criticism, and teaching.  In cases where the purpose of
conveying information is to fully inform the reader, the entire body of
the work is reproduced.

Should you wish to convey this material, in the same spirit, you are
free to do so.

****************************Advertisement********************************
Subscriptions to the Boston Globe can be received by calling 617-929-2000
****************************Advertisement********************************
The Boston Globe Tuesday, August 11, 1998

Defaltion, and its painful consequences, may be on the horizon

Falling prices, failing economy Lester C. Thurow


While generalized price declines have not been seen since the 1930s, the smell
of deflation is now strong enough to make it worth thinking about how standard
economic operating procedures change when selling prices start to fall.

Today measured inflation rates are slightly positive, but some of our major
price indexes have had months or even sequences of months when they indicated
that prices were falling. Energy prices have taken a particularly sharp drop. If
health care - a large sector of the economy with sharply rising costs not
subject to global competitive price pressures - is subtracted from these price
indexes and the quality corrections endorsed by Federal Reserve Board Chairman
Alan Greenspan are incorporated into the measurements, the standard inflation
indexes would show modest price declines in the past few years.

Selling prices are falling dramatically in some industries. Micro-electronics is
the most notable. Parts manufacturing faces falling selling prices. Auto parts
manufacturers, for example, have signed contracts with the major auto suppliers
calling for 3 percent annual price reduction.

The economic meltdown in Asia

is going to increase these downward price pressures substantially. With Asian
currencies down sharply in relation to the dollar, Asia producers can lower
their prices dramatically and still make money. To get the exports they need to
recover, they are going to have to lower prices. US films will have to match
these-price declines or watch their market share decline substantially.

With lower competitive prices come lower profits, or even losses, and falling
stock market values. Last Tuesday's sharp drop in the stock market values was an
expression of the worries troubling most investors. Profit expectations are
being revised downward. Since many families have been using their new stock
market wealth to finance investments in larger houses, a sharp correct in the
stock market would lead to equally sharp declines in real estate prices.

Put falling industrial prices together with falling stock market and real estate
values and one has deflation. Deflation is not inevitable - Japan may yet get
its act together - but its probability is growing daily.

In a deflationary world, debt is to be avoided at all costs. Debts have to be
repaid in dollars of greater value than those that were originally borrowed. If
prices fall 10 percent, a $100 debt effectively becomes a $110 debt. Since money
interest rates cannot go below zero, real interest rates are also very high in
deflationary periods.

If prices are falling 10 percent, a 1 percent money rate of interest effectively
becomes an 11 percent real rate of interest. Put the two together and the
economically smart never borrow. Those who have debts want to repay them as
quickly as possible since debt burdens automatically get larger and larger in
real terms.

Since the value of money is going up while the value of other assets is going
down, holding cash becomes the smartest investment. A dollar held today buys
more tomorrow. One does not rush out to buy, because whatever one wants will be
cheaper next year.

In a deflationary world, business firms cannot afford to hold inventory.
Anything built and sold 30 days from now will have to be sold for less. The Dell
built-to-order model of manufacturing a computer only after it has been ordered
and paid for becomes the only profitable business model. The auto companies, for
example, will have to get rid of their 120 selling days of inventories if they
want to remain profitable. As with individuals, debt repayment becomes the
smartest business investment.

Since getting costs down is the name of the game in a deflationary world, firms
have no choice but to find ways to lower the wages of their employees. If they
don't, the real wages of their employees will effectively be rising and they
will be pricing themselves out of the market. Families facing future wage
reductions don't make good consumers.

Governments find that tax revenue falls since incomes and profits are down.
While their costs of buying goods and services are also down, other obligations,
such as monthly Social Security checks or employee wages, are politically
difficult to reduce. This leads governments to cut spending on the goods and
services they buy from the private economy to avoid having to make those more
painful cuts in other forms of spending. Governments also have the same
incentive to cut spending to eliminate debt and to postpone purchases to wait
for lower prices.

With deflation, it is very difficult for countries to sustain positive growth
rates. Individuals postpone their purchases and repay debts. Businesses cut
their inventories and repay debts. State and local governments cut purchases and
repay debts.

In the Great Depression of the 1930s, a vicious cycle emerged as falling prices
led to falling GDPs and falling GDPs led to falling prices.

Put simply, in the end, a deflation rate of 10 percent is much more painful than
an inflation rate of 10 percent.

Lester C. Thurow is professor of management and economics at the MIT Sloan
School of Management.


***************************************************

Copyright Notice:  This article is protected under copyright law.  The right
to disseminate this article is also protected under copyright law.

The copyright law permits copying of materials for personal use under the
protection of fair use.

The copyright law also permits the copying of recent materials for the
"teachable moment." This allows copying for educational purposes.

Also, the courts generally interpret copyright protection by economic
criteria.  If the copying of a material reduces revenues to the copyright
holder, the court usually decides in favor of the plaintiff; if the copying
doesn't effect or increases the revenues, the court usually decides on
behalf of the defendent.

It is our judgment that occasional copying of a newspaper article does not
reduce revenues to the publisher and can actually create more demand for a
newspaper by attracting readership. An excerpt provides free advertising for
the publisher.

Thus, under fair use, teachable moment, and economic criteria we selectively
convey this copyrighted material to others.

******************************************************


           W. Curtiss Priest, Director, CITS
      Center for Information, Technology & Society
         466 Pleasant St., Melrose, MA  02176
       Voice: 781-662-4044  [log in to unmask]
 Fax: 781-662-6882 WWW: http://www.eff.org/pub/Groups/CITS

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