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SKIVT-L  February 1999, Week 1

SKIVT-L February 1999, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley's Ski Hut <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Tue, 2 Feb 1999 06:50:04 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (556 lines)

999
FPUS51 KBTV 020936 AMD
ZFPVT

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
436 AM EST TUE FEB 2 1999

VTZ001-002-005-009-022100-
GRAND ISLE-FRANKLIN-CHITTENDEN-ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST ALBANS...BURLINGTON...SOUTH BURLINGTON...
WINOOSKI...VERGENNES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
436 AM EST TUE FEB 2 1999

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY...
.TODAY...MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN. SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS
THAN AN INCH BUT SIGNIFICANT ICING FROM FREEZING RAIN LIKELY.
BECOMING BREEZY. HIGH IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S. LIGHT WIND EARLY
BECOMING SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80
PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...PERIODS OF RAIN. LOW IN THE LOWER 30S. SOUTHEAST WIND 15
TO 25 MPH DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90
PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY. OTHERWISE BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. HIGH IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.

$$

VTZ003-004-006>008-010-022100-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...BARRE...MONTPELIER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
436 AM EST TUE FEB 2 1999

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY...
.TODAY...MIXED PRECIPITATION. SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN INCH BUT
SIGNIFICANT ICING FROM FREEZING RAIN LIKELY. HIGH IN THE LOWER 30S.
SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...PERIODS OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN. LOW IN THE LOWER 30S.
PRECIPITATION ENDING LATE. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGH IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.

$$

VTZ011-012-022100-
UPDATED
RUTLAND-WINDSOR-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...RUTLAND
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
436 AM EST TUE FEB 2 1999

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY...
.TODAY...FREEZING RAIN CHANGING TO RAIN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
IN THE LOWER 30S. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.
.TONIGHT...PERIODS OF RAIN TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW IN THE
LOWER 30S. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90
PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY. OTHERWISE BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. HIGH IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.

$$

VTZ013-014-022100-
UPDATED
BENNINGTON-WINDHAM-
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
436 AM EST TUE FEB 2 1999

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY...
.TODAY...FREEZING RAIN CHANGING TO RAIN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S. LIGHT EAST WIND.
.TONIGHT...PERIODS OF RAIN ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW IN THE LOWER
30S. SOUTH WIND LESS THAN 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGH IN THE LOWER AND MID 40S.

$$

 UPDATE TO REMOVE POP STATEMENT FOR TODAY AWAY FROM CANADIAN BORDER




                          National Weather Service

     _________________________________________________________________

FXUS61 KBTV 020726
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
226 AM EST TUE FEB 2 1999

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BAND OF MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS NEW YORK
AND PARTS OF VERMONT THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION OVER WESTERN NEW YORK.  SHALLOW COLD AIR REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND MUCH OF VERMONT WITH LOWER
ELEVATIONS STILL REPORTING TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS WITH
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.  HIGHWAY DEPARTMENT NOW
GETTING REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST
VERMONT...FROM MANCHESTER SOUTH TO THE MASSACHUSETTS BORDER.
FREEZING RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE REMAINDER OF
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY.  SEVERAL FACTORS POINT TO A LONGER DURATION OF FREEZING
RAIN MOST AREAS TODAY.  FIRST...NO REAL WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW TO
OUR WEST WHICH WOULD STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
ALLOW FOR MORE MIXING OF WARMER AIR DOWN TO THE SURFACE. SECOND...
SURFACE GRADIENT MORE SOUTHEAST WHICH WOULD KEEP CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AREA FROM SCOURING OUT VERY RAPIDLY.  THUS GOING FORECAST OF WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT LOOKS REAL
GOOD FOR TODAY.  ENDING TIMES OF THE FREEZING RAIN AND CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN WILL VARY ACROSS THE AREA.  WOULD EXPECT ALL FREEZING RAIN FOR
NY ZONES 26/27/28 TODAY...A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND ALL FREEZING RAIN FOR EASTERN
VERMONT.  PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS MOST AREAS SHOULD RANGE FROM A
QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH.  ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET TODAY
SHOULD PRIMARILY SEE AN ALL RAIN EVENT GIVEN THE SHALLOW NATURE OF
THE COLD AIR.

PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT WITH AT LEAST LIKELY PRECIPITATION DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE NIGHT.  SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL STILL BE HOLDING ON IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AS WELL AS EASTERN VERMONT...BUT RAIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING SUGGESTS CLOUDS AND
SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND VERMONT.  WOULD SUGGEST A CHANCE MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN
ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY LATE IN
THE DAY.

EVENSON/BELL



NNNN

     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS71 KALY 020617
SFDALB

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
117 AM EST TUE FEB 2 1999

.DISC...

.BOTTOM LINE...IN REFERENCE TO PREV FCST WL RMN CLOSE TO STATUS QUO
ON THIS PKG.

.SYNOPSIS...ULVL TROF BEING EJECTED THRU OH VLY/N OF NY TDA. LRG/STG
HIPRES XTRM ERN NOAM CNTRD IN ERN CANADA. LLVL JET AIMED AT ERN NY
TDA SHOULD BE ASSOCD WITH CSDRBL LLVL ISENTROPIC/OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT.
ALTHO CD AIR IS SHLW ACRS NY/NEW ENG...AMS VRY DRY AND XPC SGFNT EVAP
COOLG WITH THIS PCPN EVENT...MAYBE EVEN ENUF TO RSLT IN SOME SNW NRN
VT. HWR...STG LLVL FLOW SHOULD BRING WRMR AIR INTO MUCH OF NY XCLDG
ST LAW VLY BY ERY TAFTN. A SECOND VOT PKG PROGGED SOMEWHERE INTO UPR
OH VLY/ERN GRTLKS LTR TDA AND THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT IT MAY GENERATE
WK SCNDRY WV IN NRN MID ATLC RGN/SRN NEW ENG CST.

.MDLS...QPF FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVERALL ON LATEST RUN OF RAFS/ETA/GEM.
ALL GOING FOR LESS PCPN N...AND LTL MORE THAN HLF INCH S. THEY
SUGGEST AN ICE PROBLEM THRUT RGN TDA...ERY S/W AND LINGERING LT FAR
N/E. ETA MAY BE CDST MDL. GEM ALSO CD TO E AND IN NRN VT...BUT BRINGS
FRZG PCPN TO RN IN HDSVLY ARND NOON/ERY AFTN. RAFS QUICKEST TO WRM
AIR THRUT.

.FLAGS...BASED ON CURRENT QPF BLV THAT NO MORE THAN ADVSRY SHOULD DO
IT FOR THIS SYS. AM PLANNING TO TAKE WS WATCHES TO ADVSRYS FOR TDA...
AND LV ADVSRYS IN PLACE ELSW. FFA A PROBLEM AS QPF PRBLLY NOT ENUF
FOR DSPRD HYDRO PROBLEM. ALSO TEMPS NOT XPC TO GET MORE THAN 10 ABV
FRZG S TDA. HWR...THERE/S AN OUTSIDE CHC THAT QPF WL BE GRTR THAN
CURRENTLY FCST IF SCNDRY WV DVLPS MORE THAN FCST. ALSO...LLVL JET
FEEDING 1 INCH PW AIR S OF LONG ISL INTO SERN PTN OF FCST AREA LT
TDA/TEVE. MAY CHG TIME FRAME OF FFA THO...BACK TO LT TDA/TNGT.

.SHORT TERM...PCPN HAS ARRIVED IN SERN NY/WRN NEW ENG. ATTM VRY CD AT
SFC N OF CAP DIST INTO VT. XPC LONG PD OF FRZG RN...MAYBE EVEN SOME
FRZN PCPN IN THIS AREA TDA...SPCLY VT. GEM/ETA SUGGEST SOME SNW NRN
VT. FORTUNATELY PCPN FCST TO BE LGT...ONLY ARND ONE THD INCH ACRS
MUCH OF N...EVEN LS XTRM NRN NY. BUFKIT/ETA/RAFS SUGGESTS THAT CHG TO
RN WL OCR THIS MRNG MID HDSVLY/W AND NOT TIL LT AFTN/EVE N/E. AT KMSS
ETA KEEPS TEMP BLO FRZG TIL LT TNGT...BUT QPF MINIMAL THERE. STG LLVL
INVRN SHOULD HOLD STG WND ABV SFC...XCP PERHAPS MTNS. ONCE AGAIN
MACHINE MAXT/S MAY BE LTL HI TDA...SPCLY N/E. LWR 40S AT KPOU ABT
RGT.

.LONG TERM...MOST LOCATIONS TO GO ABV FRZG TNGT...BUT NOT BY MUCH.
AND SOME OF NRN VLY PRBLLY WL NEVER GET ABV FRZG. BUT WV PSS E ERY
AND PCPN SHOULD BE OVR BY LTR HLF OF NGT. MIN/T FCST LM 30S IS RSNBL
IN MOST LOCATIONS.

WK SFC RDG ASSOCD WITH DRIER AIR WED. LOW POPS OF FWC LOOK GOOD. HIR
H8/H10 VALUES THAN LAST FEW DAYS SUGGEST HIR MAXT. WL RIDE WITH THE
M40S OF THE MACHINE.

.XTNDD FCST...60/72 HR AVN JUSTIFIES THE MENTION OF CHC OF SOME FORM
OF PCPN THU. THKNS SUGGESTS ONLY SNW. BUT SLY CRCLN AHEAD OF LOPRES
IN GRTLKS IS A CAVEAT...AND SEE NO RSN TO DROP THE PSBLTY OF RN IN S.

TARGETING RELEASE OF COMPLETE SET OF WRKZFP FOR 230/300 AM. HWR...WL
ISSUE SEGMENTED WRKZNS TO APPROPRIATE SRNDG OFFICES PRIOR TO ISSUING
WRKZFP. IF COORD SUGGESTS MAJOR CHG TO CONTENT OF THIS PROD...WL
UPDATE LTR THIS MRNG.

.ALB...WNTR WX ADVY TDA NYZ026>035-042-043-VTZ001>012-NYZ038>041-047
       >054-059-060-061-MAZ001-VTZ013-014-NYZ058-063>066-CTZ001-
       FLOOD WATCH LT TDA/TNGT NYZ047-053-054-058>061-063>066-
       MAZ001-CTZ001-

KHH


NNNN

     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS71 KALY 020213
SFDALB

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
915 PM EST MON FEB 1 1999

.DISC...LOTS OF QUESTIONS RMN ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PCPN EVENT.

FIRST QUESTION OVERALL QPF...THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR FFA AND WINTER
STORM WATCH.  ITS A GIVEN WE/LL HAVE ICING PROBLEMS LT TNGT INTO AT
LEAST A PORTION OF TUE..SPCLY VLY LOCATIONS.  KGFL ALREADY DOWN TO
3 F VSF 14 F.  UP N MSS 12 AND PLB 8 IN NY..MVL VT 10.  -RA ALREADY
INTO W NY WRN AND SRN PA.  GEM LOOKS RIGHT ON...WITH ETA IN BALLPARK.
ETA HAS BEEN HEAVIEST WITH PPCN ALTHO THE GAP BTWN ETA AND NGM HAS
DMSHD WITH EACH RUN.  MODEL ANAL SUGGEST HVYST PCPN WL BE ASSOC WITH
STG LOW LVL JET DVLPG UP THE E CST. IF ETA JET IS OVERDVLPD AS USUAL
IT MAY REDUCE QPF OVR UPSTATE NY WITH GREATEST AMTS S AND E. (UPSLOPE
EFFECTS MAY COUNTERACT THAT SOME) AVN SHOWS TENDENCY FOR JET TO
STRENGTHEN TO OR E AND S WITH MAX PCPN DISPLACED S AND E OF US.

TEND TO FEEL WITH ARE DEALING WITH AN ADVSRY SITUATION FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA.  QPF THU TUE PM BDRLN...AND WITH GENLY S FLOW COLD AIR SHUD
EVENTUALLY LOOSE OUT. I WUD THINK KGFL AREA AND PSBLY PTNS OF CT RVR
WUD BE LAST TO CHANGEOVER.  QPF LESS LKLY TO REACH .5 THERE...MORE
PSBLY SE VT.  I WUD PROBABLY BE MORE COMFORTABLE WITH A WATCH IN KGFL
AREA RATHER THAN OTHER LOCATIONS BUT HAVE THE ADVSRY THERE. WL HOLD
ZONES PSBLY TIL 0315-0330Z FOR LAST MINUTE CHNG BASED ON ETA.

TEMPS...AGAIN LTL DOUBT ICING TO BE A PROBLEM GIVEN CURRENT TEMPS AND
POTENTIAL FOR EVAP COOLG AND TIME OF PCPN ONSET.  NGM WARMR THAN ETA
BUT EVEN ITS TEMPS ARE A BIT SCARY.  GFL 3 HRLYS RMMN AT 32 OR BLO
THRU TUE NGT.


.ALB...WNTR WX ADVY LATE TNGT AND TUE NYZ026>035-042-043-VTZ001>012-
       WNTR STRM WATCH TUE NYZ038>041-047>054-059-060-061-MAZ001-
            VTZ013-014-
       WNTR WX ADVY LATE TNGT AND TUE NYZ058-063>066-CTZ001-
        FLOOD WATCH TUE NYZ047-053-054-058>061-063>066-MAZ001-CTZ001-




NNNN

     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 020144
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
845 PM EST MON FEB 1 1999

PER COORDINATION WITH WFO ALBANY ZONE POPS WILL BE BEEFED UP TO
LIKELY IN FIRST PERIOD FOR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.  WORDING WILL
STRESS TIMING OF PRECIP TO BEGIN TOWARD MORNING...THIS MATCHES UP
BETTER WITH CURRENT WSWALB (WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY).
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT MIGHT NEED TO BE LOWERED...ESPECIALLY ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.  'LOWS 5 TO 15' FOR MIN
TEMPERATURES PREFERRED OVER 'LOWS IN THE TEENS'.  MINS ELSEWHERE
LOOK ON TRACK.  SOME CONCERN ABOUT PRECIP TYPE AS IT BEGINS LATE
TONIGHT...KALY SOUNDING SO DRY (0.13 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER)
THAT EVAPORATIVE COOLING MAY CAUSE SOME AREAS TO START OUT AS
SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS WHERE INVERSIONS HAVE NOT
WEAKENED THAT MUCH SINCE SUNDAY.  PRECIP TYPE WILL BE FREEZING
RAIN MOST AREAS BY MORNING COMMUTE HOURS.

ISSUES FOR TUESDAY ARE HOW RAPIDLY WILL THE TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING AND HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL FALL.  CURRENT ZONE
WORDING FOR TUESDAY REASONABLE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
HANGING AROUND THE MID 30S.  AS NEAR-SURFACE WINDS AND SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES...VALLEY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AS
WELL.  RECOMMEND 'BREEZY' WORDING FOR CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
TUESDAY...AND INCREASING EAST WINDS IN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TO AT
LEAST 10 TO 20 MPH.  EXPECT BELOW-FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO HANG
AROUND LONGEST IN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BUT THEN RISE ABOVE 32F BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

QPF AMOUNTS...ALL 12 UTC MODELS DELIVER 0.2 TO 0.6 INCHES THROUGH
00 UTC WEDNESDAY...WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
HOWEVER...ETA MUCH DIFFERENT FROM NGM/AVN TUESDAY NIGHT IN THAT
IT TAPERS OFF PRECIP EARLY TUESDAY EVENING WHILE NGM/AVN HAVE
THEIR HEAVIEST RAINFALL DURING THESE HOURS.  ETA SCENARIO WOULD
BRING WRAPAROUND PRECIP BACK INTO FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  ETA SEEMS TO HAVE HANDLED THIS SYSTEM BETTER THAN THE
NGM THE PAST FEW RUNS...SO AM INCLINED TO BELIEVE 12 UTC ETA
SOLUTION.  CURRENT ZONE WORDING IN LINE WITH THIS THINKING
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY SO NO UPDATES RECOMMENDED TO THOSE
PERIODS.

ST. JEAN



NNNN

     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS71 KALY 012105 COR
SFDALB

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION - CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
405 PM EST MON FEB 1 1999

.DISC...ETA WETTER THAN NGM/AVN. 12Z MDLS CLDR THAN OOZ OVR FA. ALL
MDLS HV DEEP WRM LYR ALFT THRU THE PRD. BUFKIT PROFILE SHWS SFC BASED
CLD POOL DPNG N OF CAP DIST DURG MID DAY. HIR PKS OF CTSKLS AND
ADRNDCKS MAY EXTND ABV FRZG LVL FOR MUCH OF THE PCPN PRD.

THUS...EXPCT EXTND PRD OF FRZG RA BGNG LATE TNGT THRU MUCH OF
TUE...ESPLY MHWK VLY AND CAP DIST. EVEN NGM HAS FRZG RA 10Z THRU 20Z.
SUBJECTIVE QPFS IN EXCESS OF .5 INCH SGGST A WATCH FOR TUE. N OF CAP
DIST...DPR CLD POOL MAY RSLT IN SLEET OR...FRTHR N...EVEN SN FOR PRT
OF THE DAY. HI PKS MAY SEE WRM RA...MELTING SN FOR A SEGMENT OF THE
DAY. THAT WLD MEAN INCRG RUNOFF TO STREAMS OBSTRCTD WITH ICE DEBRIS
FROM LAST MONTHS THAW. ESF ISSUED FOR RUNOFF FROM HI PKS ...BUT
ESPCLY FOR  FOR STREAMS IN SE FA WHERE MORE RA IS EXPCTD AS MAIN MSTR
AREA PASSES.

.ALB...WNTR WX ADVY LATE TNGT AND TUE NYZ026>035-042-043-VTZ001>012-
       WNTR STRM WATCH TUE NYZ038>041-047>054-059-060-061-MAZ001-
            VTZ013-014-
       WNTR WX ADVY LATE TNGT AND TUE NYZ058-063>066-CTZ001-
       FLOOD WATCH TUE NYZ047-053-054-058>061-063>066-MAZ001-CTZ001-

WESTERGARD


NNNN

     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS71 KALY 011844
SFDALB

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
200 PM EST MON FEB 1 1999

.DISC...ETA WETTER THAN NGM/AVN. 12Z MDLS CLDR THAN OOZ OVR FA. ALL
MDLS HV DEEP WRM LYR ALFT THRU THE PRD. BUFKIT PROFILE SHWS SFC BASED
CLD POOL DPNG N OF CAP DIST DURG MID DAY. HIR PKS OF CTSKLS AND
ADRNDCKS MAY EXTND ABV FRZG LVL FOR MUCH OF THE PCPN PRD.

THUS...EXPCT EXTND PRD OF FRZG RA BGNG LATE TNGT THRU MUCH OF
TUE...ESPLY MHWK VLY AND CAP DIST. EVEN NGM HAS FRZG RA 10Z THRU 20Z.
SUBJECTIVE QPFS IN EXCESS OF .5 INCH SGGST A WATCH FOR TUE. N OF CAP
DIST...DPR CLD POOL MAY RSLT IN SLEET OR...FRTHR N...EVEN SN FOR PRT
OF THE DAY. HI PKS MAY SEE WRM RA...MELTING SN FOR A SEGMENT OF THE
DAY. THAT WLD MEAN INCRG RUNOFF TO STREAMS OBSTRCTD WITH ICE DEBRIS
FROM LAST MONTHS THAW. ESF ISSUED FOR RUNOFF FROM HI PKS ...BUT
ESPCLY FOR  FOR STREAMS IN SE FA WHERE MORE RA IS EXPCTD AS MAIN MSTR
AREA PASSES.

.ALB...WNTR WX ADVY LATE TNGT AND TUE NYZ026>035-042-043-VTZ001>012-
       WNTR STRM WATCH TUE NYZ038>041-047>054-059-060-061-MAZ001-
       WNTR WX ADVY LATE TNGT AND TUE NYZ058-063>066-CTZ001-
       FLOOD WATCH TUE NYZ047-053-054-058>061-063>066-MAZ001-CTZ001-


WESTERGARD


NNNN

     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 011824
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
115 PM EST MON FEB 1 1999

COORD WITH ALY.  SUGGEST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LATE TONITE AND
TUESDAY (XCP JUST TUES FOR NE VT).

TRANQUIL WX THRU EARLY TONIGHT...BUT SGFNT CHNGS THEREAFTER.  MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING WX FOR TUES...ALTHO THEY
DIGRESS ONCE AGAIN DURING LATER PERIODS.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE CONTINUES ACRS FA ATTM THANKS TO LARGE AREA OF HI
PRES BOTH SFC & ALF.  AXIS OF SFC RDG WL MOV EAST OF FA OVRNGT...BUT
SKIES WL RMN M/CLR LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO FALL BACK INTO
TEENS...WITH SINGLE NUMBERS IN DEEPER VLYS.

SHRTWV LIFTING NEWRD THRU OH VLY THIS EVEN WL MOV INTO ERN GRTLKS
OVRNGT...AND THEN INTO ST LWR VLY/SRN QUE DURING TUES...WEAKENING
WITH TIME.  LARGE SWATH OF MSTR INDICATED ON STLT PICS FROM NRN
GRTLKS ALL THE WAY SOUTH INTO CAROLINAS.  SFC OBS INDICATE THAT RAIN
CURRENTLY FALLING IN MOST OF THIS RGN...AND ITS ALL LIFTING NEWRD
TWRDS FA.  WITH ARRIVAL TIME OF PCPN EXPECTED TO BE BTWN 08Z-14Z
FROM SW TO NE ACRS FA...AND COLD AIR IN PLACE IN LLVLS... POTENTIAL
FOR ICING PROBLEMS EXISTS.  FRZG RAIN WL BE MAIN PTYPE TUES AM
(ALTHO THERE MAY BE SOME SLEET FOR A TIME...ESPEC IN NE VT).
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN LIKELY TO OCCUR FIRST IN ADRNDKS AND CHMPLN
VLY...BUT LLVL COLD AIR WL BE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE IN ST LWR VLY
AND ERN VT.  QPF DURING TUES EXPECTED TO BE ARND 1/4 INCH...WITH
SOME HIR AMTS PSBL SRN VT.  DOESNT'T LOOK TO BE ENOUGH TO MEET
WARNING CRITERIA...SO WOULD LEAN TWRDS ADVISORY.

FCST PROBLEMS CONTINUE FOR TUES NITE/WED.  INITIAL SHRTWV WILL HAVE
EXITED RGN BY THIS TIME.  NEXT DISTURBANCE HOWEVER...CURRENTLY MOVG
ACRS COLORADO...WL MOV RAPIDLY NEWRD FROM TN VLY TUE EVEN ACRS FA
LATE TUE NITE/EARLY WED.  MODELS DIFFER ON IMPACT OF THIS SYS ON FA.
ETA INDICATES BULK OF MSTR WL BE EAST OF FA...WHILE NGM/AVN MORE
GENEROUS WITH PCPN OVR BTV CWA (PROBABLY TOO GENEROUS).  WOULD FAVOR
CATEGORICAL POPS TUE NITE.  PTYPE RAIN IN CHMPLN VLY...RAIN OR FRZG
RAIN NE VT...RAIN OR FRZG RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW ST LWR VLY...AND
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ADRNDKS.

ON WEDNESDAY...BULK OF PCPN WL HAVE ENDED.  XPC CLDY SKIES WITH SCT
SNOW OR RAIN SHWRS.

TEMPS: WOULD GO BELOW FWC GUID TONITE.  MINS WL BE REACHED IN MANY
LOCATIONS BY ARND MIDNITE...WITH RISING TEMPS LATE TON.  WOULD GO AT
OR SLIGHTLY BLO GUIDANCE ON TUES...A BIT ABV GUIDANCE TUES
NITE...AND CLOSE TO FWC NUMBERS WED.

RJS



NNNN

     _________________________________________________________________


   This data is from the [1]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html


999
ASUS51 KALB 021103
SWRVT

VERMONT STATE HOURLY WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST TUE FEB 2 1999

CITY           SKY/WX   TEMP DEWPT RH  WIND    PRES    REMARKS

VTZ001>014-021200-

.... VERMONT ....

BURLINGTON     LGT RAIN  32   24   72  S8      30.10F  WCI 22
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    30   12   47  S12G20  30.21S  WCI 14
RUTLAND         N/A      32   27   82  SE21G29 30.13S  WCI 6
ST JOHNSBURY    N/A      12    7   80  CALM    30.21F
SPRINGFIELD    LGT SNOW  21   18   88  NW3     30.26R
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    20   11   68  VRB3    30.18S
BENNINGTON     LGT RAIN  38   31   76  VRB3    30.12F

.......... KEY ..........
    WCI - WIND CHILL INDEX
    VSB - VISIBILITY IN MILES
    HX  - HEAT INDEX
    FAIR- INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET, WITH NO
          SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY

$$



                        _LSC WEATHER CENTER FORECAST
                      5:00PM, Monday February 1, 1999
                    STUDENT METEOROLOGIST: Jeremy Davis_
       _** The latest forecast for Northeast & North Central Vermont**
       ** The area bounded by Waterbury, St. Johnsbury, and Newport**_


     _WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY


   Tonight: Clear skies early will yield to increasing cloudiness with a
   chance of some light mixed snow, sleet, and freezing rain developing
   by morning. Temperatures will drop off rapidly to the low teens and
   then slowly rise during the early morning hours. Winds becoming light
   southeast.

   Tuesday: Any mix will change to freezing rain which will result in
   dangerous driving conditions. The freezing rain will gradually change
   over to rain during the early evening. Temperatures will rise
   throughout the day reaching the lower 30's by evening. Winds will blow
   out of the southeast at 10 to 15 MPH.

   Tuesday Night: Any leftover freezing rain in protected valleys will
   change over to plain rain. Temperatures will remain nearly steady in
   the lower to middle 30's. Light southeast winds.

   Wednesday: Periods of rain early changing to scattered rain showers.
   Highs will reach the upper 30's.

                             Extended Forecast

   Thursday: A chance of rain or snow with highs in the 30's and lows in
   the 20's.

   Friday: Mostly cloudy with just a chance of a flurry. Highs in the mid
   30's with lows in the 20's.

   Saturday: Finally, some sun! Partly cloudy skies with mild
   temperatures near 40.

                            Forecast Discussion


   Despite today's wonderful sunshine, a potential moderate icing event
   is on our weather menu for Tuesday. An upper level low pressure system
   currently producing rain in the Ohio Valley will make a pass at our
   area tommorow. This storm will lift west of us during the day Tuesday
   resulting in freezing rain. Precipitation may begin as a period of
   mixed snow and sleet around the rush hour but will quickly change to
   freezing rain by mid-morning. This freezing rain will make travel very
   difficult during the day tommorow so be sure to drive with caution.
   Thankfully, the freezing rain will eventually change to just plain old
   rain by evening and will linger into Wednesday. By Thursday an Alberta
   Clipper may drop some rain or wet snow. As it looks right now, the
   start of the weekend looks to be partly cloudy and mild, so be sure to
   get outside during Saturday. Stay tuned for later updates on this
   potential moderate icing event tommorow.

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