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SKIVT-L  February 1999, Week 2

SKIVT-L February 1999, Week 2

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley's Ski Hut <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sun, 14 Feb 1999 06:50:03 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (283 lines)

999
FPUS51 KBTV 140828
ZFPVT

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
328 AM EST SUN FEB 14 1999

VTZ001-005-009-142000-
GRAND ISLE-CHITTENDEN-ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BURLINGTON...SOUTH BURLINGTON...WINOOSKI...
VERGENNES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
328 AM EST SUN FEB 14 1999

.TODAY...CHANCE OF AN EARLY FLURRY. OTHERWISE...BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY. HIGH NEAR 20. NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH.
.TONIGHT...CLEAR CALM AND COLD WITH SOME CLOUDS LATE. LOW NEAR ZERO.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY AND MILDER. HIGH IN THE LOWER 30S.

$$

VTZ002>004-006>008-010-142000-
FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST ALBANS...NEWPORT...BARRE...MONTPELIER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
328 AM EST SUN FEB 14 1999

.TODAY...SNOW ENDING EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY. HIGH 15 TO 20. NORTH WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.
.TONIGHT...CLEAR CALM AND COLD. LOW 5 TO 15 BELOW.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY AND MILDER. HIGH NEAR 25 TO 30.

$$

VTZ011>014-142000-
RUTLAND-WINDSOR-BENNINGTON-WINDHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...RUTLAND
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
328 AM EST SUN FEB 14 1999

.TODAY...CLEARING EARLY. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH NEAR 25.
NORTH WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR CALM AND COLD. LOWS ZERO TO 10 BELOW.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY AND MILDER. HIGH 30 TO 35.

$$





                          National Weather Service

     _________________________________________________________________

FXUS61 KBTV 140654
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
200 AM EST SUN FEB 14 1999

FAIRLY MUNDANE WEATHER IN STORE FOR FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH COLD ADVECTION PATTERN GIVING WAY TO A STAGNANT
SURFACE RIDGE. BLOCKING PATTERN CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE NORTH
ATLANTIC SLOWING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS BLOCK IS CAUSING THE 00 UTC MODELS TO HAVE DIFFICULTY
RESOLVING A VERY COLD ARCTIC ANTICYCLONE TRYING TO APPROACH FROM
HUDSON BAY LATER IN THE WEEK.

IN THE SHORT TERM...LIGHT SNOW STILL HANGING ON FROM THE ADIRONDACKS
INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AT THIS HOUR.
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT HAVE CLEARED AND BEGUN TO
RADIATE UNDER THE NEW SNOW COVER. IR IMAGERY SHOWING STRATUS NOT
DISSIPATING OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN VERMONT...AND IT MAY
TAKE UNTIL THE MIDDAY HOURS BEFORE UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW WEAKENS AND
SUNSHINE BREAKS OUT. CURRENT ZONES HAVE MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S
AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN COLD AIRMASS STILL BUILDING INTO
THE AREA. VERY COLD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME -20F MIN TEMPERATURES
LIKELY IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN VERMONT...-5F TO +5F IN THE
WARMER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. AS LONGWAVE RIDGE STARTS TO STRENGTHEN OVER
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA...AIR MASS WILL WARM WHILE A FEW WEAK IMPULSES
RIDE THROUGH THE RIDGE AND BRING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY WORDING PROBABLY THE BEST BET WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOME 5F TO 10F WARMER THAN ON SUNDAY.

TRENDING INTO 3 TO 5 DAY...MODELS COMING TO A MUDDLED CONSENSUS THAT
THE ARCTIC SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL CLIP NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS MOVING AWAY FROM PREVIOUS MRF RUNS WHICH HELD
A MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN JET STREAM. IF 12 UTC UKMET IS ON THE
RIGHT TRACK...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE PUSHED BACK INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ADVANCING INTO CALIFORNIA SLOWLY APPROACHES THE
REGION. SUGGEST REMOVING MENTION OF PRECIP FROM WEDNESDAY'S
EXTENDED FORECAST...AS SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS MAY SLOW THE ADVANCE OF
THE SYSTEM EVEN MORE.

ST. JEAN



NNNN

     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 140237
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
940 PM EST SAT FEB 13 1999

LAST IN SERIES OF SECONDARY COLD FRONTS AND WIND SHIFTS NOW
SHOWS SHARPLY ON DOPPLER SCREENS ALIGNED YSC-PLB-SLK. A NARROW
LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS MAY BECOME A LTL WIDER AND LAST FOR A FEW
HOURS IN FAVORED NWLY FLOW UPSLOPE ALONG THE NY/QUE BRDR
NW OF PLB...AND NW SLOPES OF GREEN MTNS IN NWRN VT. WORDING OF
CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS IN CURRENT ZONES IS STILL GOOD...AND MAY
HAVE TO BE AUGMENTED WITH A COUPLE NOWCASTS FOR UP TO AN INCH
OF SNOW IN FAVORED AREAS ALREADY MENTIONED. iT MIGHT STAY A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT ZONES OVERNIGHT...CONSIDERING THE CLOUD
COVER AND WINDS...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENUF REASON FOR ANY CHANGES
TO CURRENT ZONES. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE REVISION TO EXTENDED
FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED WITH NEXT PACKAGE IN ORDER TO
COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH 12Z UKMET AND SUBJECTIVE NCEP GUIDANCE.

HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD HAS BEEN VERY
SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD. THERE IS STILL A MAJORITY OF ENERGY IN THE
BASE OF THE TROF MOVING OFF THE CAROLINAS AND CLOSED...EVENTUALLY
CUT-OFF...UPR LOW STILL VERY LIKELY 35-40N AND 60-65W...ALL RELATED
TO THE ONE OF THE FIRST CLOSED BLOCKING HIGHS SEEN IN THE NERN
ATLANTIC THIS SEASON. THE SIGNIFICANCE IN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE A
MAINTENANCE OF NWLY FLOW AND BASICALLY DRY COLD CONDITIONS THRU EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS WARM ADVECTION PATN THAT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY GETS CUT OFF BY ARCTIC STREAM S/WV AND NOSE OF NEXT ARCTIC
SURFACE HIGH THAT BUCKLES SEWRD INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY
TUESDAY. SRN STREAM UPR TROF COMING INTO CA ATTM WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
TIME TO SLOW...SHARPEN...AND ORGANIZE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AS IT
APPROACHES THE BLOCKED AND STACKED UP SYSTEMS IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC
AND NERN NORTH AMERICA SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY.

BELL




NNNN

     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 131827
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
130 PM EST SAT FEB 13 1999

SEVERAL REPORTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN 1/2 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD
LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. STILL ANOTHER ROUND PER MODELS AND
UPSTREAM RADARS.

UPPER TROUGH CLEARS ST LAWRENCE VALLEY/N ADRNKS MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 06Z AND CONNECTICUT VALLEY 12Z. THIS IS
CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN EARLIER MODEL RUNS. AS A CONSEQUENCE...
CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT. THEREFORE
DO NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT ARGUMENT WITH MOS NUMBERS FOR TONIGHT
WHICH ARE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN CURRENT ZONE FORECASTS.

H8 RIDGE DOES NOT MAKE IT INTO WEST FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE DAY
SUNDAY AND EAST FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. DO NOT SEE ANY SHORT WAVES
IN NORTHWEST FLOW TO GIVE SNOW FOR SUNDAY...BUT SUNNY FORECAST IS
MUCH TOO OPTIMISTIC. WANING COLD AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING DVM
ACCOMPANIED BY DRIER AIR AND SO LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY.

WARM AIR COMING IN ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT. COULD BE SOME LAKE DEBRIS
CLOUDS FLOATING OVERHEAD AS FLOW TURNS MORE WEST/SOUTHWEST WITH
RIDGE AXIS GOING BY.

SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS FOR MONDAY AS WEAK CLIPPER MOVES INTO CENTRAL/
EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

DIGIORGI



NNNN

     _________________________________________________________________


   This data is from the [1]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html


999
ASUS51 KALB 141103
SWRVT

VERMONT STATE HOURLY WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SUN FEB 14 1999

CITY SKY/WX TEMP DEWPT RH WIND PRES REMARKS

VTZ001>014-141200-

.... VERMONT ....

BURLINGTON PTCLDY 9 2 73 N7 30.27R WCI -2
MONTPELIER CLOUDY 9 3 76 NW5 30.19R WCI 5
RUTLAND N/A 12 5 73 NW6 30.16R WCI 4
ST JOHNSBURY N/A 12 4 70 CALM 30.17R
SPRINGFIELD MOCLDY 18 8 64 VRB6 30.16R WCI 11
MORRISVILLE CLEAR 8 0 69 NW8 30.22R WCI -6
BENNINGTON CLOUDY 14 8 77 NW8 30.14R WCI 1

.......... KEY ..........
    WCI - WIND CHILL INDEX
    VSB - VISIBILITY IN MILES
    HX - HEAT INDEX
    FAIR- INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET, WITH NO
          SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY

$$



                        _LSC WEATHER CENTER FORECAST
                      10:00AM, Sunday February 14,1998
                     STUDENT METEOROLOGIST: David Bruce_
       _** The latest forecast for Northeast & North Central Vermont**
       ** The area bounded by Waterbury, St. Johnsbury, and Newport**_


   _
   Valentines Day: If your going out, make sure you dress warm as
   temperatures will struggle to reach the mid 20's under partly sunny
   skies. Winds will be out of the northwest at 5-15 mph, making it feel
   like or slightly below zero.

   Sunday night: Under high pressure skies will clear out and with light
   winds, temperatures will drop below zero. Tonights lows will range
   from -7 in Lyndonville to as cold as -20 in some of the valleys.

   Monday: The dry weather will remain in the area under partly sunny
   skies. Temperatures will be a bit warmer than yesterday, reaching into
   the lower 30's.

   Monday night: Partly cloudy conditions with lows not as cold as the
   past. Lows will range from 14 in West Burke to the low 20's near St.
   Johnsbury. Winds will be light.

                             Extended Forecast

   Tuesday: Mother Natures likes the sunny weather and thats what we will
   be having. Parly sunny skies with temperatures in the 30's.

   Wednesday: The sunny skies can not last forever. Skies will cloud up
   as a weak storm system moves across the United States. A few rain
   showers are possible. Highs will warm up into the low 40's.

   Thursday: Continued cloudy and wet, with rain showers possible ending
   as some snow showers. Highs will be in the upper 30's early, then
   falling throughout the day.

                            Forecast Discussion


   After a messy end to the weak, a pretty good stretch of dry weather
   and sunny skies will move into the area. High pressure from Canada
   will slide east and provide the region with fair conditions through
   Tuesday. By Wednesday, a weak storm system will enter the region with
   scattered showers ending as some snow showers by Thursday. So if you
   will be taking your valentine out today, it should be a great day to
   do so.

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