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EJCLASS  April 1999

EJCLASS April 1999

Subject:

Global Futures Bulletin #81

From:

"Institute for Global Futures Research (IGFR)" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Environmental Justice <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Wed, 7 Apr 1999 09:42:43 +0000

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (767 lines)

________________________________________________________
********************************************************
GLOBAL FUTURES BULLETIN  #81
---01 Apr, 1999---                                                    ISSN
1328-5157
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Institute for Global Futures Research (IGFR).
P.O. Box 263E, Earlville, QLD 4870, Australia.
E-mail: <[log in to unmask]>.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
This bulletin is for the use of IGFR members and GFB subscribers
only and is not to be re-posted.
________________________________________________________
********************************************************
*
*
INDEX
.       Kosovo in perspective
.       'Humanitarian intervention'
.       Kosovo background
.       Prevention
.       In defense of NATO
.       Balkans - where to from here ?
.       Cities that reduce resource use and waste
.       Avoiding the oil shock
.       Calendar
*
*
KOSOVO IN PERSPECTIVE
Professor Vojin Dimitrijevic of the Belgrade Centre for Human
Rights argues that the massive NATO air strikes have given
legitimacy to a state of emergency by an authoritarian regime and set
back prospects for democracy in Yugoslavia [1], and that only a
democratic transition provides the opportunity for stability and peace
in the Balkans.

'The air strikes erased in one night the results of ten years of hard
work of groups of courageous people in the non-governmental
organizations and in the democratic opposition, who have not tried to
'topple' anyone but to develop the institutions of civil society, to
promote liberal and civic values, to teach non-violent conflict
resolution.  The emerging democracy in Montenegro is in peril and
will be hard to maintain now' says Dimitrijevic.

The total number of refugees is now over 850,000, or 40% of
Kosovo's population, and continuing to grow.  More than 2,000
people have died in Kosovo, at least 500 of those Serbian.

Of the 15 nations on the Security Council, three opposed the military
intervention - Russia, China and Namibia.  Russia and China have
veto power (along with the US, UK and France).  While it could be
argued that air strikes were inappropriate, it is important to note that
China has an interest in pushing for non-interference in sovereign
matters, due to its own threat to integrity from breakaway movements
in Tibet and Xinjiang.  Russia is a longterm ally of the Serbs, and
was seeking to continue peace negotiations.  It could be argued that
the NATO powers broke off negotiations after presenting Milosevic
with an ultimatum they knew he would not accept.

Lewis MacKenzie [2] also suggests that the NATO action not only
broke international law by lacking authorisation from the Security
Council, but was also selective - otherwise NATO should also have
intervened to protect the Kurds in Turkey, Tibetans in China, East
Timorese in Indonesia, and Chechens in Russia, to name a few
examples.  Until recently the Serbs allowed TV cameras in Kosovo.
This would not be the case for anti-Kurd operations in Turkey (a
NATO member).

MacKenzie suggests the Serbs are out to claim northern Kosovo
where many monasteries and Serbia's heartland is, as well as mines
and other natural resources, and be prepared to give up southern
Kosovo which will possibly join Albania.

Samuel Huntington warns that in the eyes of much of the world, if
not most, the US is 'becoming the rogue superpower,' considered 'the
single greatest external threat to their societies.'  Realist
'international relations theory,' he argues, predicts that coalitions
may arise to counterbalance the rogue superpower [3].

Such a coalition could include Russia and China.

There is also evidence of some technical/military cooperation
between Yugoslavia and Iraq, supported by Russia (eg ground-to-air
defense systems).  However, Iraq has not made major provocations
during the NATO raids on Yugoslavia, as some had originally
expected, to test overstretched US military resources.

Michel Chossudovsky argues that the strategic interests of Germany
and the US laid the groundwork for the disintegration of the Former
Yugoslavia [4].

Radical economic reform as loan conditions of the IMF contributed to
a massive increase in unemployment and economic contraction,
which exacerbated social tensions and the ascendancy of nationalism,
xenophobia and racism.  Democratic institutions in Bosnia-
Herzegovina act as a rubber stamp while the real power, under the
Dayton Accords, lies in Washington, Bonn and Brussels [5].

However, one could argue that the deterioration of the Yugoslav
economy had much to do with the disintegration of the Soviet empire
(as in the case of Cuba).  While most of the republics of the former
Yugoslavia have become heavily indebted, failure of international
financial institutions to provide loans and foreign business to invest
would also have drawn criticism in the eyes of many.  One criticism
that could be made is that the wholesale dismantling of state
enterprise was excessive, serving narrow IMF orthodoxy and the
interests of transnational corporations.  A more gradual reform with
greater economic concessions may have helped avoid much of the
(costly and wasteful) trauma the region is now suffering [6].
*
[1] Dimitrijevic, Vojin   Belgrade Centre for Human Rights  26 Mar
1999
[2] MacKenzie, Lewis (retired major general who commanded UN
troops during siege of Sarajevo, Bosnia civil war 1992) 'Wrong
alliance punishing Serbs' The Vancouver Sun, 26 Mar 1999.
[3] Huntington, Samuel  Foreign Affairs  Mar 1999
[4] Chossudovsky, Michel  1996
http://groundwork.ucsd.edu/bosnia.html, see also Gervasi, Sean
'Germany, US and the Yugoslav Crisis', Covert Action Quarterly,
No. 43, Winter 1992-93. p65
[5] Chossudowsky  op cit.
[6] The disintegration of the Cuban economy was also severe, yet
without radical IMF economic reform.  Interestingly, economic
collapse in Cuba did not lead to social instability and conflict, did not
lead to an increase in the (current moderate) levels of political
repression and human rights violations, but has led to some economic
liberalisation.  On the otherhand, the risks of ethnic conflict in the
Former Yugoslavia have been long known, unlike the more
integrated Afro-Hispanic population of Cuba.
*
{2. peace and conflict resolution}
*
*
*
'HUMANITARIAN INTERVENTION'
While NATO has broken international law by failing to get Security
Council approval to launch an attack, NATO argues that it is merely
following the Universal Declaration of Human Rights which allows
for 'humanitarian intervention'.  But this right to intervene is based
on the 'good faith' of the proposed intervenor, ie their record for
respecting international law.  When Iran offered to mediate in
Bosnia, the proposal was ignored.  Chomsky asks 'is the Iranian
record of intervention and terror worse than that of the US?' [1]

The US record includes:
Colombia's 'drug war' (similar numbers of casualties, with refugees
  amounting to approx one million).  US arms and training.
Turkey, the largest importer of US arms in 1994 coinciding with
  most brutal Turkish offensive on Kurds.  One million refugees to
  unofficial Kurd capital of Diyarbakir 1990-94.
Laos, Plain of Jars - every year perhaps two thousand people are
  killed by 'bombies' [2], tiny anti-personnel weapons, far worse than
  land-mines, dropped by the US during the Vietnam war.  'Hundreds
  of millions' of these Honeywell devices are said to have been
  dropped.
Iraq, 'a very hard choice', Madeleine Albright commented on
  US TV in 1996 when asked for her reaction to the killing of
  500,000 Iraqi children in 5 years, but 'we think the price is worth
  it.'  Current estimates remain about 5,000 children killed a month,
  and a total of 1m Iraqis who have died as a result of the sanctions.
El Salvador, Nicaragua, Guatemala, Chile - US support (training and
  arms etc) for military dictatorships and death squads.

Other comparisons to the 2000 killed in Kosovo which led to the
NATO decision to strike [3]:
Algeria - 80,000 killed
Burma - gross human rights violations, genocide and ~500,000 killed
  since 1948.
Ethiopia-Eritrea war of 1999 - ~10,000 killed
Sudan - 1.5m killed since 1984
Approximately 100,000 people die per day as a result of lack of what
is regarded as a human right - access to safe water, and basic food,
medicine, clothes and shelter.

The UN Charter drew from the Kellogg-Briand Pact of 1928 which
outlawed war.  Since then the case of 'humanitarian intervention' has
been used to justify Japan's invasion of Manchuria, Mussolini's
invasion of Ethiopia, and Hitler's occupation of parts of
Czechoslovakia.

When Vietnam invaded Cambodia and put an end to the Pol Pot
genocide, one of the few examples, according to Chomsky, where the
plea of 'humanitarian intervention' was plausible since the UN
Charter was drawn up, the US accused the Vietnamese of violating
international law and backed a Chinese invasion followed by harsh
sanctions.

France had called for a UN Security Council resolution to authorize
deployment of NATO peacekeepers in Kosovo.  The US refused,
insisting on 'its stand that NATO should be able to act independently
of the United Nations,' State Department officials explained [4].

Leon Henkin also argues that there are strong pressures which are
eroding the prohibition on the use of force.  While there are countless
instances of human rights violations, the use of force as a solution
would only further erode international law and could be used 'by
almost any state on any other'.  He argues that human rights
violations must be remedied by peaceful means [5].

Chomsky continues '..the right of 'humanitarian intervention' is
likely to be more frequently invoked in coming years - maybe with
justification, maybe not - now that Cold War pretexts have lost their
efficacy.  In such an era, it may be worthwhile to pay attention to ...
the World Court, which explicitly ruled on this matter in a decision
rejected by the US, its essentials not even reported.' [6]
*
[1] Chomsky, Noam 'The Current Bombings' WILPF News, 28 Mar
1999.
[2] estimates of deaths range form several hundred per year to
10,000.  See Chomsky op cit
[3] Oberg, Jan  Transnational Foundation for Peace and Future
Research (TFF). Press Release #60, 24 Mar 1999.
[4] Chomsky op cit
[5] Chomsky op cit
[6] Henkin, Leon quoted in Chomsky op cit.
*
{2. peace and conflict resolution; 33. global conventions and
international law}
*
*
*
KOSOVO BACKGROUND
The Balkan Peninsula was occupied by the Turkish Ottoman empire
for ~500 years, since the Battle of Kosovo in 1389.  Serbia became
the first country to gain independence in 1878.  The boundaries of
Serbia, Kosovo and other Balkan States have moved back and forth
over the centuries.

Ethnic Albanians have been living in Kosovo for at least 600 years.
Today they comprise 90% of the estimated 2m population in Kosovo.
(Note - Editor unsure of how quickly Albanian/Muslim population
grew in recent years.  Italy made Kosovo a part of 'Greater Albania'
during WW2).

In March 1989, Milosevic revoked Kosovo's autonomous status and
imposed martial law in the region.  This resurgence of Serb
nationalism in turn gave rise to a non-violent protest movement
including strikes, boycotts and alternative institutions, by Kosovars to
recover their autonomy.  But with increasing Serb aggression, the
non-violent protest movement gave way to the rise of the Kosovo
Liberation Army (KLA), formerly seen by the West as a shady
terrorist organisation.
*
{2. peace and conflict resolution; 11. ethnic relations and
multicivilisations}
*
*
*
PREVENTION
The deterioration of civil order could have been avoided by
- less traumatic economic reform than that imposed on the former
Yugoslavia by the IMF starting in the late 1980s.
- the deployment of the full peace monitor contingent (2000
personnel) of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in
Europe (OSCE) as promised but not realised in 1998.  This number
could have been 5,000.  Eventually 1000 gradually arrived with
insufficient equipment, training and financial support.
- applying a total arms embargo on Serbia and Kosovo
- providing adequate human and financial resources into peaceful
resolution of the conflict as well as to strengthening democratic
institutions (at a fraction of the cost of the military campaign).
- initiating a dialogue between the Serb and Albanian communities
that live in Kosovo (rather than the KLA and Serbia)

The OSCE (54 members) has a budget ~0.1% that of NATO (19
members).

The military air strikes have already cost an estimated US$500m, and
are likely to cost well over US$2b.  Damage inflicted may also cost a
similar amount.  Then there are the costs associated with the loss of
human life, of assistance and resettlement of refugees, loss of
production etc.  If a fraction of this money had been invested in
strengthening both the economy and democratic institutions to
counter the rise of ultra-nationalism and xenophobia, we may well
have been able to negotiate a certain autonomy for Kosovo and avoid
the rise of the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA), the subsequent
crackdown by Serb forces, and subsequent crackdown by NATO
forces.

Jan Oberg asserts that '..in no other conflict has there been so many
early warnings and so little preventive diplomacy.  Kosovo's
catastrophe was among the most predictable of all.  It is intellectual
nonsense that 'everything else has been tried and NATO bombings
was the only option left.''

The United Nations is the most important humanitarian organisation
although it has been largely ignored in negotiations to find a
settlement.  Expenditure by the Pentagon is said to be 20 times that of
the entire budget of the United Nations [1].


Kosovo refugees (mainly Muslim / ethnic Albanian) are now
estimated at 850,000 (with another potential 1 million refugees).
This must be added to the total refugee numbers in former
Yugoslavia which include 650,000 Serb refugees who have fled from
Croatia, Bosnia and elsewhere [2].
*
[1] Oberg, Jan  Transnational Foundation for Peace and Future
Research (TFF). Press Release #60, 24 Mar 1999.
[2] Oberg op cit
*
{2. peace and conflict resolution}
*
*
*
IN DEFENSE OF NATO
Did the NATO powers stumble into this no-win situation ?  Did they
misjudge the response of the Serb population ?

Was it important for NATO to demonstrate its raison d'etre after 50
years in existence on 04 Apr 1999 (with the upcoming special NATO
Summit on April 24), now that the Cold War (its original mandate)
has finished ?

Did NATO need to prove it is an important actor in the 'Charter for a
Cooperative European Security for the 21 Century' now under
consideration at the Security Forum of the Organisation for Security
and Cooperation in Europe (Vienna) - to be finalised in Istanbul in
Nov 1999 ?

Some arguments that could be made in defense of the US and NATO
action:

The US and/or NATO cannot rush to every cause.  It must pick its
fights carefully, having been burnt in Somalia (and Vietnam).

The Kurdish problem is problematic partly because the Kurdish
community is deeply divided (and because Turkey is strategically
important and necessary to maintain as an ally for reasons that
transcend the Kurdish fight for a homeland).

Conflict in Europe can have global implications, unlike, perhaps, the
civil war in the Sudan or the violent repression in Burma.  Stability
in the developed world is important as it is the keystone of world
order.  The response of the NATO powers to the Bosnian crisis was
ad hoc and largely mismanaged.  NATO commitment to resolving
the Kosovo crisis can be seen as a spin-off of their commitment to
Bosnia.  The air strikes campaign is an attempt to be more decisive.

The NATO powers could not have taken preventative action simply
because the are countless potential arenas of conflict, and
preventative action for all of these would be costly and set
unworkable precedents.  In Europe alone one could identify potential
conflicts between Greece and Turkey, Macedonia and Greece, in
Cyprus, between UK and Spain over Gibraltar, racial tensions in
Germany and France, tensions over fishing rights and agricultural
subsidies, tensions in the Basque and Catalan regions of Spain etc.

There is evidence to suggest that NATO was not a reluctant actor,
and that a number of media reports, including at least one 'massacre'
which may have actually been KLA soldiers killed in combat and
then repositioned to appear as a massacre, have been fabricated or
sensationalised (again, compare this to media coverage of conflict
elsewhere in the world.  Note: this is not to deny the many massacres
and atrocities that have been committed in the region) [1].

Was the NATO ultimatum to Milosevic one that they knew he would
have to reject ?  Could NATO have chosen to have engaged in war to
- advance German and US economic interests in Yugoslavia ?
- demonstrate that NATO needs to continue to exist in order to
defend peace and stability in the region.
- as an arms exposition to once again test and demonstrate the
superiority of US (and to a lesser extent EU) weapons over Russian
technology, and promote US arms exports.
- other ulterior motive
- prevent Serbia driving out the majority of Kosovar Albanians
through a campaign of terror, (in order to secure sovereignty over
Kosovo and a coastline for Serbia).

The views of NGOs may be said to have some influence in the UN
and to a lesser extent the World Bank.  The WTO and IMF are also
preparing themselves to deal with the lobby power of broad coalitions
of NGOs (also known as GrassRoots Organisations, or 'GRO's).
NATO, however, has thus far remained insulated from such contact.
While the Gulf War, at least, had the endorsement of the UN Security
Council, the Kosovo-Serbia bombardment does not.  It is possible that
this NATO action will be widely regarded as a blunder in retrospect,
and may mark the beginning of significant civil society interest and
pressure on the future policy and actions of NATO.
*
[1] North, Don  'Irony at Racak: Tainted U.S. Diplomat Condemns
Massacre'  http://www.consortiumnews.com/.  The probable
fabrication of the Racak massacre was covered in Le Figaro and other
German and French press.
*
{2. peace and conflict resolution}
*
*
*
BALKANS - WHERE TO FROM HERE ?
Eugene Carroll argues that Russia should now be invited to be a
mediator in new peace talks following a UN Security Council call for
a cease-fire [1].

There could be a return to the plan of providing OSCE monitors to
oversee repatriation of refugees, but without NATO groundtroops in
Serbia.

Perhaps some of the northern area of Kosovo could become part of
Serbia while the rest could become an independent country after a
period of transition.
*
[1] Carroll, Eugene  Center for Defense Information, The Progressive
Response  2 Apr 1999   Vol. 3, No. 12
*
{2. peace and conflict resolution}
*
*
*
CITIES THAT REDUCE RESOURCE USE AND WASTE
Peter Newman [1]

On Ted Trainer's anti-growth arguments, GFB #80 [2] I can only say
that he is right about the world's need to change massively from its
present consumption patterns, but he is wrong if he thinks this is
possible without a change in the economy, technology and social
patterns of settlements, all of which can mean 'growth' or 'progress'.

'Growth' and 'progress' are very human words.  That they can occur
and not be associated with increased resource use or greater
environmental impact, is the nature of sustainable development.  My
area is to see what this means for settlements and thus our new book
'Sustainability and Cities' [3] tries to outline how we can design
cities that reduce their resource use and wastes but increase their
livability.  We show that there are differences in energy use by a
factor of 10 or more if you look at density and transit seriously (and
the denser, more transit-oriented cities are economically more
efficient as well).

Another matter we look at is the innovations that are occurring in
urban ecology (the kinds of local community-scale efforts in
recycling, energy efficiency, permaculture etc which Ted is keen to
promote).  We found in our global survey that the majority of these
efforts that are working are based around community commitments
rather than just technical fixes.  Further, the majority of these are in
inner areas where communities exist due to the structure of the urban
form.  So many of the projects in low density outer suburbs are just
projects on paper, and because the urban form makes face-to-face
community so difficult, they rarely get started.

Our fundamental hypothesis is that unless a city is overcoming
automobile dependence, then it is not being serious about
sustainability.  In the US I found there was a lot of talk about 'smart
growth' and this tended to equate with what I was saying about
sustainability.  I prefer 'sustainability' as it is a more global word that
has come out of the politics of what development should and should
not mean.  I think it is a pity Ted cannot see that it is a first step in
the long haul towards largescale global change; we can never make
such a change overnight just through lifestyle change.  Our cities are
a microcosm of the changes that are needed and are a better place to
start than trying to overhaul the global economic system.

The other key comment was from John McLaughlin about the IT side
of cities GFB#80 [4].  Again this is a major part of our book and we
do present quite a lot of data.  The data can, however, only be
suggestive of my hypothesis that IT is bringing our cities back in
rather than dispersing them.  The response that IT can mean
dispersal is usually from those who have chosen this lifestyle and has
mostly been an American phenomenon.  I can understand why people
have taken flight from US inner cities due to the crime and lack of
options for schooling.  However this process has not really happened
in Europe, Australia, New Zealand, Canada or in Third World cities.
The social problems of the inner city were not allowed to develop as
they did in the US and now the process of reurbanisation is such that
the wealthy now live in central and inner areas and the poor are
increasingly on the urban fringe.  Detailed data on Australian cities
shows that the wealthy in the inner areas are part of the IT global
economy, the 'symbolic analysts', those who work in 'producer
services'.  In our book I suggest this may be due to the way these
areas were designed for face-to-face contact which is needed still in
critical phases of any project development.

We also speculate that the reurbanisation process would happen in
US cities as soon as the inner area problems are solved.  This is now
happening very rapidly as outlined by Gratz in her new book 'Cities
Back From the Edge'.  It still has a way to go to catch up to other
global cities but I see no reason why it will not continue to grow; this
is a process I am happy to say is 'growth' even though it means
reductions in energy use.  It is also good for the economy and good
for communities so I am happy to say it is a more sustainable kind of
development, or in the US it is 'smart growth'!
*
[1] Professor Peter Newman is Director of the Institute for Science
and Technology Policy, Murdoch University, Australia.
http://wwwistp.murdoch.edu.au
[2] Trainer, Ted   'Smart growth'  Global Futures Bulletin #80, 15
Mar 1999.
[3] 'Sustainability and Cities: Overcoming Automobile Dependence'
Peter Newman and Jeffrey Kenworthy   (Nov 1998).  Available from
the Institute for Global Futures Research: e-mail <[log in to unmask]>
for prices and publication request form.
[4] McLaughlin, John   'Impact of the Net on urban
planning/transport' Global Futures Bulletin #80, 15 Mar 1999.
*
{18. urban development; 32. cyberspace revolution; 40. community
development}
*
*
*
AVOIDING THE OIL SHOCK
Thomas J Stubbing [1]

According to projections of peaking oil production, the gap between
oil supply and demand will give rise to serious trouble around 2012
[2].  We must prepare now to avoid shocks in the coming decades.

'The solar energy reaching the earth each day is more than the total
energy value of crude oil reserves, past, present and future.  Biomass
in the form of plants and trees captures a large amount of this energy
through the photosynthetic process and stores it as chemical bonds
between the carbon, hydrogen and oxygen atoms that make up the
carbohydrate plant material.  In effect, biomass is solar energy stored
in a chemical form.' [3]

Because biomass has a high moisture content, it needs to be dried to
enhance its usefulness as a renewable fuel which is where energy-
efficient airless, i.e. superheated steam drying technology can assist
its exploitation.

Biomass
It has been estimated that if 20-30% of Europe's pasture were
devoted to biomass (eg fast-growing trees such as willow or poplar),
it would be able to produce enough bioenergy and biochemicals to
provide all that Europe currently consumes in fossil fuels.  Given that
much agricultural land has been taken out of production in Europe
(subsidy for 15% set aside in EU ?) and North America, to avoid
over-production of agricultural products (and is increasing, at least in
the US), it would seem worthwhile turning it over to biomass energy
production.

Energy from strong sunlight in the tropics is equivalent to 2,000 dry
tonnes of biomass/ha/an.  In theory 10% of this can be captured
through photosynthesis.  In practice, fast-growing eucalypts can
produce 1% (ie 20 tonnes/ha/an) while bamboo could produce up to
4% (80 tonnes/ha/an). [4]

Airless Drying Technology [4]
Drying processes account for ~20% of industrial energy consumption,
or ~7.2% of total energy consumption [5] .  Airless Drying
Technology can reduce this by 50%, ie a saving of 3.6% of total
energy consumption which is more than all current hydropower
(~2.4%), and similarly reduce the energy requirement for drying
biomass.

Airless Drying Technology avoids the energy-wasteful heating of an
air through-flow typical of current drying processes and enables
much of the thus reduced energy input to be re-used, for example for
process water heating.
*
[1] Thomas Stubbing, Heat-Win Ltd, promoting Airless Drying
Technology.
[2] Peak oil production: 1998 - Campbell, 2005 - Duncan  Global
Futures Bulletin #55/#56 'More on Assessing Impending Oil Shock';
2005-2015 - Mackenzie  Global Futures Bulletin #49 'Energy
Perspectives' 01 Dec 1997.
[3] Scott, Kenneth 'Convertech  -  An Economic Approach to
Biomass' Convertech Group, New Zealand
<[log in to unmask]>.
[4] Fielden, Derrick (Commonwealth Development Corporation)
'Renewable Energy World'  Mar 1999
[5] <http://www.dryers-airless.mcmail.com>
[6] Industry consumes ~36% of all coal, oil, gas and electricity
combined, worldwide,  (based on IEA figures at
<http://www.iea.org/stats/files/keystats/stats/p_0303.htm>)
*
{4. energy}
*
*
*
CALENDAR

22 April 1999  Earth Day

24 April 1999  NATO Summit in Washington DC.  Created in 1949,
NATO turns 50 in 1999.

24 April 1999 various actions by peace activists at NATO nuclear
bases in Europe and at NATO Summit in Washington.

27-28 April 1999 Conference 'From the MAI to the Millennium
Round: Setting a Different Agenda for Frameworks on Investment
and Trade' European Parliament.  Public welcome.
Registration: Gaby Kuppers <[log in to unmask]>

7-8 May 1999, 'Congress on the MAI', Basel, Switzerland

10-16 May 1999  Hague Appeal for Peace, International Peace
Conference, The Hague, Holland.
Web: www.haguepeace.org; E-mail: <[log in to unmask]>

15-30 May 1999 Peace March 2000 for Nuclear Disarmament, from
The Hague to Brussels    http://www.motherearth.org/

22 May - 22 June InterContinental Caravan (ICC) organised by
Peoples' Global Action with up to 400 people from India plus 100
representatives from movements from other countries
e-mail: <[log in to unmask]>    http://stad.dsl.nl/~caravan/

23 May - 02 June    Bicycle caravan 'Money or Life' from
Berlin/Dresden via Hannover (World Exposition 2000) to Cologne,
and from Geneva via Basle to Cologne
e-mail: <[log in to unmask]>

29 May 1999 European Marches against Unemployment, Exclusion
and Racism, Cologne    e-mail: <[log in to unmask]>
http://home.link-m.de/ggoetz/eurom/aktion99.htm

29 May - 02 June 1999 EU Alternative Summit - alternative
economic and employment policy, education, women, environment,
anti-nuclear movement, etc.

3-4 June 1999 EU Summit Cologne

3-6 June 1999 International Women's Camp, Cologne

18 June 1999 International Action Day
http://www.gn.apc.org/rts/
discussion list: e-mail <[log in to unmask]>

18-20 June 1999  G7 Summit, Cologne
http://www.bundesregierung.de

19 June 1999 G7 Summit protest and Human Chain to cancel debt of
the poorest countries.  E-mail: <[log in to unmask]>
*
*
________________________________________________________
********************************************************
The Global Futures Bulletin is produced by the Institute for Global
Futures Research (IGFR) twice monthly.  Readers are welcome to
submit material such as succinct letters, articles and other useful
information.  Indicate whether you would like your name attached to
the submitted material.  All communications should be directed to the
Editor, e-mail <[log in to unmask]>.  Copyright (c) 1998 Institute for
Global Futures Research (IGFR).  All rights reserved.
________________________________________________________
********************************************************
********************************************************
........................PUBLICATIONS OF THE MONTH..........................
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'Millennium - Rendezvous with the Future'  (1998)  166 pages
Eds. Carlos Hernandez and Rashmi Mayur

Includes essays by Alvin Toffler on the psychology of the future,
Lester R. Brown on the urgent global need to raise grain yields,
Maurice F. Strong on the passage from Rio, and Hazel Henderson on
social capital and economic development.

AUD$29 inc post, US$14 inc post, UKPnd 10 inc post.
Add US$3 for post for orders outside Australia, US/Canada or UK.
********************************************************
'The Global Commons: an Introduction'  (1998)
Susan J Buck
240 pages tables, figures, glossary, index.

Vast areas of valuable resources unfettered by legal rights have, for
centuries, been the central target of human exploitation and
appropriation.  The global commons:
- Antarctica,
- the high seas and deep seabed minerals,

- the atmosphere, and
- space
...have remained exceptions only because access has been difficult or
impossible, and the technology for successful extraction has been
lacking.  New technologies that facilitate access means that
management regimes are needed to guide human use of these
important resource domains.

Includes historical underpinnings of international law, examines the
stakeholders involved, and discusses current policy and problems
associated with it.  Applies key analytical concepts drawn from
institutional analysis and regime theory to examine how legal and
political concerns have affected the evolution of management regimes
for the global commons.  Includes in-depth case studies of each of the
four regimes.

AUD$55 inc post, US$29 inc post, UKPnd 23 inc post.
Add US$3 for post for orders outside Australia, US/Canada or UK.
*******************************************************
'Earth Summit II: Outcomes and Analysis' (1998) 192 pages
Derek Osborn and Tom Bigg

Foreword by Tony Blair.

In June 1997, heads of government and senior representatives from
over 130 countries met in New York to consider what progress had
been made since the first Earth Summit in 1992, and to decide upon
priorities for the future.  The book presents the principal official
documents agreed at the Summit alongside an authoritative analysis
of where progress is and is not being made, the reasons for this, and
the priorities of the parties involved.

Proposes a number of original ideas on how to ensure effective
preparations for the 10-year review that will take place in 2002,
seeing that the 5-year review in 1997 had little impact.

Derek Osborn is Chair of the United Nations Environment and
Development UK Committee, Chair of the European Environmental
Agency and a member of the board of the UK Environmental
Agency.  He co-chaired the 1997 Commission for Sustainable
Development (CSD) Intersessional Meeting preparing for Earth
Summit II.

Tom Bigg has worked for UNED-UK since its creation in 1993,
focusing particularly on the work of the CSD.

AUD$49 inc post, US$33 inc post, UKPnd 19 inc post.
Add US$3 for post for orders outside Australia, US/Canada or UK.
********************************************************
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