236
FPUS51 KBTV 010758
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
356 AM EDT THU JUL 1 1999

NYZ028-035-VTZ001-002-005-009-011500-
ADDISON-CHITTENDEN-E ESSEX NY-FRANKLIN VT-GRAND ISLE-NE CLINTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BURLINGTON...MIDDLEBURY...PLATTSBURGH...
ST. ALBANS
356 AM EDT THU JUL 1 1999

.TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY EARLY...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS.  HIGH IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH.
.TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY...DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT.
LOW 65 TO 70.  BECOMING BREEZY WITH SOUTH WIND AT 15 TO 25 MPH.
CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  BECOMING WINDY WITH A HIGH IN
THE LOWER 80S.  CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.  LOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY.  HIGH AROUND 80.
.THE FOURTH OF JULY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  LOW 60
TO 70.  HIGH 80 TO 90.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY.  LOW IN THE 50S.  HIGH IN THE 80S.

$$

VTZ003-004-006>008-011500-
CALEDONIA-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTPELIER...NEWPORT...ST. JOHNSBURY
356 AM EDT THU JUL 1 1999

.TODAY...INCREASING CLOUDS.  HIGH IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.  SOUTH
WIND AT 5 TO 15 MPH.
.TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY...DEVELOPING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  LOW IN THE 60S.  SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.  CHANCE OF RAIN
70 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  BREEZY WITH A HIGH IN THE
LOWER 80S.  CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.  LOW IN THE 50S.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY.  HIGH 75 TO 80.
.THE FOURTH OF JULY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  LOW 60
TO 70.  HIGH 80 TO 90.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY.  LOW IN THE 50S.  HIGH IN THE 80S.

$$

VTZ010>012-011500-
ORANGE-RUTLAND-WINDSOR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD
356 AM EDT THU JUL 1 1999

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.
HIGH IN THE LOWER 80S.  SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.
.TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BY MIDNIGHT.  LOW IN THE
60S.  BREEZY SOUTH WIND AT 15 TO 25 MPH.  CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  CONTINUED BREEZY WITH A HIGH IN
THE LOWER 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.  LOW IN THE 50S.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY.  HIGH AROUND 80.
.THE FOURTH OF JULY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  LOW 60
TO 70.  HIGH 80 TO 90.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY.  LOW IN THE 50S.  HIGH IN THE 80S.

$$

NYZ026-027-011500-
N FRANKLIN NY-N ST LAWRENCE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MALONE...MASSENA
356 AM EDT THU JUL 1 1999

.TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY EARLY...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS.  HIGH IN THE
MID 80S.  SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH.
.TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.  LOW 65 TO 70.
BECOMING BREEZY WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND AT 15 TO 25 MPH.  CHANCE OF
RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ENDING LATE IN THE DAY.
BECOMING WINDY WITH A HIGH AROUND 80.  CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100
PERCENT.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.  LOW 55 TO 60.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY.  HIGH AROUND 80.
.THE FOURTH OF JULY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  LOW 60
TO 70.  HIGH 80 TO 90.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY.  LOW IN THE 50S.  HIGH IN THE 80S.

$$

NYZ029>031-034-011500-
S FRANKLIN NY-S ST LAWRENCE-SW CLINTON-W ESSEX NY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LAKE PLACID
356 AM EDT THU JUL 1 1999

.TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY EARLY...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS.  HIGH IN THE
LOWER 80S.  SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.
.TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.  LOW IN THE 60S.
BECOMING BREEZY WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND AT 15 TO 25 MPH.  CHANCE OF
RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ENDING LATE IN THE DAY.
BECOMING WINDY WITH A HIGH OF 75 TO 80.  CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100
PERCENT.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.  LOW IN THE 50S.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY.  HIGH 75 TO 80.
.THE FOURTH OF JULY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  LOW 60
TO 70.  HIGH 80 TO 90.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY.  LOW IN THE 50S.  HIGH IN THE 80S.

$$

EVENSON





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   Click for - [2]FREE Automatic Email of weather alerts directly to you
             available HERE using live EMWIN data broadcasts.

     _________________________________________________________________

FXUS61 KBTV 010740
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
338 AM EDT THU JUL 1 1999

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FORECAST AREA IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS
WITH BAND OF MOISTURE...TIED TO THE TROPICS...RUNNING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WISCONSIN.
AREA OF RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES EXISTS IN BETWEEN AND MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD HAVE A MOSTLY SUNNY START BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN
TO FILL IN.  CLOUD DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE A FUNCTION OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT...THANKS FOR THE TIP ALBANY.  EXAMINATION OF 305K AND 310K
ISENTROPIC SURFACES INDICATES SOME LIFT TO OCCUR THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  LIFT HOWEVER IS NOT REAL STRONG GIVEN
THE FLOW IS NOT QUITE PERPENDICULAR TO THE PRESSURE FIELD.  THUS
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL ONLY MENTION INCREASING
CLOUDS.  ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS...AREA CLOSE ENOUGH TO
MOISTURE AXIS DISCUSSED EARLIER...TO WARRANT A CONTINUED CHANCE
MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN.  WAS CONCERNED EARLIER OVER THE ETA/S
ATTEMPT AT GENERATING CONVECTION WITH NO REAL SIGNALS OF INSTABILITY
AND FORCING...WHICH IS MORE ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST.  THUS HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS IDEA.  WITH 850 MB THERMAL
RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER MOST AREAS.  THIS PUTS HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS.

STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT
AND FORECAST AREA SHOULD THEN BE LEFT IN WARM SECTOR DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE EVENING.  NEXT PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL SHOULD
THEN COME WITH THE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST.  THUS
WILL DELAY TIMING OF PRECIPITATION A BIT ACROSS VERMONT AS ACTIVITY
NOT EXPECTED UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.  SURFACE
GRADIENT TO INCREASE AND MOST AREAS SHOULD START EXPERIENCING BREEZY
CONDITIONS.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY.  COMBINATION OF DYNAMIC CONTRIBUTIONS AND COLD FRONT SHOULD
HELP PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AND GOING FORECAST HAS THIS WELL COVERED.
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED AS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE FROM DESTABILIZING
SIGNIFICANTLY. COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH REMAINS
NORTH OF THE BORDER AND WARMER AIR ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.  THIS APPEARS TO BE REASON FOR THE LIMITED INSTABILITY.  ON
THE OTHER HAND...NGM HAS A VERY GOOD EXAMPLE OF THE SATURATED DRY
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE PROBLEM WHICH LEADS TO ERRONEOUS VALUES OF
INSTABILITY.  IN OUR CASE...THIS RESULTS IN CAPE VALUES AROUND 3000
J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES TO MINUS 8.  SINCE THE SATURATED DRY
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE IS NOT METEOROLOGICALLY SOUND IN THIS TYPE OF
SITUATION...DO NOT EXPECT INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP OF THIS
MAGNITUDE.  THE OTHER ELEMENT ON FRIDAY WILL BE THE STRENGTH OF THE
SURFACE WINDS. COMBINATION OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...STRONG WIND
FIELDS ALOFT...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM NEAR THE SURFACE TO 600 MB
SUGGESTS PLENTY OF MIXING TO OCCUR AND ALLOW FOR WINDY CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.  ONCE
AGAIN GOING FORECAST HAS THIS WELL COVERED.

WORK ZONES IN ALBADMBTV

EVENSON

.BTV...NONE.





     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 010131
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
930 PM EDT WED JUN 30 1999

HI CLDS STREAKING ACRS FA ATTM.  THESE LOOK LIKE THEY WL MV NE OF
AREA IN A FEW HRS WITH THINNER CI LEFTOVR.  WL GO PTCLDY ALL ZNS
OVRNGT.

WL RAISE TEMPS IN A FEW ZNS A BIT BASED ON CLDS/CURRENT TEMPS AND
DWPTS.

MCGILL
.BTV...NONE.





     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 301856
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 PM EDT WED JUN 30 1999

DRY WEATHER TO HANG ON ANOTHER 18 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE MOISTURE BAND
PUSHES BACK NORTHWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT
MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK NEARER THE STRONGER
FLOW ALOFT.  IN SOUTHERN VERMONT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH AS MARINE AIR SURGES BACK INTO THE REGION.  MIN
TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID 50S
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN VERMONT.  SHOULD
BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR WARMER THICKNESSES TO BE
REALIZED...MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

MODELS DIVERGE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AVN DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE
AND SPEEDING IT FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST THAN THE ETA/NGM.  A
DEEPENING SYSTEM NORMALLY WOULD IMPLY THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD BE
SLOWING DOWN...SO WILL DISCARD THE AVN'S PLACEMENT OF FEATURES.
THE ETA BRINGS THE SURFACE LOW INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE IN THE WARM SECTOR PRECIP WILL ACCOMPANY THE
WARM ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA.
HUMID AND QUITE WARM WITH MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY COULD BE VERY INTERESTING WITH 50 KTS OF 1000-500 MB SHEAR
ACCOMPANYING 1.5 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA.  CONSIDERABLE DYNAMICS
PRESENT FOR CATEGORICAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  WITH DRIER AIR
ALOFT MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...EXPECT ENOUGH
BREAKS OF SUN FOR MAX TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER
80S.

3 TO 5 DAY...MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFICULTY TIMING
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MRF/ECMWF/SEF HAVE THE UPPER JET ALONG 40-45N
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE THE UKMET KEEPS THE JET--AND
PRECIPITATION--FARTHER NORTH.  CURRENT RUNS ARE SUGGESTING
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ON
SATURDAY AND MONDAY.  FOR NOW WILL WORD SATURDAY AND MONDAY MORE
OPTIMISTICALLY...BUT TIMING IS CERTAINLY SUSPECT SINCE CONFIDENCE IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAINS LOW.  IN ANY CASE...LOW AMPLITUDE OF FLOW
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

ST. JEAN

.BTV...NONE.





     _________________________________________________________________


   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/emwin/emwinnoaa.htm
   2. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/emwin/winven.htm
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html


071
ASUS51 KALB 011003
SWRVT

VERMONT STATE HOURLY WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU JUL 1 1999

CITY           SKY/WX   TEMP DEWPT RH  WIND    PRES    REMARKS

VTZ001>014-011100-

.... VERMONT ....

BURLINGTON     PTCLDY    61   56   84  CALM    30.05S
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    59   57   93  CALM    30.13S
RUTLAND         N/A      61   57   87  CALM    30.07S
ST JOHNSBURY    N/A      59   56   90  CALM    30.10R
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    62   61   97  CALM    30.10S
MORRISVILLE    PTCLDY    56   54   93  CALM    30.10S
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    65   63   93  CALM    30.07R

.......... KEY ..........
    WCI - WIND CHILL INDEX
    VSB - VISIBILITY IN MILES
    HX  - HEAT INDEX
    FAIR- INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET, WITH NO
          SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY

$$



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