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COMMUNET Home

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COMMUNET  August 1999, Week 5

COMMUNET August 1999, Week 5

Subject:

Can you make the Stock Market decline for the 'wrong reason'?: Revisited, Yet Again

From:

Curtiss Priest <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Community and Civic Network discussion list <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sun, 29 Aug 1999 12:03:29 -0700

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (285 lines)

Please note that this transmission conforms to The Digital Millenium
                 Copyright Act of 1998 (see below)

                      W. Curtiss Priest, Ph.D.
             Center for Information, Technology & Society
              466 Pleasant Street Melrose, MA  02176
   E-mail: [log in to unmask], Voice: 781-662-4044, FAX: 781-662-6882

              This document may be distributed freely

                            August 29, 1999

                         An Open Discussion
              with Government, Foundations, Non-profits
                       and Grassroots Efforts

                          Public Issue #37:

                           CITS DEBT WATCH

     "Can you make the Stock Market decline for the 'wrong reason'?:
                           Revisited, Yet Again" (*)


                           ***************

            Commentary by Dr. W. Curtiss Priest, Director:

Sung Won Sohn, chief economist with Wells Fargo & Co. says:

    "Until and when we can reduce some of that unwarranted
     enthusiasm in the stock market we are not going to be
     able to slow consumer spending for a soft landing."
     [Source: below]

Some of you are probably saying "yes, yes we've heard this
all before -- things are just great -- except for these naysayers."

Let us see what Greenspan is saying:

    "We no longer have the luxury to look primarily to the flow
     of goods and services, as conventionally estimated," when
     evaluating broad economic conditions.
     [Source: below]

You can see why the journalist, Ms. Love, might have turned to Ms.
Sohn for what Greenspan meant by that.

In a most compelling book by H.G. Wells, _Babes in the Darking
Wood_, of 1938, Wells has one of his characters explaining why
a U.S. proponent of a new school of psychiatry, used obscure
language.  The reason was to not arouse those who would take
offense with the new view, but to talk to "other tall people."
Greenspan was taught a strong lesson when he used more
plain-speak -- "irrational exuberance" -- for which he was
sorely trounced by the Senate Banking Committee.

I have personally read and re-read Greenspan's statement to
understand what he is saying.  And based on this statement, alone,
I believe this statement is well-nigh impenetrable.

Let's look at another by Greenspan:

    "There are important -- but extremely difficult -- questions
     surrounding the behavior of asset prices and the
     implications of this behavior for the decisions of
     households and businesses."

The behavior of what and what implications?

But finally he reveals what he is talking about -- the wealth
effect of stock market prices -- when he says:

    "To anticipate a bubble about to burst requires the forecast
     of a plunge in the prices of assets previously set by
     the judgements of millions of investors, many of whom
     are highly knowledgeable."

Let's try and rephrase what Greenspan has said, in more common
language:

     The rosy economy is due to consumers spending well
     beyond their means.

     The stock market both reflects this overspending, and

     reflects the consumer felt wealth of the market also causes
     more overspending.

     Finally, though these investors may be bright, they
     can be fooled by the apparent robustness in the sales
     of goods and services -- trapping themselves in a bubble.

But, either way, does anyone really listen to what he says?

Meanwhile, the cover of _Wired_ this month asks:

    The DOW at 50,000 ?

Someone's right, and someone's wrong.  Take a guess?

And in CITS DEBT WATCH 35 1/2 we demonstrated that almost all
growth in the U.S. economy for the last 10 years has been based
on debt-financed consumption by draining equity out of consumer's
homes.  And we aren't sure that Greenspan fully grasps this fact
as we have yet to see it mentioned in the debate.

Footnote:

* The 'wrong reason' was discussed in CITS DEBT WATCH Issue 32
and said:

    Greenspan announced the FRB was making a "preemptive attack
against inflation."

  This sounded quite strange to some of us. But it did have the
  effect of lowering stock market
prices.
  However, this lowering of stock market prices is for the "wrong
  reason."  Stock prices should be going down because P/E ratios
  are fantastically high.  And stock prices should be going
  down because with deflation, all prices decline -- even stock
  prices.
**********************************************************************

Back Issues of the CITS DEBT WATCH are available by entering the
phrase CTIS DEBT WATCH in the search box at:

        http://www.deja.com/home_ps.shtml


**********************************************************************
NOTICE: Contains copyrighted material, do not redistribute unless you
abide to the copyright notice appearing at the end of this article.

As provided for under Section 107 of the 1976 Copyright Law, the
following piece is being distributed for non-profit purposes and for
comment, criticism, and teaching.  In cases where the purpose of
conveying information is to fully inform the reader, an entire entry
or article is reproduced.  However, these extracts are typically a
very small percentage of the overall original work or publication.

Should you wish to convey this material, in the same spirit, you are
free to do so.
****************************Advertisement*****************************
Subscriptions to the Boston Globe are available at 617-929-2000 Boston
Globe archives are available for a fee at www.bostonglobe.com
****************************Advertisement*****************************

Greenspan: Fed needs to keep eye on stocks
           Says investors using profits to justify spending decisions

by Alice Ann Love
Associated Press

WASHINGTON - The Federal Reserve needs to pay closer attention to what
happens on Wall Street, chairman Alan Greenspan said yesterday, since
Americans reaping the rewards of the high-flying stock market are
using those paper profits to justify spending and other financial
decisions.

Stock prices declined after his speech, but there was no big selloff.
The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 108 points in quiet
trading.

Some economists interpreted Greenspan's comments as a signal that the
Fed may further raise interest rates this year. Two previous increases
- this week and on June 30 - have failed to dampen the Wall Street
stock-buying "exuberance" that Greenspan has expressed concern about.

"We no longer have the luxury to look primarily to the flow of goods
and services, as conventionally estimated,'' when evaluating broad
economic conditions, Greenspan told colleagues at the Federal
Reserve's annual retreat in Wyoming's Grand Tetons. The text was
distributed in Washington.

The Fed's recent interest rate increases have been aimed at easing
inflationary pressures that central bank policy-makers fear are
building in the economy as US consumers continue a protracted spending
binge.

Despite the announcement on Tuesday of this year's second
quarter-point increase in the influential federal funds rate - the
interest rate at which banks lend each other money - the Dow Jones
average of industrial stocks hit a record high of 11,326 on Wednesday
before declining a bit the next day.

"The concern is this: The major driver of consumer spending right now
is the stock market. Until and unless we can reduce some of that
unwarranted enthusiasm in the stock market we are not going to be able
to slow consumer spending for a soft landing," said Sung Won Sohn,
chief economist with Wells Fargo & Co. in Minneapolis.

There has long been a debate among economists over whether financial
markets should be taken into Consideration when the Fed sets interest
rate policy. Since a primary goal of the central bank is to keep
inflation in check, some argue, it needs to focus mostly on price
changes in the real economy, looking at such things as whether commod-
ity prices or wages are rising too quickly. Greenspan, however, in
yesterday's speech, said that given the larger percentage of household
wealth that is now accounted for by investments, the central bank
needs to watch financial markets more carefully.

An estimated 44 percent of American households owned stock either
directly or through retirement plans in 1998, up from 20 percent to 25
percent about a decade earlier.

"There are important - but extremely difficult - questions surrounding
the behavior of asset prices and the implications of this behavior for
the decisions of households and businesses," Greenspan said.

The difficulty for economic forecasters, Greenspan said, is that
despite all the sophisticated economic models at their disposal, it
still is virtually impossible to predict when a financial market
becomes overvalued and a crash is imminent.

"To anticipate a bubble about to burst requires the forecast of a
plunge in the prices of assets previously set by the judgments of mil-
lions of investors, many of whom are highly knowledgeable," he said.

But the Fed chairman said central bankers must put more effort into
determining the links between stock-market values and the real
economy.

The Commerce Department said yesterday that Americans' personal income
- which includes wages, interest and government benefits - rose 0.2
percent in July but was outpaced by a spending increase of 0.4
percent. The nation's savings rate is at negative 1.4 percent, a
near-record low.
**********************************************************************
Copyright Notice:  This article is protected under copyright law. The
right to disseminate this articles is also protected under copyright
law.

The copyright law permits copying of materials for personal use under
the protection of fair use.

The copyright law also permits the copying of recent materials for the
"teachable moment." This allows copying for educational purposes.

Also, the courts generally interpret copyright protection by economic
criteria.  If the copying of a material reduces revenues to the
copyright holder, the court usually decides in favor of the plaintiff;
if the copying doesn't effect or increases the revenues, the court
usually decides on behalf of the defendent.

It is our judgment that occasional copying of a newspaper article does
not reduce revenues to the publisher and can actually create more
demand for a newspaper by attracting readership. An excerpt provides
free advertising for the publisher.

Thus, under fair use, teachable moment, and economic criteria we
selectively convey this copyrighted material to others.

*********

On October 27th, 1998, a new law called The Digital Millenium
Copyright Act was signed (Public Law 105-298).  A copy of the law is
available from the Government Printing Office at:

    http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/useftp.cgi
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This law helps bring the U.S. into uniformity with the World
Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) treaty.

While a lengthy law, it's main orientation is towards "stored
copyrighted materials" and supports the right for libraries and
archives to contain copyrighted materials for non-commercial purposes.
There is a procedure outlined by which a publisher may ask that
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There is a requirement which every archive site should meet (including
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Copyright Office of a "designated agent" -- a person whom a copyright
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It is our opinion that it is extremely unlikely that a copyright
holder will ever contact an archive site's designated agent when
language, as we use, is provided to indicate the "fair use" aspect of
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********************************************************************

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