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COMMUNET Home

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COMMUNET  August 1999, Week 5

COMMUNET August 1999, Week 5

Subject:

Are we in a period of deflation?

From:

Curtiss Priest <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Community and Civic Network discussion list <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Tue, 31 Aug 1999 08:53:29 -0700

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (291 lines)

Please note that this transmission conforms to The Digital Millenium
                 Copyright Act of 1998 (see below)

                      W. Curtiss Priest, Ph.D.
             Center for Information, Technology & Society
              466 Pleasant Street Melrose, MA  02176
   E-mail: [log in to unmask], Voice: 781-662-4044, FAX: 781-662-6882

              This document may be distributed freely

                            August 31, 1999

                         An Open Discussion
              with Government, Foundations, Non-profits
                       and Grassroots Efforts

                          Public Issue #38:

                           CITS DEBT WATCH


                   Are we in a period of deflation?


                           ***************

            Commentary by Dr. W. Curtiss Priest, Director:


    In a recent posting the the Concord Coalition list, Mr.
Vetter asked a very important question:

>Date:    Sun, 29 Aug 1999 10:21:29 -0700
>From:    "Ronald F. Vetter" <[log in to unmask]>
>Subject: Re: "Can you make the Stock Market decline for the
>         'wrongreason'?:Revisited, Again"
>

>
>Curt,
>do you agree that the CPI-W indicates that we have inflation for every
>year -  nearly ever month - for most of the history of the index?
>

To which I responded (Mon, 30 Aug 1999 09:27:51 EDT):

  I am looking at basic commodities and removing the items that
  have been inflated by the boom -- such as real estate and rents.
  If you add in those "bubble components" to the picture, you get severe
  distortions of what is really going on.

  Raw materials have been in deflation for some years now.

*************

And today, this important article appeared in the Boston Globe
which addresses this very issue, and, especially, focuses on
rents and how the boom distorts those components of the CPI.

"Yes, Dorothy," we are in a period of deflation, masked by the
distortions of a boom, the likes of which this country has never
before witnessed based on the ratio of debt to GDP

See, further, CITS DEBT WATCH #18 "Periods of Deflation -- Why?"
September 1, 1998 -- and (for debt to GDP)

CITS DEBT WATCH #17 Debt, Deflation, Depressions and
Delusions:            Listening to the Past
  -- (paper based on the Roger Ward Babson Archives)
  June 16, 1998

**********************************************************************

Back Issues of the CITS DEBT WATCH are available by entering the
phrase CTIS DEBT WATCH in the search box at:

        http://www.deja.com/home_ps.shtml


**********************************************************************
NOTICE: Contains copyrighted material, do not redistribute unless you
abide to the copyright notice appearing at the end of this article.

As provided for under Section 107 of the 1976 Copyright Law, the
following piece is being distributed for non-profit purposes and for
comment, criticism, and teaching.  In cases where the purpose of
conveying information is to fully inform the reader, an entire entry
or article is reproduced.  However, these extracts are typically a
very small percentage of the overall original work or publication.

Should you wish to convey this material, in the same spirit, you are
free to do so.
****************************Advertisement*****************************
Subscriptions to the Boston Globe are available at 617-929-2000 Boston
Globe archives are available for a fee at www.bostonglobe.com
****************************Advertisement*****************************
Inflation up in Boston area and other high-tech hotbeds

By Kimberly Blanton, Globe Staff, 08/31/99

Inflation in the Boston area and other high-tech hotspots is surging
ahead of most of the country, driven by a rising stock market and
soaring real estate prices.

Boston's consumer price index, or CPI, rose 2.7 percent for the year
ending July 1999 - significantly faster than the US inflation rate of
2.1 percent for the past year, according to an analysis by Fleet
Financial Group Inc. based on monthly inflation data released by the
US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Inflation in Boston was fourth-highest
among major US metropolitan areas; the high-tech meccas of San
Francisco and Seattle led the way, followed by Detroit.

The nation's economic expansion during the 1990s has been marked by an
unusual period of low inflation. But the cost of living varies widely
from city to city: Miami's inflation rate was languid, not even
reaching 1 percent, while San Francisco's leaped nearly 4 percent over
the past year.

A big jump in rental rates for housing and a steep increase in the
cost of medical care accounted for much of the rise in Boston-area
prices.

''If you think the cost of living is rising here faster than the rest
of the country, it's true,'' said Nicholas Perna, Fleet's chief
economist, though he noted that inflation, nevertheless, remains
''surprisingly low.''

Economists say it is no coincidence that cities, namely Boston,
Seattle, and San Francisco, that are experiencing a stock
market-induced boom in their high-tech sectors - a boom that feeds
local economies overall - are among those cities seeing their local
prices rise most and their residents' paychecks squeezed hardest.

The stock market boom is ''driving rents in those areas,'' which are a
big factor driving up inflation, said David Wyss, director of US
economic research for Standard & Poor's DRI in Lexington. ''Boston and
San Francisco are among the cities with some of the tightest housing
markets,'' he said.

What economists call the ''wealth effect'' - prosperity that
accompanies a swelling of stock, mutual fund, or retirement portfolios
- has produced big increases in consumption, including purchases of
housing. In high-tech regions, the wealth effect is magnified by
concentrations of workers who are compensated with stock options as
well as salaries.

As the value of these start-up companies has soared and its stock
price doubles or triples, workers trade valuable stock options issued
by their employers for more square footage in their houses or
apartments, analysts said.

San Francisco, the heart of the nation's high-tech industry and
headquarters for computer giants such as Sun Microsystems, Intel
Corp., and Cisco Systems, has become known for horror stories about
its housing market, including reports of some homes selling for
hundreds of thousands of dollars over asking prices.

San Francisco also had the fastest increase in inflation - 3.8 percent
- over the past year of any city. Unusually sharp increases in gas
prices in California were another factor pushing up the Bay Area CPI.

Nationally, the housing boom shows no sign of abating. US sales of new
homes remained strong in July, unexpectedly rising 0.1 percent in July
to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 980,000 - the second-highest
level ever - as consumers and builders prospered from job and income
growth, US Commerce Department figures released yesterday showed.

The second-highest CPI in the country, after San Francisco, was
Seattle, which is also a participant in the nation's high-tech boom.
The home of behemoth Microsoft Corp. and scads of entrepreneurs in
related lines of business, Seattle had a 3.1 percent inflation rate
over the past year. Third-place Detroit had a 2.8 percent inflation
rate.

The national CPI is the index watched most closely by the Federal
Reserve to determine whether inflation is in danger of taking off.
Although US inflation remains tame, the Fed has raised interest rates
by a half percentage point this year amid signs of wage inflation,
which board members fear could pop up in the CPI.

But Fed chairman Alan Greenspan, speaking to economists at an elite
gathering last week in Jackson Hole, Wyo., noted the importance of the
wealth effect in setting monetary policy at a time the US stock market
is holding at record levels. Greenspan said the central bank would
''increasingly focus on changes in asset values'' in setting interest
rates in an effort to keep inflation in check.

In addition to Boston's high-tech renaissance, a second big force
behind rising prices in the area was the soaring cost of medical care,
which jumped 7.1 percent over the past year. Prescription drug costs
as well as a high use of physicians who are specialists are among the
factors pushing up the cost of heath care for Boston residents.

Nationwide, by comparison, medical care costs were up 3.2 percent.

Rents for homes and apartments - which are a proxy for other housing
costs, such as the price of buying a home - are among the most
important components in the government's calculation of the CPI.
Housing absorbs about 15 percent of consumer spending, economists
said.

And rents in Boston are rising faster than the rest of the country,
due to a lifting of rent control in Cambridge, Brookline, and Boston,
and to a high-tech boom that has led to a frenzy of buying in Boston
and surrounding cities. Boston-area rents rose 4.8 percent over the
past year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which
generates consumer price data for the government. Nationwide, rents
rose 3.2 percent.

California cities have an added source of inflation unique to their
state.

The state's residents have been hit by new state environmental
regulations that require motorists to use specially formulated
gasoline. While gasoline prices at the pump are rising around the
country, because of higher oil prices, gasoline prices in California
are now around $1.75 a gallon.

Boston's inflation is still under control, Wyss said, but the 3.8
percent rate in San Francisco is worrisome.

''When the CPI gets around 4 percent it starts making people
nervous,'' he said.

This story ran on page A01 of the Boston Globe on 08/31/99.  c
Copyright 1999 Globe Newspaper Company.
**********************************************************************
Copyright Notice:  This article is protected under copyright law. The
right to disseminate this articles is also protected under copyright
law.

The copyright law permits copying of materials for personal use under
the protection of fair use.

The copyright law also permits the copying of recent materials for the
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Also, the courts generally interpret copyright protection by economic
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It is our judgment that occasional copying of a newspaper article does
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Thus, under fair use, teachable moment, and economic criteria we
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*********

On October 27th, 1998, a new law called The Digital Millenium
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********************************************************************

--


           W. Curtiss Priest, Director, CITS
      Center for Information, Technology & Society
         466 Pleasant St., Melrose, MA  02176
         Voice: 781-662-4044  [log in to unmask]
 Fax: 781-662-6882 WWW: http://www.eff.org/pub/Groups/CITS

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December 1993, Week 5
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