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SKIVT-L  September 1999, Week 5

SKIVT-L September 1999, Week 5

Subject:

FW: Vail Resorts, Inc. 1999 Ends Down Year Due To Poor Snow

From:

"Salts, Peter" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Thu, 30 Sep 1999 08:55:28 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (99 lines)

For those who might be interested,

From: gs-research
Sent: Thursday, September 30, 1999 8:00 AM
To: gs-research-subscriber
Subject: Vail Resorts, Inc. 1999 Ends Down Year Due To Poor Snow - FULL
ACTION in the A.M. - U.S.




                 Goldman, Sachs & Co. Investment Research

          Vail Resorts, Inc. 1999 Ends Down Year Due To Poor Snow

                  * * FULL ACTION in the A.M. - U.S. * *

    New York Investment Research (New York)  -  -  Investment Research

===================  NOTE  7:41 AM  September 30, 1999  ===================

21 Vail Resorts, Inc. 1999 Ends Down Year Due To Poor Snow (MTN)  $21.56
   Richard P. Simon (New York) 1 212 902-6792
   Richard Greenfield (New York) 1 212 902-6830

   EPS (FY Jul): 2000E US$0.49, 2001E US$ - Recommended List

*  After a disappointing (weather related) fiscal (July) 1999, Vail is
   poised for a strong recovery in fiscal 2000. The combination of 'normal'
   ski conditions and the season early opening (January 6, 2000) of
   Category III at Vail should set the stage for a dramatic skier day
   recovery. Responding to the poor ski conditions and in turn
   disappointing earnings performance, Vail common stock has performed
   poorly over the past year (up 3% vs. the S&P's advance of 22%). At 7.9x
   estimated calendar 2000 EBITDA, we believe Vail is undervalued and
   continue to recommend the stock.
*  2000 SKIER DAY OUTLOOK.    The 1998/1999 ski season experienced the
   worst Colorado snow conditions in 40 years, and as a result MTN's skier
   days declined 2.4%. We continue to believe the key question for the
   1999/2000 ski season, given normal snow conditions, is whether the 2000
   skier levels are effected by the depressed 1999 base or can skier days
   reach the levels it would have attained had 1998/1999 skier days been up
   2-3%, in keeping with secular trends. We believe a critical element to
   the tone of 1999/2000 skier days is a strong initial snowfall, as
   destination visitors may be fearful of the subpar conditions experienced
   last year (last year initial snowfall was extremely poor; the Back
   Bowls of Vail did not open until late February). This is especially
   important, given today's announcement (previously alluded to) that
   Category III (Blue Sky Basin) will open on January 6. Although only 60%
   will be open at that time, it should generate significant excitement and
   benefit skier days. Category III was not scheduled to open until the
   2000/2001 ski season. We are assuming a 5% increase in skier days, which
   leaves room for upside, especially given Category III's opening. A 5%
   increase in skier days would result in 4.851 million skier days, about
   3% above 1998's levels.
*  2000 PRICING OUTLOOK.     The mix between local and destination
   visitors, as well as a 50% increase in the pricing of local season
   passes, will have a notable effect on effective ticket prices (ETP). We
   expect above secular (3%) pricing increases with a rebound in the
   destination skier component and higher local season pass pricing. The
   increase in destination visitors will also benefit per capita food, ski
   school, and lodging expenditures.
*  2000 EBITDA OUTLOOK.     Based on the above, we believe fiscal 2000
   Resort EBITDA will advance about 35% to $116 million from $86 million,
   and compared to 1998 Resort EBITDA of $106 million.

Important Disclosures (code definitions attached or available upon request)
MTN        : M

___________________________________________________________________
The above text is best read in a fixed font such as Courier.

The GS Financial Workbench has determined that this new comment
matches your GS Alert settings:

'MTN'


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