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FPUS51 KBTV 190733
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
333 AM EDT FRI MAY 19 2000

NYZ028-035-VTZ001-002-005-009-191500-
ADDISON-CHITTENDEN-E ESSEX NY-FRANKLIN VT-GRAND ISLE-NE CLINTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BURLINGTON...MIDDLEBURY...PLATTSBURGH...
ST. ALBANS
333 AM EDT FRI MAY 19 2000

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH 55 TO 60. NORTH WIND AROUND 10 MPH.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW AROUND 40. LIGHT EAST WIND.
.SATURDAY...BECOMING CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON.
HIGH 55 TO 60. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF EVENING SHOWERS THEN CLEARING. LOW 40
TO 45.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH 65 TO 70.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. LOW IN THE MID 40S. HIGH AROUND 70.
.TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOW AROUND 45. HIGH
AROUND 70.

$$

VTZ003-004-006>008-010-191500-
CALEDONIA-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTPELIER...NEWPORT...ST. JOHNSBURY
333 AM EDT FRI MAY 19 2000

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. NORTH WIND
AROUND 10 MPH.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW 30 TO 35. LIGHT WIND.
.SATURDAY...BECOMING CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS. HIGH IN
THE MID 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY...THEN CLEARING. LOW
AROUND 40.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE MID 60S.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. LOW AROUND 40. HIGH 65 TO 70.
.TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOW 40 TO 45. HIGH
65 TO 70.

$$

VTZ011-012-191500-
RUTLAND-WINDSOR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD
333 AM EDT FRI MAY 19 2000

.TODAY...VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. NORTH
WIND AROUND 10 MPH.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. LOW AROUND 40. LIGHT EAST WIND.
.SATURDAY...CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGH IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY EARLY THEN CLEARING. LOW AROUND 40.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH 65 TO 70.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. LOW 40 TO 45. HIGH IN THE LOWER 70S.
.TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOW AROUND 45. HIGH
70 TO 75.

$$

NYZ026-027-191500-
N FRANKLIN NY-N ST LAWRENCE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MALONE...MASSENA
333 AM EDT FRI MAY 19 2000

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH 55 TO 60. NORTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW 35 TO 40. LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND.
.SATURDAY...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MIDDAY.
HIGH 55 TO 60. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF EVENING SHOWERS...THEN CLEARING. LOW 40
TO 45.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH 65 TO 70.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. LOW IN THE 40S. HIGH AROUND 70.
.TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOW AROUND 45. HIGH
AROUND 70.

$$

NYZ029>031-034-191500-
S FRANKLIN NY-S ST LAWRENCE-SW CLINTON-W ESSEX NY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LAKE PLACID
333 AM EDT FRI MAY 19 2000

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH 50 TO 55. NORTH WIND 5 TO 10 MPH.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW 30 TO 35. LIGHT WIND.
.SATURDAY...BECOMING CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS BY MIDDAY. HIGH
50 TO 55. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF EVENING SHOWERS...THEN CLEARING.
LOW 35 TO 40.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE MID 60S.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. LOW 35 TO 40. HIGH 65 TO 70.
.TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOW AROUND 40. HIGH
65 TO 70.

$$

SLW




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FXUS61 KBTV 190551
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
150 AM EDT FRI MAY 19 2000

POSSIBLE CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR TODAY AND THE WEEKEND THAT
WILL NOT MAKE ME ANY FRIENDS...

THIS SPRING..."IF THERE/S ANY CHANCE IT WILL RAIN...IT WILL".
IN FACT...YDYS RAINFALL PLACES KBTV AS 10TH WETTEST MAY WITH 5.18
INCHES AND OVER 10 INCHES SINCE APRIL 1ST.

BIG PIX: A COUPLE OF LARGE SCALE FEATURES SETTING THE PLATE FOR
SMALLER NUISANCE SYSTEMS TO PLAGUE OUR WEEKEND FCST.

NRN STREAM S/W AND TROF AXIS ACRS QUEBEC CRNTLY AND EXITING REGION
AND WAS THE MAIN STEERING SYSTEM FOR CD FNT THAT HAS BECOME STNRY
S OF FA. SE USA UPR RDG STL PREVALENT AND FORCING THE SRN STREAM TO
FLOW TOWARD NE WHICH IS FILLED BY SVRL WK S/W BEING EJECTED FM FOUR
CORNERS LOW.

ERLR THINKING AND MDL PROJECTIONS WERE THAT NRN STREAM S/W WUD MV
MORE SE ACRS QUEBEC NRN NE TO CLR CD FNT AND LV BNDRY ACRS MID-
ATLANTIC/NJ FOR DECENT WKND HERE AND INCLEMENT WX ALG BNDRY. HWVR...
WITH NRN S/W MVG MORE E AND PLACING BNDRY MUCH CLOSER...WE HAVE TO
LOOK AT SOME -SHRA THREAT.

I/LL GIVE CREDIT TO WHERE CREDITS DUE...CNDN SEF HINTED AT THIS
SCENARIO AS WELL AS MID-ATLANTIC LOW FOR SUN NGT/MON.

CRNTLY: RDR BASICALLY SHWG NOTHING BUT SOME -DZ IN THE CHMPL VLY WITH
A N WND AND CLRG CONFINED TO FAR NRN BDRS. COMPOSITE RDRS/SAT PIXS
SHW A MCC MVG ENE ALG NY/PA BDR ALG CD FNT TURNED STNRY BNDRY ALG
GULF OF ME-KORH-KALY LINE.

SHORT TERM: UPR FLOW PARALLEL TO BNDRY WITH UPR S/W (#1) IN LWR GRT
LAKES CAUSING WSW FLOW INTO NE. THIS S/W WL DIMINISH AS IT MVS NE
INTO CONFLUENT ZONE BUT PLENTY OF MOIST CONVERGENCE ALG BNDRY TO STL
GENERATE -SHRA/-TSRA ALG BNDRY TDY. MDLD QPF BRGS MSRBL UP TO I-89
CORRIDOR BUT DESPITE CRNT NORTHWARD TRENDS WL CONSIDER MIN POPS FOR
SRN ZONES TDY AS SFC HIGH STL ACRS QUEBEC.

LONGER TERM: S/W #2 WL FOLLOW SMLR PATH ACRS LWR GRT LAKES AND
EVENTUALLY ACRS SNE LATE SAT/SAT NGT. DFRNCS ARE SFC HIGH ARD NOVA
SCOTIA/NEW BRUNSWICK WITH RETURN FLOW ALLOWING FOR ESE FETCH ACRS
ATLANTIC INTO NE PROVIDING MOISTURE AND UPR FLOW NO LONGER CONFLUENT.
THEREFORE...CLDS WITH -SHRA/-RA AND MYSELF BCMG A MEMBER OF THE
FEDERAL WITNESS PROTECTION PROGRAM.

SOME LGT AT THE END OF THE "GRADUATION TUNNELS" PSBL FOR SUNDAY AS
S/W RDG BEHIND #2 AND AHD OF #3 WL ALLOW FOR A SFC RDG TO MV IN FOR A
DRY DAY ON SUNDAY.

EXTENDED: S/W #3 DVLPS A DECENT MID-ATLANTIC SFC LOW THAT WL LKLY
STAY WELL ENOUGH S FOR CHC -SHRA MON. HWVR...CNDN SEF THAT HINTED AT
THESE CHGS YDY SHEARS THIS SYSTEM OUT TO SEA IN WEAKER FORM LATE
SUNDAY AND AWAITS FURTHER UPSTREAM ENERGY FOR -SHRA ON TUES.

I/LL CONT CRNT XTND OF DRY SUN/MON BUT A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC ON
SKY COVER AND KEEP CHC -SHRA FOR TUES.

WORKS AVBL ARD 230 AM.

.BTV...NONE.

SLW





FXUS61 KBTV 190147
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
947 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2000

STILL SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING IN VT WITH FORCING MAINLY FROM
OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE OF LOW LEVEL NW FLOW. DRIER AIR STILL FEEDING
SOUTH SO THE TREND WILL BE FOR THESE SHOWERS TO DRY UP AROUND
MIDNIGHT OR SO.

1.29 OF PRECIP AT MSS
0.88 AT KSLK
0.40 AT BTV WITH ABOUT A HALF INCH PRETTY COMMON IN VT.

BIG CHANGES IN 18Z ETA FROM 12Z RUN FOR SOUTHERN ZONES WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND MEASUREABLE PRECIP LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. 12Z
AVN ACTUALLY SIMILAR WITH THIS PATTERN. I WONDER IF THE BIG CHANGE
IS BECAUSE OF ALL THE CONVECTION AT MODEL INITIAL TIME. WILL HOLD
OFF ON MAKING ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME AND WILL LET NEXT SHIFT SEE
IF THE MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND SINCE THERE IS STILL TIME BEFORE
JUMPING ON THIS ONE RUN.

TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS SO
CURRENT HAS THIS COVERED WELL.

.BTV...NONE.

PS





FXUS61 KBTV 181846
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
245 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2000

WIND SHIFT AXIS ALREADY THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...THE
NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AT 230 PM...
EXPECT A CONTINUED SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE
TAKING THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH IT AND SO WILL ONLY KEEP A
CHANCE OF EVENING THUNDER IN EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
NEVERTHELESS EXPECT SHOWERS TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN
ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.  MODELS SUGGESTING
PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT...WITH RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES THE LAST
TO HAVE THIS OCCUR.  NO FOG FORECAST TONIGHT BASED ON EXPECTED
NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AND ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONE FLOATS ACROSS ONTARIO ON FRIDAY...WITH A COOLER
AIRMASS FILTERING INTO THE AREA FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.  FEWEST CLOUDS WILL BE NORTH...AND THE MOST CLOUD COVER
IN SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT NEAREST THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  BENIGN
WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY WITH THICKNESSES REBOUNDING
AND SUNNIER SKIES. SOME CONCERN THAT EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN ON SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT NEARER THE COAST...SO HAVE HELD MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S ALL ZONES.

3 TO 5 DAY...MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS CONSISTENTLY DRY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THEN PATTERNS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON MONDAY WITH MRF MOST PESSIMISTIC
AND THE ECMWF MOST OPTIMISTIC.  UKMET WANTS TO KEEP OUR REGION DRY
ON MONDAY THEN BRING AN UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN TOWARD US ON
TUESDAY.  THE MRF ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE UKMET OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. AND SO WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ST. JEAN

.BTV...NONE.



     This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/emwin/winven.htm
   2. http://weather.gov/iwin/graphics.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html


069
ASUS51 KBTV 110805
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM EDT TUE APR 11 2000

VTZ001>014-110900-

.....VERMONT.....


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    32  22  66 S6        30.31R
MONTPELIER     CLEAR     29  19  66 CALM      30.30R
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    34  24  67 W7        30.29R
ST. JOHNSBURY  N/A       25  22  88 CALM      30.27R
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    30  23  74 CALM      30.31R
SPRINGFIELD    CLEAR     27  24  89 S6        30.33R WCI  22
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    31  22  69 SW6       30.33R

......KEY......
FAIR - FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12000 FEET, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
       OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX



     Our student forecasts have been completed for the year. They will
                         resume again in September.

      The forecast below is provided by the National Weather Service.

     _________________________________________________________________

CALEDONIA-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTPELIER...NEWPORT...ST. JOHNSBURY
333 AM EDT FRI MAY 19 2000

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. NORTH WIND
AROUND 10 MPH.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW 30 TO 35. LIGHT WIND.
.SATURDAY...BECOMING CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS. HIGH IN
THE MID 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY...THEN CLEARING. LOW
AROUND 40.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE MID 60S.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. LOW AROUND 40. HIGH 65 TO 70.
.TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOW 40 TO 45. HIGH
65 TO 70.

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