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944
FPUS51 KBTV 150759
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 AM EDT TUE AUG 15 2000

NYZ028-035-VTZ001-002-005-009-151500-
ADDISON-CHITTENDEN-E ESSEX NY-FRANKLIN VT-GRAND ISLE-NE CLINTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BURLINGTON...MIDDLEBURY...PLATTSBURGH...
ST. ALBANS
359 AM EDT TUE AUG 15 2000

.TODAY...CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH IN THE LOWER 80S.  LIGHT WIND...
THEN A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  LOW IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.  SOUTH WIND AT 5 TO 15
MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY IN THE MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...THEN
PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH IN THE MID 70S.  CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A LOW IN THE 50S.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY.  HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
.FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW IN THE 50S. HIGH IN THE 70S.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. LOW 50 TO 55. HIGH IN THE 70S.

$$

VTZ003-004-006>008-151500-
CALEDONIA-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTPELIER...NEWPORT...ST. JOHNSBURY
359 AM EDT TUE AUG 15 2000

.TODAY...CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  HIGH 75 TO 80.  LIGHT WIND.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TOWARD MORNING.  LOW AROUND 60.
SOUTH WIND AT 5 TO 10 MPH.  CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE
MORNING...THEN PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.  CHANCE OF
RAIN 60 PERCENT.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.  LOW IN THE 50S.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY.  HIGH IN THE MID 70S.
.FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW IN THE 50S. HIGH IN THE 70S.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. LOW 50 TO 55. HIGH IN THE 70S.

$$

VTZ010>012-151500-
ORANGE-RUTLAND-WINDSOR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD
359 AM EDT TUE AUG 15 2000

.TODAY...CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A
40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  HIGH 75 TO 80.  LIGHT WIND.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TOWARD MORNING.  LOW 60 TO 65.  SOUTH WIND AT
5 TO 10 MPH.  CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE
MORNING...THEN PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH IN THE MID 70S.  CHANCE OF RAIN 60
PERCENT.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.  LOW IN THE 50S.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY.  HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
.FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW IN THE 50S. HIGH IN THE 70S.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. LOW 50 TO 55. HIGH IN THE 70S.

$$

NYZ026-027-151500-
N FRANKLIN NY-N ST LAWRENCE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MALONE...MASSENA
359 AM EDT TUE AUG 15 2000

.TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A HIGH IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.  LIGHT
WIND THIS MORNING...THE SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASING TO 5 TO 15 MPH.
.TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY...
DEVELOPING TOWARD MIDNIGHT.  LOW 60 TO 65.  SOUTHWEST WIND AT 5 TO
15 MPH.  CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN PARTLY SUNNY IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH IN THE MID 70S.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.  LOW IN THE 50S.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
.FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW IN THE 50S. HIGH IN THE 70S.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. LOW 50 TO 55. HIGH IN THE 70S.

$$

NYZ029>031-034-151500-
S FRANKLIN NY-S ST LAWRENCE-SW CLINTON-W ESSEX NY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LAKE PLACID
359 AM EDT TUE AUG 15 2000

.TODAY...CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A HIGH IN THE MID 70S. LIGHT WIND THIS
MORNING...THE SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH.
.TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY...
DEVELOPING TOWARD MIDNIGHT.  LOW AROUND 60.  SOUTHWEST WIND AT 5 TO
10 MPH.  CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN PARTLY SUNNY IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH 70 TO 75.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.  LOW IN THE 50S.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
.FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW IN THE 50S. HIGH IN THE 70S.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. LOW 50 TO 55. HIGH IN THE 70S.

$$

EVENSON




   [INLINE]
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     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 150751
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
351 AM EDT TUE AUG 15 2000

UPPER TROUGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO ELONGATE OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VORT MAX MOVING
TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT THE MOMENT AND APPEARS TO BE
ENHANCING PRECIPITATION OVER THIS AREA.  FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE
NORTH SO THIS PRECIPITATION WILL STILL HAVE A CHANCE TO HAVE AN
IMPACT ON THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.  GOING
FORECAST HAS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ALREADY AND THIS
LOOKS REAL GOOD.  WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
LIMITED AS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE APPROACHING UPSTREAM TROUGH
WILL FORCE THE ATLANTIC TROUGH EASTWARD.  DRIER AIR TO THE WEST
WILL GRADUALLY FILTER IN SO CLEARING TREND SHOULD OCCUR FROM WEST TO
EAST.  WILL GO FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY...PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AND PARTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE.  THIS WILL BE AFTER SOME
MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG.  THICKNESS TRENDS SUGGEST AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.  GOING
FORECAST HAS A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS.

STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT.  ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK
TONIGHT AND TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS IN VERMONT.  GOING FORECAST OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ALL AREAS LOOKS REAL GOOD AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH THIS IDEA.  DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE INCREASING WITH
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AS WELL AS THE 0-6KM DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ALL
SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE IN
THE LIKELY RANGE.  WILL NOT USE ANY ENHANCED WORDING...BUT ELEMENTS
APPEAR TO BE THERE FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY...FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BUT LOW
LEVEL DRYING IS SO TO TAKE PLACE.  THIS SETS US UP FOR LINGERING
INSTABILITY AND THE THREAT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
WILL END PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING...THEN GO WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION.  FORECAST AREA WILL
BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WITH ANY VORT CENTERS MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE.  IN SOME CASES BASED
ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...THESE STORMS ARE THE ONES
THAT BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

IN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS.  GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED AND
SEE NO NEED FOR ANY CHANGES.  REMAINDER OF EXTENDED TO REMAIN
UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME.

WORK ZONES IN ALBADMBTV...BUT SUBJECT TO ANY LAST MINUTE CHANGES
BASED ON CLOUD/FOG TRENDS.

EVENSON

.BTV...NONE.





FXUS61 KBTV 150215
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1014 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2000

THE EVENING WAS HIGHLIGHTED BY A TIGHT H7 CRCLN OR VORT CENTER WHICH
SEEMED TO SPIN UP OVER SWRN VT AS THE UPR LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
ELONGATED NWRD.  THERE WAS A DRAMATIC H7 WARM FRONT ON THE VAD WIND
PROFILE AT KCXX WHICH PASSED NEAR THE BACK OF THE OVRRNG BAND OF
MODERATE RAIN WHICH SPREAD NWRD TRHU CENTRAL AND NRN VT BETWEEN 4 PM
AND 10 PM LDT.  THE ENTIRE VERTICAL MOTION PROFILE WAS ENHANCED
BY THE UPR DEFORMATION AND ESPECIALLY THE SPD DVGC INTO THE
RIGHT REAR OF A SMALL WIND MAX MVG NEWRD THRU QUEBEC. RAFL
RANGED FROM A QTR TO THREE-QTRS OF AN INCH DURING THIS PERIOD.

SERN VT HAS GOTTEN INTO THE DRY SLOT AND MOST INTENSE OVRRNG HAS
MOVED INTO QUEBEC...SO NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL PRECIP EXPCTD TNGT EVEN
THOUGH THE UPR DEFORMATION BAND STILL LIES OVR THE ADIRONDACKS
AND PLENTIFUL MSTR IN PLACE.  IT MAY TAKE UNTIL 12 TO 18Z TUES FOR
THE ENTIRE UPR TROF TO BE NUDGED SLOWLY EWRD...SO CHC SHOWERS
RETAINED FOR SRN AND ERN SECTIONS THRU MIDDAY TUESDAY.

FOG WILL BE PRETTY WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT...BUT PERHAPS NOT TOO
DENSE SINCE REAL CLEARING FOR RADIATIONAL FOG NOT EXPECTED.

.BTV...NONE.

BELL





FXUS61 KBTV 142152
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
552 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2000

QUICK AMENDMENT TO THE ZONES FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
NECESSITATED BY RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL VT AND NH.  UPDATED TO
CATEGORICAL RAIN FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...NERN ADIRIONDACKS...AND
NCNTRL-NERN VT FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
COVERAGE MAY LESSEN SOME BY MIDNIGHT.

RADAR OBSERVATIONS NOW ALSO WELL SUPPORTED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWING UPR LOW HUGGING THE JERSEY COAST CLOSER THAN EXPECTED AND
BEGINNING TO TWIST INTO A STRAIGHT N-S AXIS.  THIS MEANS DEEP LAYERED
ELYS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BACK TO AN AXIS OF DEFORMATION
THAT SEEMS TO BE SETTING UP IN THE ADIRONDACKS. EVEN THE SHORTEST
RANGE MODELS NOT CATCHING THE TREND VERY WELL.  THIS IS AN UPPER
AIR PATTERN REMINISCENT OF A JANUARY STORM THAT REQUIRED ALL
FORECASTERS IN THE MID ATLC AND NORTHEAST TO ADJUST PRECIPITATION
FCSTS WWRD FROM MODEL GUIDANCE.

.BTV...NONE.

BELL





FXUS61 KBTV 141926
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
326 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2000

COASTAL STORM SYS TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF SRN NEW ENG THRU
TUE...AS THE ASSOCIATED UPR LOW MOVES ACRS SRN NEW ENG. WK SFC RIDGE
OF HI PRESS TO BRIEFLY TO BE LOCATED OVER THE FA ON TUE...AS A STRONG
CF SWEEPS ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION. THIS FRONT TO SWEEP ACRS THE FA
ON TUE NITE AND EARLY ON WED WITH A SECONDARY TROF OF LOW PRESS (AND
TROPOPAUSE FOLD) TO MOVE ACRS THE FA ON WED.

H85 NEUTRAL ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TONITE WITH WAA ACRS
NY ON TUE (AND SPREADING ACRS VT LATER ON TUE). MORE WAA ACRS THE
FA ON EARLY TUE NITE...THEN CAA (BEHIND THE FRONT) LATER ON TUE NITE
AND WED (STRONGEST CAA ON WED).

BEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE TO BE LOCATED ACRS EASTERN/SRN VT TONITE AND
EARLY ON TUE. MORE LOW-LVL MOISTURE (AND EXCELLENT LOW-LVL MOISTURE
ADVECTION) TO MOVE INTO THE ST LAW VLY EARLY ON TUE NITE. PLENTY OF
LOW-LVL MOISTURE TO ADVECT ACRS FA ON TUE NITE AND LINGER INTO WED.
PW VALUES APPEAR TO BE AROUND 1.5" WITH COASTAL LOW MOISTURE
AFFECTING EASTERN VT TONITE AND MOISTURE FROM COLD FROPA LATER IN THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

12Z ETA HAS CAPES OF 200-400 J/KG ACRS THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE ST
LAW VLY EARLY TONITE. STILL A CHC FOR A -SHRA OR AT LEAST A SPRINKLE
EARLY THIS EVENING THERE. CAPES OF 400-800 J/KG ON TUE NITE ACRS THE
FA AND 400-1000 J/KG ON WED (ESPECIALLY ACRS EASTERN VT). THETA-E
RIDGE TO CROSS THE FA ON TUE NITE AND ACRS EASTERN VT EARLY ON WED.
SFC-H7 SHEAR ONLY AROUND 10 M/S ON TUE NITE AND 5-10 M/S ON WED...SO
ANY THREAT OF SVR WX LOOKS TO BE TO THE SW OF THE FA ON TUE NITE/WED
WITH FROPA. SPC HAS FA IN GEN TSTM OUTLOOK FOR LATE TUE/TUE NITE AND
AGREE WITH THIS.

88D MOSAIC SHOWS PCPN ROTATING NW ACRS SRN VT/EASTERN NY STATE ATTM.
SFC OBS INDICATE THAT MUCH OF THE PCPN OVER THE ADIRONDACKS ATTM IS
ALOFT. WILL ONLY INCLUDE POPS IN SRN AND EAST-CENTRAL VT FOR
TONITE/EARLY TUE. LIKELY POPS LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET ACRS MUCH OF THE
FA ON TUE NITE. SCT POPS ON WED. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ON
TUE...SO CU FORMATION A POSSIBILITY ACRS THE HIR TRRN THEN.

MOS TEMPS LOOK A TAD LOW FOR TUE WITH GOOD WAA. NGM MOS POPS TOO LOW
FOR FROPA DURING THE SHORT TERM AND HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS AVN
POPS.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...HI PRESS FOR THU. ANOTHER FROPA ON FRI. BIG
HI PRESS TO BUILD DOWN FROM SRN CANADA ON SAT. MRF MOS TEMPS LOOK A
LIL ON THE COOL SIDE.

WORK ZONES OUT. FINAL ZFP AFTER A QUICK LOOK AT THE LATEST OBS AND
LAMP DATA.

.BTV...NONE.

MURRAY



     This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/emwin/winven.htm
   2. http://weather.gov/iwin/graphics.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html


697
ASUS51 KBTV 151005
SWRVT
ALBSWRVT ALL

VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT TUE AUG 15 2000

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-151100-
_____VERMONT_____

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTCLDY    61  60  97 CALM      30.06R
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    61  61 100 CALM      30.12S
MORRISVILLE    FOG       59  58  96 CALM      30.10R VSB 1/2
ST. JOHNSBURY  N/A       60  60 100 CALM      30.07S
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    61  61 100 SW3       30.08R
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    62  62 100 CALM      30.06S
$$

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX



    Our Local Student forecasts have been completed for the School year.
              They will resume again in September. Thank You.

       The forecast below is provided by the National Weather Service

     _________________________________________________________________

 CALEDONIA-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
 INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTPELIER...NEWPORT...ST. JOHNSBURY
 359 AM EDT TUE AUG 15 2000

 .TODAY...CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
 A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY DURING
 THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  HIGH 75 TO 80.  LIGHT WIND.
 .TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS WITH
 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TOWARD MORNING.  LOW AROUND 60.
 SOUTH WIND AT 5 TO 10 MPH.  CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
 .WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE
 MORNING...THEN PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF
 SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.  CHANCE OF
 RAIN 60 PERCENT.

 .EXTENDED FORECAST...
 .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.  LOW IN THE 50S.
 .THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY.  HIGH IN THE MID 70S.
 .FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW IN THE 50S. HIGH IN THE 70S.
 .SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. LOW 50 TO 55. HIGH IN THE 70S.

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