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351
FPUS51 KBTV 290903
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
403 AM EST SUN OCT 29 2000

VTZ001-002-005-009-NYZ028-035-292030-
ADDISON-CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ESSEX-FRANKLIN-GRAND ISLE-
NORTHEAST CLINTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BURLINGTON...MIDDLEBURY...PLATTSBURGH...
SOUTH HERO...ST. ALBANS...TICONDEROGA
403 AM EST SUN OCT 29 2000

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SNOW FLURRIES EARLY...THEN OCCASIONAL SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION BY
LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 4 INCHES. WINDY. COLD WITH A HIGH IN THE MID 30S.
NORTH WIND 20 TO 30 MPH.
.TONIGHT...OCCASIONAL SNOW...TAPERING OFF TO SNOW FLURRIES LATE THIS
EVENING. TOTAL ACCUMULATION...2 TO 4 INCHES BUT AROUND 6 INCHES IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BRISK. LOW 25 TO 30. NORTH WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF
SNOW 80 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH 35 TO 40. CHANCE
OF SNOW 40 PERCENT.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES. LOW IN THE
LOWER 30S.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH 45 TO 50.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE 30S AND HIGH NEAR 50.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE 30S AND HIGH IN THE LOWER 50S.

$$

VTZ003-004-006>008-010-292030-
CALEDONIA-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISLAND POND...MONTPELIER...NEWPORT...
RANDOLPH...ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE
403 AM EST SUN OCT 29 2000

...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SNOW FLURRIES...THEN OCCASIONAL SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION BY
LATE AFTERNOON 2 TO 4 INCHES. COLD AND WINDY. TEMPERATURES STEADY IN
THE LOWER 30S. NORTH WIND 20 TO 30 MPH.
.TONIGHT...OCCASIONAL SNOW...TAPERING OFF TO SNOW FLURRIES LATE THIS
EVENING. TOTAL ACCUMULATION...4 TO 8 INCHES. BRISK. LOW 25 TO 30.
NORTH WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH IN THE UPPER
30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES. LOW 25 TO 30.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGH IN THE MID 40S.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE 20S AND HIGH IN THE UPPER 40S.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW 30 TO 35 AND HIGH NEAR 50.

$$

VTZ011-012-292030-
RUTLAND-WINDSOR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD
403 AM EST SUN OCT 29 2000

.TODAY...SNOW FLURRIES...THEN OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW. UP TO 2 INCHES
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. COLD AND WINDY.
HIGH IN THE MID 30S. NORTH WIND 20 TO 30 MPH.
.TONIGHT...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW...TAPERING OFF TO SNOW FLURRIES
LATE THIS EVENING. TOTAL ACCUMULATION...1 TO 3 INCHES. BRISK. LOW 25
TO 30. NORTH WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. BLUSTERY. HIGH 35 TO
40. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES. LOW NEAR 30.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH 45 TO 50.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE 30S AND HIGH NEAR 50.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE 30S AND HIGH IN THE LOWER 50S.

$$

NYZ026-027-029-292030-
NORTHERN FRANKLIN-NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MALONE...MASSENA...STAR LAKE
403 AM EST SUN OCT 29 2000

.TODAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING. UP TO 2
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. COLD AND
WINDY. HIGH IN THE MID 30S. NORTH WIND 20 TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW
70 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...THEN A CHANCE OF
SNOW FLURRIES. TOTAL ACCUMULATION...1 TO 3 INCHES. LOW IN THE UPPER
20S. NORTH WIND 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 50 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGH NEAR 40.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE UPPER 20S.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH 45 TO 50.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE 30S AND HIGH NEAR 50.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE 30S AND HIGH IN THE LOWER 50S.

$$

NYZ030-031-034-292030-
SOUTHWEST CLINTON-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN ESSEX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DANNEMORA...LAKE PLACID...TUPPER LAKE
403 AM EST SUN OCT 29 2000

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SNOW FLURRIES...THEN OCCASIONAL SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION BY
LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 3 INCHES. COLD AND WINDY. HIGH NEAR 30. NORTH
WIND 20 TO 30 MPH.
.TONIGHT...OCCASIONAL SNOW...TAPERING OFF TO SNOW FLURRIES LATE THIS
EVENING. TOTAL ACCUMULATION...3 TO 5 INCHES. BRISK. LOW IN THE MID
20S. NORTH WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH IN THE MID 30S.
CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES. LOW IN THE
20S.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH IN THE MID 40S.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE 20S AND HIGH IN THE 40S.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE 20S AND HIGH IN THE UPPER 40S.

$$












   [INLINE]
   _Links - (1) NEW:   [1]EMWIN Information        (2) Graphics
   [2]http://weather.gov _
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 290900
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM EST SAT OCT 29 2000

WILL CONTINUE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES TODAY BUT WILL EXTEND INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. AMOUNTS OF 4-8 IN. GREENS AND NC/NE, 3-5 ADIRONDACKS, 2-4
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY STILL LOOK OK, BUT CONCERNED ABOUT MODEL DEPICTION OF
WEAKENING SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SOUTHWEST AND OCCLUDES LATER TODAY. NGM
MOS POPS QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN NEW AVN GUIDANCE.

A FEW FLURRIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE REPLACED WITH OCCASIONAL
SNOW LATER THIS MORNING AS SAT SHOWS ENHANCE CLD TOPS MOVING SW FROM
E CANADA AND ME. THIS CORRESPONDS WELL WITH MODEL DEPICTION OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT(295K) , CONVERGENCE OF Q, AND 700/500 WAA AS THE MAIN
FORCING FOR LIFT. ALSO NICE PLUME OF PRECIP WATERS > .50 INCHES
ASSOCIATED. SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM THE TERRAIN ON NORTH SLOPES,
BUT NOT A GREAT WIND DIRECTION FOR LIFT IN THE GREENS, MAYBE A BIT
BETTER WITH A NORTH WIND INTO THE ADIRONDACKS.

CONFIDENCE LOW AFTER TODAY IN EXACTLY HOW THING PLAY OUT WITH SFC
AND UPPER LOW.  IT STILL LOOKS TO ME THAT THE SYSTEM DOES ALL ITS
DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND THEN STARTS DECAYING AS SURFACE LOW MOVES
SOUTHEST UNDER THE LOW ALOFT. MODELS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC LIFT OR WAA BEGINNING TONIGHT DESPITE HIGHER
PWATER VALUES. AVN FURTHEST EAST WITH THE SYSTEM BUT DEEPENS A
SECOND LOW BY 60HRS BUT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO CAUSE OUR AREA
MUCH HARM.

EXTENDED SHOULD FEATURE SEASONABLE AND DRY WEATHER UNDER RIDGING
BEHIND THE UPPER LOW...AS LONG AS IT MOVES AWAY.

SISSON

.BTV...
WINTER STORM WARNING INTO THIS EVENING VTZ003-004-006>008-010
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING VTZ001-002-005-NYZ028-030-
031-034-035.

$$







FXUS61 KBTV 290110
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
910 PM EDT SAT OCT 28 2000

PREV FCST HAS DELINEATED THE WINTER WX THREAT AREAS WELL...AND LITTLE
CHGS TO OVERALL PATTERN EXPECTED IN THIS EVES FCST. ONLY MAJOR CHG
WL BE TO CHG WINTER STORM WATCH NC/NE VT TO WINTER STORM WARNING.

EVEN THO THE AVN HAS THE SFC LO SOMEWHAT FURTHER N AND E OF THE ETA
PSN...BOTH MODELS BRING MAX WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ACRS VT DURG SUN WITH
MAX CURVATURE IN SFC ISOBARS. THIS WUD SUPPORT STEADY SNOW FALL IN
NC/NE VT COUPLED WITH UPSLOPE. IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL KEEP 2-4
INCH WORDING BUT MENTION AROUND 6 INCHES IN THE HIER TRRN.

CANADIAN MODEL...WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTANT...APRS TO BE
MORE S WITH SFC SYS THAN AVN MODEL...MORE LIKE THE ETA EXCEPT FURTHER
E THAN THE E. IT HOLDS MAX MOISTURE A BIT FURTHER E...BUT OTHR
PARAMETERS FIT THE ETA/AVN MODEL CONCEPT WITH STEADY SNW ERN VT SUN
INTO ERLY SUN NGT.

BASED ON THESE THOUGHTS...WL MAKE THE CHGS MENTIONED ABV IN FCST
FOR TNGT AND SUNDAY CONCERNING WARNING AREA. OTRW NO CHGS.

OVERALL...THE SYSTEM IS SLO TO MOV AWAY MONDAY SO PRBLY SOME
LINGERING PCPN SPCLY ERN PTNS.

FAR WRN PTN OF FA...ST LAW VLY...MAY SEE LTL PCPN FM THIS SYS.


.BTV...WINTER STORM WARNING SUNDAY VTZ003-004-006>008-010
       WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SUNDAY VTZ001-002-005-NYZ028-030-
       031-034-035.

$$

SFH





FXUS61 KBTV 281850
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
250 PM EDT SAT OCT 28 2000

ETA/NGM IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN RETROGRADING STG STM FM NS THRU GULF
OF ME ON SUNDAY.  THIS WL THROW SNW BACK ACRS FA WITH NE VT LOOKING
LIKE THE BEST CHC FOR WRNG CRITERIA SNW AMTS. WL PUT UP WNTR STM
WTCH THERE AND WNTR WX ADVSRY FOR CHMPLN VLY (MAINLY HIGHER
TERRAIN) AND NRN ADRNDCKS.

WL CONT MNTN OF SNW THRU MON AS LOW HANGS ARND GULF OF ME WHILE
FILLING.  ST LAW VLY MAY SEE SOME DRY WX ON MON.

.BTV...WINTER STORM WATCH SUNDAY VTZ003-004-006>008-010
       WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SUNDAY VTZ001-002-005-NYZ028-030-
       031-034-035.

MCGILL



     This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/emwin/winven.htm
   2. http://weather.gov/iwin/graphics.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html


995
ASUS51 KBTV 291105
SWRVT
ALBSWRVT ALL

VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SUN OCT 29 2000

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-291200-
_____VERMONT_____

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FLURRIES  32  18  56 N18G26    30.14F
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    28  18  66 N13G26    30.09S WCI   9
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    29  17  61 N14G23    30.10F WCI   9
ST. JOHNSBURY  N/A       29  22  75 VRB5      30.04S WCI  29
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    30  18  59 NW10G17   30.08S WCI  16
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    32  18  56 VRB7      30.05S
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    32  18  56 N13G18    30.08S
$$

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX



                        _LSC WEATHER CENTER FORECAST
                 UPDATE: 9:00PM, Saturday October 28, 2000
                      STUDENT METEOROLOGIST: Tim Lopes_
       _** The latest forecast for Northeast & North Central Vermont**
       ** The area bounded by Waterbury, St. Johnsbury, and Newport**_


                _*WINTER STORM WATCH LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY*


   Overnight: Cloudy with the on and off snow showers becoming more
   steady, and picking up in intensity...especially after midnight.
   Blustery with stiff north winds near 15 mph. Lows falling into the
   middle 20's, with wind chills between 5 and 15 above zero.
   Accumulation by morning of an inch or two.

   Sunday: Snow, moderately heavy at times. Continued blustery with north
   winds 15-25 mph with higher gusts. Highs only near 30, with wind
   chills in the single numbers above zero. Total snowfall accumulation
   ranging from 4 to 8 inches.

   Sunday Night: Snow showers early, tapering off to flurries late. Lows
   not falling too much, into the mid-20's, with north winds 10-15 mph.
   An inch or so additional accumulation is possible.

   Monday: Skies will remain mostly cloudy with on and off snow showers,
   possibly mixing with or changing over to rain in the valleys. Highs in
   the upper 30's to around 40.

                             Extended Forecast

   Tuesday: Mostly cloudy continued cool. Highs 39-44.

   Wednesday: Mostly cloudy once again with a morning low near 30, and
   high temperatures in the middle 40's.

   Thursday: Becoming partly cloudy and warmer. Highs approaching 50
   degrees.

                            Forecast Discussion


   Earlier this afternoon, the National Weather Service in Burlington, in
   conjunction with the Gray, ME office, issued a Winter Storm Watch for
   the northeasternmost counties of Vermont, including Caledonia, Exxex,
   Lamoille, Orange, Orleans, and Washington counties. This includes
   Morrisville, St. Johnsbury, Lyndonville, Montpelier, and Island Pond.
   A winter storm watch means within the next 36 hours, these places
   could see snowfall in excess of six inches, or significant icing. The
   gale center off of the coast of Nova Scotia is beginning to head
   towards the Gulf of Maine, and in the upper levels, a packet of energy
   associated with an upper low is currently diving south and east across
   the province of Quebec, on its way to Cape Cod. All the conditions are
   coming together to give those of us here in the Northeast Kingdom our
   first real taste of winter. Snow will begin in earnest later tonight,
   and will accumulate through Sunday night. Accumulations will be
   greatest on north facing slopes with that northerly wind, so places
   like Burke Mountain could see between 6-10 inches of the white stuff.
   But for most of us here in the area, 4-8 inches looks like a good bet,
   with higher amounts to the north and east of the forecast area, and
   lesser amounts to the south and west. Once again, don't forget that
   Daylight Savings Time ends tonight at 2AM, so set your clocks back,
   and enjoy that extra hour of sleep!

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