118 FPUS51 KBTV 080901 ZFPBTV ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 400 AM EST THU MAR 8 2001 VTZ001-002-005-009-NYZ028-035-082100- ADDISON-CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ESSEX-FRANKLIN-GRAND ISLE- NORTHEAST CLINTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BURLINGTON...MIDDLEBURY...PLATTSBURGH... SOUTH HERO...ST. ALBANS...TICONDEROGA 400 AM EST THU MAR 8 2001 .TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE. HIGH IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH. .TONIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FROM LATE EVENING ON. LOW IN THE MID 20S. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 50 PERCENT. .FRIDAY...OCCASIONAL SNOW. HIGH IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. .EXTENDED FORECAST... .FRIDAY NIGHT...SNOW. LOW IN THE MID 20S. .SATURDAY...SNOW LIKELY EARLY...TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH 30 TO 35. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOW IN THE TEENS AND HIGH 30 TO 35. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW 15 TO 20 AND HIGH IN THE 30S. .TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN. LOW IN THE 20S. HIGH IN THE 30S. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW 15 TO 25. HIGH IN THE 30S. $$ VTZ003-004-006>008-010-082100- CALEDONIA-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISLAND POND...MONTPELIER...NEWPORT... RANDOLPH...ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE 400 AM EST THU MAR 8 2001 .TODAY... PATCHY FOG EARLY...OTHERWISE PARTLY SUNNY. BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE. HIGH IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH. .TONIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW 20 TO 25. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 50 PERCENT. .FRIDAY...OCCASIONAL SNOW. HIGH IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. .EXTENDED FORECAST... .FRIDAY NIGHT...SNOW. LOW 20 TO 25. .SATURDAY...SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING...TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH 30 TO 35. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOW IN THE TEENS AND HIGH 30 TO 35. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE TEENS AND HIGH IN THE 30S. .TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN. LOW IN THE 20S. HIGH IN THE 30S. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW 15 TO 25. HIGH IN THE 30S. $$ VTZ011-012-082100- RUTLAND-WINDSOR- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD 400 AM EST THU MAR 8 2001 .TODAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY...OTHERWISE PARTLY SUNNY. BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE. HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH. .TONIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FROM LATE EVENING ON. LOW 20 TO 25. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 50 PERCENT. .FRIDAY...OCCASIONAL SNOW. HIGH IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. .EXTENDED FORECAST... .FRIDAY NIGHT...OCCASIONAL SNOW. LOW IN THE MID 20S. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. HIGH 30 TO 35. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOW IN THE TEENS AND HIGH 30 TO 35. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW 15 TO 20 AND HIGH 35 TO 40. .TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN. LOW IN THE 20S. HIGH IN THE 30S. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW 15 TO 25. HIGH IN THE 30S. $$ NYZ026-027-082100- NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MALONE...MASSENA 400 AM EST THU MAR 8 2001 .TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY EARLY...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES LATE. HIGH IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. LIGHT WIND BECOMING EAST 5 TO 10 MPH. .TONIGHT...LIGHT SNOW LIKELY. AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOW IN THE MID 20S. EAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. .FRIDAY...OCCASIONAL SNOW. HIGH IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. .EXTENDED FORECAST... .FRIDAY NIGHT...SNOW. LOW IN THE LOWER 20S. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. HIGH 30 TO 35. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOW IN THE TEENS AND HIGH 30 TO 35. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW 15 TO 20 AND HIGH IN THE 30S. .TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN. LOW IN THE 20S. HIGH IN THE 30S. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW 15 TO 25. HIGH IN THE 30S. $$ NYZ029>031-034-082100- SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHWEST CLINTON- WESTERN ESSEX- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DANNEMORA...LAKE PLACID...STAR LAKE... TUPPER LAKE 400 AM EST THU MAR 8 2001 .TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY EARLY...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES LATE. HIGH IN THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH. .TONIGHT...LIGHT SNOW LIKELY. AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOW 20 TO 25. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. .FRIDAY...OCCASIONAL SNOW. HIGH NEAR 30. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. .EXTENDED FORECAST... .FRIDAY NIGHT...SNOW. LOW AROUND 20. .SATURDAY...SNOW LIKELY EARLY...TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH NEAR 30. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOW 10 TO 15 AND HIGH NEAR 30. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE TEENS AND HIGH IN THE 30S. .TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN. LOW IN THE 20S. HIGH IN THE 30S. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW 15 TO 25. HIGH IN THE 30S. $$ REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html [smwthr.gif] Texas Emergency Information: [2]HERE Emergency Managers go: [3]HERE _________________________________________________________________ FXUS61 KBTV 080851 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 350 AM EST THU MAR 8 2001 ALY/GYX WL BE PROVDG BACK-UP FOR BTV STARTING ARND 645 AM AS WE UPGRADE TO BUILD 5. COORD WITH ALY ON UPCOMING STORM. SHORT TERM...BAND OF CI WL BE MVG E OF RGN NXT FEW HRS BUT FAIRLY LRG SC FIELD LURKING ACRS CNTRL/W NY AND SLOWLY MVG EWD. THESE CLDS WL BE MVG ACRS W ZNS THIS MRNG BUT THINK E ZNS WL SEE SUN THRU ERLY AFTN BFR CLDS DEVP/MOV IN. 2M/BL TMPS SUPPORT MAX TMPS OF A COUPLE DGRS HIR THAN YDA WHICH PUTS AREA INTO 30S. LONGER TERM...POTENT UL LOW DROPPING SE FM GT LKS RGN WITH ASSCD STG S/WV AND LEFT EXIT RGN OF UPR JET WL RSLT IN SCNDRY LOW DEVT ALG MID ATL CST ERLY FRI. ETA SMLR TO LAST NGT/S RUN IN DEPICTING MULTIPLE WK LOWS. THIS LOOKS A BIT ODD SO WL GO WITH AVN SOLN WHICH IS SHWG GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY INDCTG ONE MAIN LOW DEVPG ALG BAROCLONIC ZN INVOF NJ. WKNG PRIMARY LOW WL LKLY SPRD SOME LGT SNW ACRS RGN TNGT...ESP W ZNS WITH BEST SNWS OCCURRING MAINLY FRI AFTN INTO SAT MRNG AS SCNDRY LOW TRACKS INLAND ACRS SNE THEN INTO GULF OF ME. AVN 24H QPF THRU 12Z SAT SHWS WDSPRD 1/2"+ ACRS MCH OF FA WITH MAX QPF ARND 0.8". PW/S RMN BLO 0.4" FOR EVENT SO THIS LOOKS OVRDONE... BUT STG UVV ASSCD WITH ISEN LIFT N OF LOW ALG WITH DEEPENING LOW AND FVRBL H8 LOW TRACK ACRS CNTRL NEW ENG SUGGESTS A MOD SNW EVENT ACRS FA. LOOKING AT AVG QPF 1/4"-1/2" WHICH WUD SUGGEST A STG ADVSY OR MRGNL WRNG EVENT FRI AFTN/NGT. WL HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES ATTM AS EVENT IS MRGNL WITH BULK OF QPF LT 3RD INTO 4TH PD AND MDLS NOT ALL ON THE SAME PAGE WITH THIS. WL UPDATE SPS WHICH WAS ISSUED YDA. XTNDD...STG S/WV MVG ACRS RGN WL BRING SOME SNW SHWRS ON SUN...DRY MON AS RDG MVS INTO RGN. NEW MRF SHWS NXT SYS TRACKING N OF RGN SO ADDED RA TO TUE FCST. .BTV...NONE. KJC FXUS61 KBTV 080138 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 838 PM EST WED MAR 7 2001 WILL OPT TO UPDATE ZFP TO MAKE A FEW CHANGES TO MOSTLY THE FIRST PERIOD. SFC/UPR RIDGE TO CREST OVER THE FA TONITE...AS A STORM SYS SLOWLY DROPS DOWN ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION AND ONT. THIS SFC/UPR RIDGE TO START TO MOVE OUT TO SEA TO THE EAST OF THE FA ON THU...AS THE NEXT STORM SYS (AT THE SFC AND ALOFT) CONTINUES TO DROP DOWN ACRS ONT AND THE GREAT LKS REGION. ANOTHER STORM SYS TO DEVELOP ACRS THE SE U.S. BY LATER ON THU AS WELL. TROP FOLD/UPR LOW TO DROP DOWN ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION TONITE AND ON THU. 21Z 40KM FSL RUC SHOWS TEMPS TO GET DOWN INTO THE UPR SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS TONITE WITH LT WINDS. T1MIN TEMPS ARE AROUND 20 DEG F TONITE. THESE TEMPS SEEMS A TAD HI GIVEN CURRENT OBS TRENDS. IR SAT PIX SHOW HI CLDS MOVING IN ACRS THE FA FROM THE WEST ATTM. WITH FRESH SN COVER AND LT WINDS WOULD EXPECT TEMPS TO CONT TO TUMBLE...BUT HIR CLDS MAY ACT TO DAMPEN SOME OF THAT OUT. WILL BUMP OVRNITE LOW TEMPS UP A TAD OR WIDEN SOME OF THE RANGES. LOW-LVLS AND MID-LVLS TO REMAIN DRY ACRS THE FA TONITE. RUC VSBYS HINTING AT FG LATE TONITE ACRS THE CHAMP VLY AND NE VT...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON INCLUDING THIS WITH HIR CLDS EXPECTED TO BE OVERHEAD FOR THE OVRNITE. H85 NEUTRAL ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TONITE...THEN WK WAA FOR THU. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO REMAIN HI ACRS THE FA TONITE AND ON THU. LOW-LVL MOISTURE TO START TO MOVE INTO NRN NY STATE BY LATE ON THU WITH WK LOW-LVL MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. MID-LVL MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACRS NY STATE BY LATER ON THU AS WELL. PCPN TO STAY TO THE WEST OF THE FA ON THU THOUGH. PW VALUES WITH THIS NEXT SYS APPEAR TO BE A PIDDLY 0.25". HAVE ADDED SOME MORE CLDS TO THE OVRNITE PERIOD. TWEAKED FIRST PERIOD WINDS TO KEEP THINGS CURRENT. MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE SECOND PERIOD TO MAKE IT MESH BETTER WITH THE FIRST PERIOD. OTRW...REMAINING CHANGES TO GOING ZFP COSMETIC. WORK ZONES OUT UNDER ALBWRKCWF. FINAL ZFP BY 915 PM AFTER A QUICK LOOK AT THE LATEST OBS AND LAMP DATA. .BTV...NONE. MURRAY FXUS61 KBTV 071958 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 258 PM EST WED MAR 7 2001 IT TOOK A WHILE...BUT APPARENTLY THERE WAS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAS ENHANCED BY THE STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT DEVELOPED THROUGHOUT THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. STABILIZING LAPSE RATES TONIGHT WILL HELP TO DIMINISH ANY CLOUD COVER AND SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP AND THIS WILL HELP TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL RAPIDLY LATER TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF SINGLE DIGITS WITH SOME AREAS IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST VERMONT GOING BELOW ZERO. NOT SURE IF MOS KNOWS THERE IS NOW A SUBSTANTIAL SNOWPACK OVER THE REGION AND CONTINUES TO FORECAST RELATIVELY WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. ON THURSDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA...WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND GRADUALLY MOVE EAST. FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS GENERATED FROM THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INITIALLY MOVE NORTHWARD BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD. THUS IT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA FROM THE MID SHIFT AND GO WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FROM LATE EVENING ON IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS VERMONT. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH A BETTER PART OF THE DAY BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP AND HELP TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. THIS PUTS MOST AREAS IN THE 30 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA... LOW PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF LONG ISLAND/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IT WOULD BE AT THIS TIME THAT THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WOULD FINALLY TAP SOME DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW. SINCE THE LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD...THE SNOW THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. 850/700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IS MAXIMIZED JUST TO OUR SOUTH...BUT DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ENHANCE THE VERTICAL MOTION FIELD OVER THE REGION. THUS WOULD EXPECT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS...BUT NOTHING OF THE MAGNITUDE OF THE LAST EVENT. WILL GO WITH SNOW LIKELY ON FRIDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING TO SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO THE EAST. COORDINATED WITH ALBANY AND WE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPCOMING SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. ALSO LIKE THE IDEA OF GOING WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO INDICATE THIS EVENT WILL PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS...BUT IS NOT A NOREASTER LIKE THE LAST EVENT. THIS WILL MESH WELL WITH THE UPCOMING SPS FROM ALBANY WHICH SHOULD HAVE EASTERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT SAYING THE SAME THING FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT. IN THE EXTENDED...DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS IN BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH ON SUNDAY BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION FOR LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE SUBSTANTIAL DRYING TO TAKE PLACE ON MONDAY BUT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO MOVE IN ON TUESDAY FOR ANOTHER THREAT OF SNOW...THEN DRYING FOLLOWS THAT FOR WEDNESDAY. WORK ZONES IN ALBWRKCWF BY 300 PM. ALBSPSBTV TO BE ISSUED BY 400 PM FOR UPCOMING SNOW EVENT FRIDAY/SATURDAY. EVENSON .BTV...NONE. This data is from the [4]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information Network) References 1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html 2. http://emwin.hcad.org/ 3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/emwin/winven.htm 4. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html 166 ASUS51 KBTV 081105 SWRVT ALBSWRVT ALL VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 600 AM EST THU MAR 8 2001 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. VTZ001>014-081200- _____VERMONT_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURLINGTON PTCLDY 11 7 84 CALM 29.99S MONTPELIER FOG 6 4 91 CALM 29.99R VSB 1/4 MORRISVILLE MOCLDY -1 -6 79 CALM 30.00R RUTLAND CLOUDY 16 12 86 SE3 29.96S SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 14 13 95 CALM 30.00R BENNINGTON CLOUDY 17 15 92 CALM 29.97R $$ ______KEY______ VSB - VISIBILITY IN MILES WCI - WIND CHILL INDEX HX - HEAT INDEX LSC WEATHER CENTER FORECAST 4:30PM Wednesday March 7, 2001 STUDENT METEOROLOGIST: Daryl Caver ** The latest forecast for Northeast & North Central Vermont** ** The area bounded by Waterbury, St. Johnsbury, and Newport** Wednesday Night: Mostly clear skies. North wind at 5-10mph, then becoming light and variable overnight. Lows will be -5 to 5. Thursday: Another warm and sunny day. Highs in the upper 30's to mid 40's. Thursday Night: Clouds will be on the increase. 40% chance of snow after midnight. Lows in the lower 10's. Friday: Snow will fall throughout the day. Highs in the mid 30's. Lows in the mid 10's. Extended Forecast Saturday: Snow will continue in the morning and then taper off to snow showers by the afternoon. Highs in the 30's. Lows in the 10's. Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. Chance for some snow late in the evening. Highs in the 30's. Lows in 20's. Monday: Partly sunny. Highs near 40. Lows near 20. Forecast Discussion By Friday another system will be forming off the Southern New England coast. Right now it appears that it will remain far enough out to sea and will form far enough up the coast that we will see some accumulating snow, but certainly not like anything we saw this past Monday and Tuesday from the Noreaster. Remember we only picked up 6 inches in the St. Johnsbury but Newport and Morrisville picked up around 20 inches. I certainly don't think that we will see those kind of snow totals from this storm on Friday, but I wouldn't be surprised to see us pick up another 6 inches of snow. It is possible that the storm may deviate from its track or may be more intense than expected and bring more snow, but as of right now i think that will be highly unlikely. So make sure you get out and enjoy the warm weather tomorrow as it appears more snow is on the way. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html