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170
FPUS51 KBTV 250802
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM EDT WED JUL 25 2001

VTZ001-002-005-009-NYZ028-035-252000-
ADDISON-CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ESSEX-FRANKLIN-GRAND ISLE-
NORTHEAST CLINTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BURLINGTON...MIDDLEBURY...PLATTSBURGH...
SOUTH HERO...ST. ALBANS...TICONDEROGA
400 AM EDT WED JUL 25 2001

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE LOWER 80S. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15
MPH.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW IN THE MID 50S. NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10
MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH AROUND 70.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOW 45 TO 50.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGH AROUND 70.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW NEAR 50 AND HIGH IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE 50S AND HIGH 75 TO 80.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOW IN THE 50S AND HIGH 75 TO 80.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOW FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S AND HIGH AROUND 80.

$$

VTZ003-004-006>008-010-252000-
CALEDONIA-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISLAND POND...MONTPELIER...NEWPORT...
RANDOLPH...ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE
400 AM EDT WED JUL 25 2001

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH NEAR 80. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW 50 TO 55. LIGHT NORTH WIND.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH NEAR 70.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOW FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGH AROUND 70.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW NEAR 50 AND HIGH IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE 50S AND HIGH 75 TO 80.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOW IN THE 50S AND HIGH 75 TO 80.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOW FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S AND HIGH AROUND 80.

$$

VTZ011-012-252000-
RUTLAND-WINDSOR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD
400 AM EDT WED JUL 25 2001

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE MID 80S. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15
MPH.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. NORTH WIND 5
TO 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH AROUND 70.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOW 40 TO 45.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGH AROUND 70.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW NEAR 50 AND HIGH IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE 50S AND HIGH 75 TO 80.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOW IN THE 50S AND HIGH 75 TO 80.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOW FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S AND HIGH AROUND 80.

$$

NYZ026-027-252000-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MALONE...MASSENA
400 AM EDT WED JUL 25 2001

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH NEAR 80. WEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW 50 TO 55. WEST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH BECOMING
NORTH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH NEAR 70.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOW 45 TO 50.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGH AROUND 70.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW NEAR 50 AND HIGH IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE 50S AND HIGH 75 TO 80.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOW IN THE 50S AND HIGH 75 TO 80.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOW FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S AND HIGH AROUND 80.

$$

NYZ029>031-034-252000-
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHWEST CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DANNEMORA...LAKE PLACID...STAR LAKE...
TUPPER LAKE
400 AM EDT WED JUL 25 2001

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE MID 70S. WEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTH WIND 5 TO 10
MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE UPPER 60S.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOW FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGH IN THE UPPER 60S.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW IN THE 40S AND HIGH NEAR 70.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE MID 40S AND HIGH IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOW AROUND 50 AND HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOW 55 TO 60 AND HIGH IN THE UPPER 70S.

$$

SISSON










   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

   [smwthr.gif]

Texas Emergency Information:   [2]HERE   Emergency Managers go:   [3]HERE

     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 250704
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
304 AM EDT WED JUL 25 2001

DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND.

TODAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE NORMAL RANGE AS COLDER AIR WILL
MAKE SEVERAL SURGES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. SHALLOW COOL AIR WILL
BE HEATED FAIRLY QUICKLY TODAY FROM BTV POINTS S AND E. THAT MEANS
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S AT BTV TO MID 80S AT VSF. AT SLK
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 70S AND MSS UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTH THIS EVENING AND RISING SFC PRESSURES
TONIGHT SHOULD BRING THE MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. WEAK WAVE
OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND MAY BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN ZONES.
CLEAR NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE CONT TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 7OS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND CT VLYS.

A VERY COOL NIGHT IN STORE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SLK MADE IT DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S AS SUGGESTED BY
ETA 2M DEWPTS. ELSEWHERE 40S SHOULD DO IT AND COULD BE NEAR RECORD
VALUES. 850 TEMPERATURES ARE 2-3 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL(-4C) AND SFC
PRESSURE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEV ABV NORMAL(>1024MB).

RECORD LOWS FOR JUL 27:
BTV                  47/1936
MPV                  42/1956
MSS                  45/1965

OTHERS FROM NWS COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS:
...NY....
 LAKE_PLACID         36/1977
 WANAKENA            35/1977
 PLATTSBURGH         49/1956
 CANTON              38/1977
...VT....
 WEST_BURKE          39/1966
 WOODSTOCK           37/1977
 CHELSEA             37/1977
 CORNWALL            42/1977
 NEWPORT             42/1956


THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR RETURNING
WARM FRONTAL WAVE AS NOW DEPICTED BY AVN WHICH IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS ECMWF...BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. THINK IT BEST
TO PUT MENTION OF SHOWERS IN FOR LATE SUN/MONDAY AT THIS POINT.
A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AND NEXT
WEEK.

.BTV...NONE.

SISSON






FXUS61 KBTV 250112
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
911 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2001

AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS REPORT PTLY CLDY SKIES ACRS NRN NY WITH W TO
NW WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE 80S AT 7PM. OTRW...SATL AND RADR SHOW
MAIN BUT WK CNVTN EXITING WINDSOR CNTY. EARLIER A HALF INCH OF
RAIN FELL IN NEWPORT IN NRN VT...WITH GNRLY LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH IN OTHER WDLY SCT TSTMS.

LAPS SHOWS THE DEMARCATION LN OR CHG TO DRIER AIR IS ACRS EXTRM SRN
ONT CANADA ATTM. DEW AT MSS 72 WHILE YOW IS 59. THERE IS DEW PT
POOLING IN THE ST LAW AND CHAMPLN VALLEY REGIONS...BUT THE DRIER AIR
WILL GRDLY FILTER IN AFTR MIDN...BUT THE REALLY COOLER AIR WL PRBLY
WAIT TIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ATTM...ISOLD SHWRS NOTED IN NRN NY AND NRN GREEN MTNS OF VT. THESE
SHUD DSPT BY 10 PM UPDATE TIME SO WL REMOVE MENTION OF PCPN OVRNGT
...EXCPT LV CHC BRF SHWR N CNTRL AND NE VT TIL LATE...OTRW FCST
ON TARGET AND PTLY CLDY SHUD SUFFICE OVRNGT.


.BTV...NONE.

SFH






FXUS61 KBTV 241750
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
150 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2001

AS MENTIONED IN THE LATE MORNING DISCUSSION...FORECAST COMPOSITE
CHART STILL FOCUSES MAIN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE THREAT NORTH OF THE
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/RESULTING INSTABILITY IS CONFINED TO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
QUEBEC.  THIS IS IN THE 500 MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH -4 TO -5C
500 MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR IN STEEPENING THE LAPSE RATES.  LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S AND DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70.  INSTABILITY WILL
THEREFORE BE SUFFICIENT TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION.
CLOUD BAND FROM OTTAWA TO BUFFALO STILL TRYING TO BE THE AREA WHERE
CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED WITH DEVELOPMENT NOW OCCURRING OVER
SOUTHWEST QUEBEC AND EXTREME NORTHERN NEW YORK.  DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...15 M/S IN THE 0-6KM LAYER...EXISTS OVER THE REGION WITH
VALUES INCREASING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER LATER TODAY TO 20 M/S.
NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE BEHIND THE CLOUD BAND DESCRIBED ABOVE STILL
EXISTS OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WITH NOTICEABLE DRYING TAKING PLACE
OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.  SO STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF REDEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA AND WITH
GREATER SPEED SHEAR AND SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT IN RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER CANADA...THREAT FOR CONVECTION MAY GO INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.  THUS WILL INCLUDE IN THE EVENING PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WITH SKIES THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.

IT THEN APPEARS WE ARE IN FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRIER NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.  CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
SUGGESTS COLDER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS AS DEW
POINTS EVENTUALLY FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BACK TO SEASON NORMALS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
AREA ON THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AIR AND START A TREND OF WARMER
DAYS WITH FORECAST AREA GETTING BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY SUNDAY.
LATTER PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED HAVE FLOW GRADUALLY BACKING TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME PERIOD.  WITH THIS
TREND IN THE FLOW...LONG RANGE MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST COULD MAKE IT INTO THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY
PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.  ALSO WITH FLOW BACKING TO THE
SOUTHWEST...SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WOULD SLOW ENOUGH TO REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY AND KEEP THREAT OF CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THUS THE DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE
EXTENDED TIME PERIOD.

FIRE WEATHER:  TRENDS IN KEETCH-BYRUM DROUGHT INDEX VALUES CONTINUE
TO RISE ABOVE 300.  THIS COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT NO
PRECIPITATION HAS OCCURRED SINCE THE 17TH AND NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUGGESTS
LONG TERM DRYING EFFECTS ARE GETTING ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION.
LOW 1 AND 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURES ALSO EXIST OVER THE REGION.  THUS
THE WEATHER ELEMENTS OF MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND SURFACE WINDS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS.  AS OF RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS THAT MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW ANY CRITICAL VALUES AND
WINDS SPEEDS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN BELOW ANY CRITICAL VALUES.  BUT A
HEIGHTENED AWARENESS OF LONG TERM DRYING EFFECTS BECOMING
ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION IS WARRANTED.

WORK ZONES IN ALBWRKCWF BY 300 PM.

EVENSON

.BTV...NONE.











   This data is from the [4]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://emwin.hcad.org/
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/emwin/winven.htm
   4. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

342
ASUS51 KBTV 251105
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
700 AM EDT WED JUL 25 2001

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-251200-
_____VERMONT_____

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      68  60  75 S3        29.79R
MONTPELIER     FAIR      71  59  65 N5        29.85R
MORRISVILLE    FAIR      69  60  73 CALM      29.81R
ST. JOHNSBURY  N/A       67  65  93 CALM      29.77S
RUTLAND        FAIR      70  64  83 CALM      29.82S
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      73  66  78 CALM      29.82R
BENNINGTON     FAIR      71  65  81 SW5       29.86R
$$

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX

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