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971
FPUS51 KBTV 200712
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
312 AM EDT SAT OCT 20 2001

NYZ028-035-VTZ001>010-202000-
ADDISON-CALEDONIA-CHITTENDEN-E ESSEX NY-ESSEX VT-FRANKLIN VT-
GRAND ISLE-LAMOILLE-NE CLINTON-ORANGE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BURLINGTON...ISLAND POND...MIDDLEBURY...
MONTPELIER...NEWPORT...PLATTSBURGH...RANDOLPH...SOUTH HERO...
ST. ALBANS...ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE...TICONDEROGA
312 AM EDT SAT OCT 20 2001

.TODAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THIS MORNING...THEN PARTLY
SUNNY. HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S. SOUTH
WIND 5 TO 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY...THEN INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...OTHERWISE PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOW IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE UPPER 50S.
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE UPPER 30S.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM EARLY AFTERNOON
ON. HIGH 55 TO 60.
.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BOTH DAYS. LOWS 45 TO
50. HIGHS AROUND 60.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOW 40 TO 45. HIGH IN THE MID 50S.

$$

VTZ011-012-202000-
RUTLAND-WINDSOR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD
312 AM EDT SAT OCT 20 2001

.TODAY...A CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING SPRINKLES...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY BY MID MORNING. HIGH AROUND 60. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW AROUND 40. LIGHT WIND.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WIND 10 TO
15 MPH.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE LOWER 40S.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH AROUND 60.
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE UPPER 30S.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM EARLY AFTERNOON
ON. HIGH 55 TO 60.
.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BOTH DAYS. LOWS 45 TO
50. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOW 40 TO 45. HIGH IN THE MID 50S.

$$

NYZ026-027-202000-
N FRANKLIN NY-N ST LAWRENCE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MALONE...MASSENA
312 AM EDT SAT OCT 20 2001

.TODAY...A CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING SPRINKLES...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY BY MID MORNING. HIGH IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15
MPH.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10
MPH.
.SUNDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SHOWERS LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE
OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY...OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY.
LOW IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE UPPER 50S.
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE UPPER 30S.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM EARLY AFTERNOON
ON. HIGH 55 TO 60.
.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BOTH DAYS. LOWS 45 TO
50. HIGHS AROUND 60.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOW 40 TO 45. HIGH IN THE MID 50S.

$$

NYZ029>031-034-202000-
S FRANKLIN NY-S ST LAWRENCE-SW CLINTON-W ESSEX NY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DANNEMORA...LAKE PLACID...STAR LAKE...
TUPPER LAKE
312 AM EDT SAT OCT 20 2001

.TODAY...A CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING SPRINKLES...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY BY MIDDAY. HIGH IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW 35 TO 40. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SHOWERS LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE
OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY...OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY.
LOW AROUND 40. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE MID 50S.
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE 30S.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM EARLY AFTERNOON
ON. HIGH IN THE MID 50S.
.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BOTH DAYS. LOWS 40 TO
45. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOW 35 TO 40. HIGH IN THE LOWER 50S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

   [smwthr.gif]

Texas Emergency Information:   [2]HERE   Emergency Managers go:   [3]HERE

     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 200643
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
245 AM EDT SAT OCT 20 2001

SHORT RANGE...FAIR AMOUNT OF COOLING ALOFT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES.  ETA 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES APPROACH 7C/KM OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...SERIOUS DEARTH OF MOISTURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.  SOME COLD AIR CUMULUS LIKELY
TODAY...BUT EXPECT MAINLY VIRGA OR SPRINKLES WITH SUCH DRY AIR BELOW
700 MB.  HAVE OPTED TO FOLLOW ETA FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE...AVN SEEMS
TOO MOIST YET AGAIN BOTH FOR TODAY AND FOR SUNDAY.  MAX TEMPERATURES
TODAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN FRIDAY (1-4F) GIVEN COOLING
ALOFT.  AFTER A QUIESCENT AND MILD SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE.  THIS
SHOULD PUSH SUNDAY'S MAX TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO FRIDAY'S READINGS...
BUT CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH TRACKS THROUGH
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  HAVE UPPED ADIRONDACKS AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY POPS SUNDAY TO LIKELY...WITH AFTERNOON CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT.
WARM ADVECTION AND SURFACE TROUGH RAPIDLY EJECT NORTHEASTWARD BY 06
UTC MONDAY...SO HAVE ONLY KEPT EVENING CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN ZONES...
AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST.  SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THIS ENTIRE EVENT.  NOT MUCH OF A COOLDOWN ON MONDAY BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...WITH MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM FORECAST TO
TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WHICH WILL LIMIT THE COLD
ADVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA.

MEDIUM RANGE...NEW AVN RUN SHOWS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO
TRACK TO OUR WEST...BRINGING SOME WARM ADVECTION RAINFALL ON
TUESDAY...BUT A MORE MOISTURE-LADEN COLD FRONT FOLLOWING BEHIND IT
ON WEDNESDAY.  GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED SO AM NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY UPDATES TO EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

ST. JEAN

.BTV...NONE.






FXUS61 KBTV 200143
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
942 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2001

CURRENTLY...WEAK SURFACE TROF/OCCLUDED FRONT LIMPING THROUGH ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH ONLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF MASSENA AT THIS TIME.
FRONTOLYSIS SHOULD CONTINUE...AND WITH LITTLE IF ANY UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...HAVE OPTED TO DROP SHOWERS AND GO WITH SPRINKLES. HAVE
BROADENED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...AND DROPPED WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES DUE TO PROXIMITY OF BOUNDARY.

REST OF FORECAST UNCHANGED. FAST ZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF
QUASI-STATIONARY JAMES BAY POLAR LOW WILL SHOOT A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING LATE SUNDAY.

UPDATED ZONES NO LATER THAN 945 PM.

GOFF/EVENSON

.BTV...NONE.








FXUS61 KBTV 191947
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
346 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2001

ZONAL FLOW AND FLAT WEAK S/WVS MEANS WEAK FRONTS AND ONLY BRIEF
PERIODS OF CHC SHOWERS UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK.  EXPECT
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL OR MILDER...AND TOTAL QPF BELOW
NORMAL.

ZONES ARE IN ONLY 3 GROUPS...WITH THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST
LAWRENCE VLYS TOGETHER AND THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NCNTRL/NERN VT TOGETHER.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED GUIDANCE OF 12Z AVN THROUGH 120 HOURS.

SPECIFICALLY...

TONIGHT...ONLY CHC POPS LATE TONIGHT IN NRN PTN OF FCST AREA.
REMAINING BREEZY AND A BIT MILDER THAN GUIDANCE.

SATURDAY...DRY BUT A BIT COOLER THAN GUIDANCE CONSIDERING THE FCST
COOLING AT H8.

SUNDAY...BECOMING BREEZY LATE WITH CHC SHOWERS AFTN THRU EARLY
NGT.  AGAIN...A BIT COOLER THAN GUIDANCE...BASED ON H8
TEMPS.

MONDAY...I'LL GO FOR DRY...THOUGH SLIGHT CHC SHOWER NRN AREAS IN
WEAK OVRRNG.  DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...COULD BE ONLY AROUND 50
IN NRN AREAS.

TUESDAY...CHC OVRRNG SHOWERS...BUT BECOMING MILDER LATE IN THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...APCHG AND STALLING FRONT WITH BREEZY AND
MILD CONDITIONS WITH CHC SHOWERS.

FRIDAY...NRN STREAM COOL FRONT MAY HAVE PASSED...LKLY DRY AS WE
AWAIT AMPLIFYING DVLPMT FROM SRN STREAM.


.BTV...NONE.

BELL





   This data is from the [4]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://emwin.hcad.org/
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/emwin/winven.htm
   4. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

992
ASUS51 KBTV 201005
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600  AM EDT SAT OCT 20 2001

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-201100-
_____VERMONT_____

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     DRIZZLE   53  38  56 S13       29.92R
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    45  37  73 VRB5      29.98R
MORRISVILLE    LGT RAIN  45  41  86 CALM      29.95R
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     43  32  65 CALM      29.94R
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    45  36  70 SE6       29.97R
SPRINGFIELD    PTCLDY    37  36  96 CALM      30.00R
BENNINGTON     PTCLDY    41  37  86 CALM      29.98R
$$

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX



                        LSC WEATHER CENTER FORECAST
               [1]Lyndon State College Meteorology Home Page
                      5:00 PM, Friday October 19, 2001
                    STUDENT METEOROLOGIST: Matthew Lagor
       ** The latest forecast for Northeast & North Central Vermont**
       ** The area bounded by Waterbury, St. Johnsbury, and Newport**

   Tonight: Look for partly cloudy skies with a chance for a few
   scattered showers. Low temperatures will be in the upper 30's to lower
   40's. Winds will be from the south and may be gusty at times between
   5-15 mph.

   Saturday: Clouds will cover most of the area but temperatures will
   remain above normal with expected highs to be in the upper 50's.

   Saturday Night: Clouds will begin to break leading to a chilly start
   to Sunday. Low temperatures will be in the upper 30 and winds will be
   light from from the north. Look for some patchy fog and frost to
   develop in the lower elevations.

   Sunday: A beautiful autumn day with partly sunny skies and expected
   highs in the upper 50's.

                             Extended Forecast

   Monday: An upper level trough will move into the area providing mostly
   cloudy skies and a chance of showers with expected highs to be in the
   upper 50's.

   Tuesday: The cloudy weather looks as if it will stick around for a
   while. again expect partly cloudy skies with high temperatures to be
   in the mid 50's and low temperatures to be in the upper 30's.

   Wednesday: Chance of showers for much of the Northeast with some
   milder temperatures. Lows in the mid to upper 40's and highs in the
   upper 50's lower 60's.

                            Forecast Discussion

   Currently there is a fairly dominant high pressure system located over
   the Carolina which is controlling the weather condition for most of
   the eastern seaboard. This high pressure is backed by a long trailing
   cold front associated with a weak low pressure system. So as the high
   continues to move offshore, expect the cold front to move in late
   Saturday night. This low pressure doesn't have the strength to drag
   sufficient amounts of moisture to produce any threat of heavy rain in
   our area. Leading into Sunday, the low will continue to move eastward
   allowing the skies to clear up and provide some warmer temperatures.
   Unfortunatley the sunny weather won't be around too long for an upper
   level trough is expected to move into the area late Sunday night to
   early Monday morning. This slow moving trough is expected control the
   local weather extending into late Wednesday night. So as a result we
   can expect mostly to partly cloudy skies with a chance of showers on
   Monday and Wednesday. If there is one benefit from the cloudy weather
   is that temperatures will remain above average for this time of year.
   For most of the week we can expect high temperatures to be in the mid
   to upper 50's and lows in the low to mid 40's. So Sunday looks as if
   it will be the best day for any outdoor activity for the next few days
   so go out and enjoy yourself.

References

   1. http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/

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