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Expires:200209052000;;935416
FPUS51 KBTV 050658
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 AM EDT THU SEP 5 2002


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-052000-
CALEDONIA VT-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE VT-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT-WASHINGTON VT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISLAND POND VT...MONTPELIER VT...
NEWPORT VT...RANDOLPH VT...ST. JOHNSBURY VT...STOWE VT
300 AM EDT THU SEP 5 2002

.TODAY...BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY MIDDAY. HIGH 65 TO 70. NORTHWEST
WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.
.TONIGHT...CLEAR WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE. LOW FROM THE MID
30S TO THE LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH DIMINISHING TO
LIGHT.
.FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGH IN THE MID 70S. LIGHT WEST WIND.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW 45 TO 50.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH NEAR 80.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE LOWER 50S.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH 80 TO 85.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW IN THE LOWER
50S AND HIGH IN THE UPPER 70S.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE LOWER 50S AND HIGH IN THE UPPER
70S.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE UPPER 40S AND HIGH IN THE
LOWER 70S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 050507
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
105 AM EDT THU SEP 5 2002

...WEEKEND WARM-UP LOOKING MORE PROMISING...

FCST DILEMMA/PRBLM: SAME AS YDY AT THIS TIME...SEE LONGER TERM
PORTION OF DISC.

CRNT: ULVL S/W AND LLVL MOISTURE MVG ACRS FA ATTM WITH LOTS OF
SC/CU BUT KCXX AND BUFCAN QUIET. MAIN CAA AND DRIER AIR STL N OF
CNDN BDR BUT WL ARRIVE BY DAWN AND THROUGHOUT TDY AS S/W PASSES
E OF FA.

SHORT TERM: PTLY/MSTLY CLDY THIS MRNG BUT AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN
ALG WITH STEEP LLVL ACCNT FOR GOOD MIXING THEN INCRSG SS TO MSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY AFTN. MIXING WL CREATE BRISK CONDS OF 10-20 MPH
PERHAPS LOCALLY 25 MPH NEAR WRMR/UNSTABLE LAKESHORE.

TNGT: AS ADVERTISED...SFC HIGH SETTLES ACRS FA WITH LGT/CALM WNDS
AND MUCH DRIER AIR FOR XCLNT RAD COOLING. SOME ISOLD MTN VLYS WL
DROP INTO M-U30S BUT TD STL IN 40S AND WRM GRND SHLD PREVENT ANY
FROST FORMATION AND WL LKLY GO INTO RVR VLY FOG FORMATION INSTEAD.

FRI: SFC HIGH SETTLING ACRS SNE WL ALLOW H8 TMPS TO REBOUND BACK
ARD 12C BY LATE IN DAY WITH DECENT AMT OF SS WITH T1 ARD 19C WL
LEAN A FEW DEGS ABV GUIDANCE AND SHOOT FOR M-U70S CHMPL VLY.

FRI NGT: DVLPG RETURN FLOW SHLD KEEP THINGS NOT AS COLD AS THU NGT
BUT STL COOL IN SHELTERED VLYS WITH 40S/50 AND 50S IN CHMPL/ST LWRNC
VLYS.

LONGER TERM: HERE STL LIES THE ??? IN THE FCST...BUT PERHAPS A BIT
CLEARER.

WED 12Z MDL CYCLE RUN SHWD THE SAME DFRNCS AS 00Z RUN...THE ETA
DROPPING A BKDOOR FNT S ACRS ENTIRE FA SAT WHILE ALL OTHER MDLS KEPT
BKDOOR FNT ALG/N CNDN BDR.

LATEST 00Z THU RUNS SHW ETA COMING INTO LINE WITH OTHER MDLS OF
KEEPING FNT N/ALG CNDN BDR. DAYSHIFT MADE SOME COOLER CHGS TO SAT/SUN
BASED ON ETA BUT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED AGAIN WITH AVN/SEF/ECMWF/
UKMET SOLNS...THUS WL BUMP UP TEMPS AGAIN.

IN FACT...AVN/SEF KEEP A PRETTY GOOD HOLD ON THE OH RVR VLY ULVL RDG
WITH A WARM AIRMASS S OF BNDRY THRU THE WKND AND THE BNDRY NOT
SLIDING INTO NRN FA TIL MON. HWVR...EVEN THEN IT APPEARS SFC HIGH
FM JAMES BAY JOINS WITH OH RVR VLY HIGH AND QUICKLY DEPARTS ANY PSBL
-SHRA FOR MORE DRY AND ABV SEASONABLE TMPS ERLY NXT WEEK.

HYDRO/FIRE: RECENT DRY SPELL SINCE LATE JULY HAS CREATED SOME SHORT
FUSE PROBLEMS INCLDG INCREASE FIRE DANGER. THIS RECENT DRY SPELL AND
IF IT CONTINUES COULD QUICKLY RETURN AREA INTO DROUGHT STATUS.

YES...WE DID SEE A PERIOD FM LATE FALL 2001 THRU EARLY SUMMER 2002
WITH NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE
GROUND WATER LEVELS NEVER FULLY REPLENISHED THE 10 TO 12 INCH
DEFICITS THAT OCCURRED DURING 2001.

AGAIN...SEVERAL HEAVY RAINFALLS (>INCH EACH) ARE NEEDED DURING
AUTUMN TO HELP ALLEVIATE EXPECTED WATER SHORTAGES THIS UPCOMING
WINTER.

WORKS AVBL ARD 230 AM.

.BTV...NONE.

SLW






FXUS61 KBTV 050108
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
910 PM EDT WED SEP 4 2002

WDSPRD SC SHIELD EXPANDING ACRS N FA IN FALL-LIKE NW FLOW REGIME.
18Z ETA BUFKIT HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON LOW CLDS AND SHWS ABNDNT LL MSTR
PERSISTING THRUT THE NGT SO HAV UPDTD FIRST PD SKY TO MOCLDY N ZNS
AND JUST PTCLDY S VT.  INDCTD CLRG ST LAW VLY AFT MIDNGT BASED ON
LTST SATL TRENDS UPSTREAM IN ONT.  TMPS LOOK GOOD TNGT.

ONLY CHG TO 2ND PD WAS TO DLAY MOSUNNY CONDS MCH OF N ZNS AS BUFKIT
SNDGS SUGGEST CLDS MAY LINGER A BIT BYND 12Z.

.BTV...NONE.

KJC






FXUS61 KBTV 042011
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
410 PM EDT WED SEP 4 2002

PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL GO WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THRU ABOUT MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.

HIGH PRES TO BUILD SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  WINDS TO DROP OFF TO NEAR CALM
THU NIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND PARTS OF NE VT.
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF PATCHY FROST FOR THU NIGHT...AND
LET LATER SHIFTS EXAMINE THIS POSSIBILITY MORE CLOSELY.  WILL
MENTION AREAS OF PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG THU NIGHT IN THE USUAL FOG
PRONE VALLEYS OF EASTERN AND NE VT AND THE ADIRONDACKS.

EXTENDED...FCST NOT AS CLEAR CUT THIS WEEKEND...AS ETA MODEL
SUGGESTING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN ZONES....
AND BE SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA BY SAT NIGHT.  AVN MODEL HINTS OF
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE NE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA
SAT NIGHT...BUT THEN PUSHES THIS FRONT BACK NE AS A WARM FRONT ON
SUNDAY...AS UPPER RIDGE BUILD NEWD INTO THE REGION.  WILL GO WITH
THE AVN MODEL FOR THIS WEEKEND AND KEEP THE FCST AREA DRY...BUT WILL
LOWER THE MAX TEMPS A BIT. LOOKS LIKE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MAKE IT
SOUTH ON MONDAY...SO WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT RIGHT NOW
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN.  HIGH PRES TO THEN BUILD
IN FOR FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TUESDAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY.

BTV...NONE.

WGH





   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

    Our Local Student forecasts have been completed for the School year.
              They will resume again in September. Thank You.

       The forecast below is provided by the National Weather Service
     _________________________________________________________________

 CALEDONIA VT-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE VT-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT-WASHINGTON VT-
 INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISLAND POND VT...MONTPELIER VT...
 NEWPORT VT...RANDOLPH VT...ST. JOHNSBURY VT...STOWE VT
 300 AM EDT THU SEP 5 2002

 .TODAY...BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY MIDDAY. HIGH 65 TO 70. NORTHWEST
 WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.
 .TONIGHT...CLEAR WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE. LOW FROM THE MID
 30S TO THE LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH DIMINISHING TO
 LIGHT.
 .FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGH IN THE MID 70S. LIGHT WEST WIND.
 .FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW 45 TO 50.
 .SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH NEAR 80.
 .SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE LOWER 50S.
 .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH 80 TO 85.
 .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW IN THE LOWER
 50S AND HIGH IN THE UPPER 70S.
 .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE LOWER 50S AND HIGH IN THE UPPER
 70S.
 .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE UPPER 40S AND HIGH IN THE
 LOWER 70S.

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