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FPUS51 KBTV 010735
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
333 AM EDT SUN SEP 1 2002



VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012000-
CALEDONIA VT-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE VT-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT-WASHINGTON VT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISLAND POND VT...MONTPELIER VT...
NEWPORT VT...RANDOLPH VT...ST. JOHNSBURY VT...STOWE VT
333 AM EDT SUN SEP 1 2002

.TODAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY...OTHERWISE PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH 70 TO 75.
SOUTH WIND 5 TO 10 MPH.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG LATE. LOW IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S. LIGHT WIND.
.LABOR DAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGH 70 TO 75. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 10 MPH.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE LOWER 50S.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE LOWER 80S.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW IN THE MID 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE PARTLY
CLOUDY. HIGH IN THE MID 70S.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW IN THE UPPER 40S AND HIGH 70 TO 75.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW IN THE MID 40S AND HIGH 70 TO 75.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW 45 TO 50 AND HIGH IN THE MID 70S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 010821
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
410 AM EDT SUN SEP 1 2002

MODELS OFFERING A WIDE VARIETY OF POSSIBLE SCENARIOS TO THE WX OVER
THE NEXT 48 HRS. THE MAIN IMPACT WL BE ON THE WX FOR LATER TONITE
INTO LABOR DAY...AND THE AREA OF MOST CONCERN IS SRN AND ERN VT.

CURRENTLY: STLT PICS INDICATING HIGH CLDS ADVANCING INTO SRN PTN
FA ATTM. SOME PTCHY LOWER CLDS OVR NORTH. FOG NOT ALL THAT PREVALENT
RIGHT NOW....CONFINED MAINLY TO CT VLY. WIDE RANGE IN TEMPS ATTM...
RANGING FROM LOW 40S EAST VT TO LOW 60S CHMPLN/ST LWR VLYS.

LARGE ULVL RDG HOLDING OVR RGN ATTM...BUT IT WL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN
DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. ELONGATED SFC HIGH LOCATED OFF MAINE CST WL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST...AND THIS WL ALLOW MSTR OVR MID ATLC RGN TO
GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY NORTH. QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WL IT LIFT
NORTH...AND HOW FAR NORTH WL IT LIFT BEFORE TURNING MORE EAST.

AVN AND THE CANADIAN SEF ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODELS IN LIFTING
THE MSTR QUICKLY NORTH...REACHING INTO VT TONITE. ETA AND NGM MUCH
SLOWER IN LIFTING THE MSTR NORTH...WITH MOST OF IT REMAINING SOUTH
OF FA THRU THE PERIOD. BASED ON POSITION OF SHRTWV APRCHG THE
MID ATLC STATES AS INDICATED BY WV ...BELIEVE AVN/SEF TOO
AGGRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH THEY LIFT PCPN.
ETA/NGM ON THE OTHER HAND...NOT AGGRESSIVE ENOUGH REGARDING TIMING.
SO WL LEAN TWRDS ETA IN REGARDS TO LOCATION OF PCPN...BUT AVN
REGARDING TIMING. THIS RESULTS IN CHC RAIN LATER TONITE/MONDAY FOR
SRN ZONES. A LOT OF CLDS EXPECTED NRN VT...WHILE MUCH OF NRN NY WILL
CONTINUE WITH JUST P/C SKIES.

EXPECT ANY MSTR FROM THE SYS ALG ATLC COAST TO HAVE EXITED BY MON
NITE. TUESDAY WL FEATURE SOME SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS IN ADVANCE OF
CDFNT. SHRA/TSRA IN ADVANCE OF FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO NW NY BY LATE
TUES...BUT ELSEWHERE ANY PCPN WITH THE FRONT WL HOLD OFF TILL TUE
NITE. LINGERING SHOWERS PSSBLE WED AM. HIGH PRES THEN BLDS INTO
NORTHEAST FOR LATE WEEK.

.BTV...NONE.

RJS






FXUS61 KBTV 010137
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
937 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2002

DRIER AIR IS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE EAST...WITH THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR KPWM.  BACK TO
THE WEST NEAR LAKE ONTARIO...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL AROUND 70F WITH
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES AROUND 60F.  MIN TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
WARMER IN NORTHERN NEW YORK THAN IN VERMONT.  IN ANY CASE...WE FEEL
THAT THE MIN TEMPERATURES ARE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE ACROSS EASTERN
VERMONT...BUT WILL NEED TO BE RAISED 3-6F FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD.  SKY CONDITION AND WINDS ARE ON TRACK.   NO UPDATES WILL
BE MADE TO LATER PERIODS.

ST. JEAN

.BTV...NONE.






FXUS61 KBTV 312026
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
426 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2002

EXPECTING SKIES TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT ACROSS ALL THE FCST AREA...AS
HIGH PRES AREA BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND PUSHES MARINE FLOW
FURTHER SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA THAT HELPED TO KEEPS CLOUDS IN ACROSS
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VT MOST OF TODAY. PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG SHOULD
FORM LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS OF EASTERN VT
AND THE ADIRONDACKS.

HIGH PRES TO BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY...AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG EXPECTED
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS MAX TEMPS IN SOME OF THE
ZONES ON SUNDAY.

PARTLY SUNNY SKIES LABOR DAY.  HOWEVER...12Z AVN MODEL ONLY MODEL
HINTING AT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN VT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS HIGH PRES AREA
MOVES OFFSHORE AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGING A RETURN OF
MARINE LAYER MOISTURE FROM OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
LONG ISLAND.  12Z AVN MOS POPS HINTING AT A CHC OF SHOWERS MONDAY
NIGHT ACROSS VT ZONES.  ETA MODEL KEEPS AREA DRY MONDAY NIGHT.  DO
NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY MECHANISM TO SET OFF SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT.  WILL GO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VT ZONES.  THERE COULD
BE SOME DRIZZLE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...WILL NOT PUT IN FCST AT TIME...AS CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURING LOW AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED...MODELS NOW AGREE THAT COLD FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO
AREA UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WILL REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIP FROM
TUESDAY FCST...AND HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.  WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF PRECIP. ACROSS SOUTHERN VT ZONES EARLY WED...BUT REMOVE
MENTION OF PRECIP. ELSEWHERE.  HIGH PRES TO THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FAIR AND DRY WEATHER THRU SATURDAY.

.BTV...NONE.

WGH





   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

    Our Local Student forecasts have been completed for the School year.
              They will resume again in September. Thank You.

       The forecast below is provided by the National Weather Service
     _________________________________________________________________

 CALEDONIA VT-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE VT-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT-WASHINGTON VT-
 INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISLAND POND VT...MONTPELIER VT...
 NEWPORT VT...RANDOLPH VT...ST. JOHNSBURY VT...STOWE VT
 333 AM EDT SUN SEP 1 2002

 .TODAY...PATCHY FOG EARLY...OTHERWISE PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH 70 TO 75.
 SOUTH WIND 5 TO 10 MPH.
 .TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG LATE. LOW IN THE MID TO UPPER
 40S. LIGHT WIND.
 .LABOR DAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGH 70 TO 75. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 10 MPH.
 .MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE LOWER 50S.
 .TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE LOWER 80S.
 .TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
 THUNDERSTORMS. LOW IN THE MID 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
 .WEDNESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE PARTLY
 CLOUDY. HIGH IN THE MID 70S.
 .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW IN THE UPPER 40S AND HIGH 70 TO 75.
 .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW IN THE MID 40S AND HIGH 70 TO 75.
 .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW 45 TO 50 AND HIGH IN THE MID 70S.

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