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FPUS51 KBTV 030041 AAA
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
841 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2002


VTZ003-004-006>008-030800-
CALEDONIA-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISLAND POND...MONTPELIER...NEWPORT...
ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE
841 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2002

.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING.
LOW IN THE 50S. LIGHT WIND.
.TUESDAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH WIND
10 TO 20 MPH.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH 3 AM. LOW IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE
OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE LOWER 70S.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW IN THE UPPER 40S.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE MID 70S.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW IN THE UPPER 40S.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGH IN THE UPPER 70S.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW IN THE UPPER 40S AND HIGH NEAR 80.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE NIGHT. LOW NEAR 50 AND HIGH NEAR 80.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE LOWER 50S AND HIGH IN THE LOWER
70S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 030527
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
125 AM EDT TUE SEP 3 2002

...SPECTACULAR LATE SUMMER WX TO CONTINUE INTO NXT WKND...

CRNT: GOES-8 ECLIPSE HAS STARTED AND UNFORTUNATELY BEGINS RIGHT
AT THE EDGE OF IR IMAGERY SHWG MARINE CLD DECK ACRS ERN FA. THE
COMBINATION OF SFC LOW OF SNE COAST AND DECENT SFC HIGH S OF NOVA
SCOTIA ACCNTG FOR SUBSTANTIAL LLVL E FLOW FM ERN NEW ENGLAND THAT
HAS PENETRATED UP TO AND OVR THE SPINE OF THE GRN MTNS WITH ONLY NW
VT NOT BE SUBJECTED AS OF THIS TIME.

ALSO...WEAKENING S/W AND VORT LOBE IS CRNTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR CLDS
ACRS ERN GRT LAKES AND WL BRG SOME MID CLDS INTO FA BY DAWN.

FCST DILEMMA: THERE LIES THE MAIN FCST PRBLM...WHEN WL THIS MARINE
LYR LIFT BOTH FOR SKY CONDS AND MAX TMPS TDY.

SHORT TERM: THIS IS WHERE ALL THE ACTION LIES IN THIS FCST PKG AND
THAT'S STRETCHING THINGS TO CALL IT "ACTION".

WEAK S/W WL PUSH INTO CHMPL VLY BY 12Z AND THEN DIMINISH ACRS ERN
VT LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN. AT THE SAME TIME...SNE SFC LOW BEGINS TO
LOSE GRIP AND WSW GRADIENT AHD OF APPCHG "DIMINISHING" CD FNT MVS
INTO NY. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO SHLD HELP SLOWLY ERADICATE MARINE
LYR WITH LWR CT RVR VLY BEING LAST FM FA ARD ERLY AFTN.

SOME MID CLDS FM WEAKENING S/W BUT ENUF OF BRK BTWN THIS AND APPRCHG
NEXT S/W THAT DECENT AMT OF SS AVBL TDY AND WL SEE TMPS INTO 80S FOR
GOOD PTN OF FA. THESE TMPS ACRS NY WL BRG CAPES AOB 1000 J/KG FOR CHC
LATE DAY -TSRA BUT FEEL DYNAMICS ARE BCMG WEAKER WITH TIME WITH THE
GRT LAKES SYSTEM AND ACTVTY SHLD LIE BLO SVR CRITERIA. MON'S SWODY2
BARELY HAD ST LWRNC VLY INTO SLGT RISK AND WUD XPCT THAT TO BE
ELIMINATED OR AREA NOT TO EXPAND FURTHER E ON NEW SWODY1.

AGAIN...GRT LAKES SYSTEM LIFTING WELL N OF FA TAKING THE STGST
DYNAMICS WITH IT. SFC FNT MVS THRU FA TNGT/ERLY WED MRNG WITH MAINLY
SCT -SHRA THREAT. ULVL TROF AXIS AND S/W MV ACRS FA WED AFTN/EVE
DRG MAX HEATING AND STL CAN'T RULE OUT CHC SPRINKLES. I DON'T WANT
TO FLIP-FLOP WITH DAYSHIFT FCSTR SO WL COMPROMISE AND PUT IN MTN
ZONES ONLY.

LONGER TERM: QUIET!!!

ULVL RDG BUILDING WHILE SFC HIGH SITS ACRS FA LATE WEEK THAN SLOWLY
SHIFTS S FOR WRM RETURN FLOW FOR SUNNY...DRY AND ABV SEASONABLE
TMPS INTO ERLY PART OF WKND.

NRN STREAM SYSTEM MAY DAMPER ULVL RDG SLIGHTLY LATE WKND WITH A CD
FNT SUN THAN HIGH PRS RETURNING FOR ERLY NXT WEEK. CNDN GEM DVLPS
CUT-OFF ACRS FA WITH THIS FEATURE LATE SUN/MON...LKLY SOME
INTERACTION WITH PERSISTENT ATLANTIC TROF BUT FEEL FLOW TO FLAT
AND TROF TO E TO ALLOW FOR REDVLPMNT ACRS FA. THEREFORE...WL KEEP
MON FCST INTACT.

CHGS FM PRVS FCST: SPRINKLES IN MTN ZONES FOR WED AFTN AND LKLY
COOLER MIN TMPS FOR ADRNDKS LTR THIS WEEK AS IDEAL RADTNL COOLING
SETTING UP.

***NEW SWODY1***
ST LWRNC VLY STL PSBLY UNDER THE GUN...BUT FEEL KBUF VCNTY IN GTR
THREAT AS OUR CAPES SHLD BE ARD 1000 J/KG AS TD LKLY ONLY IN L/M60S
COMPARED TO M60S/70F ARD KBUF. H5/H7 WNDS MARGINALLY ARD 30 KTS BY
00Z. AGAIN...WL BE MONITORING CLOSELY THROUGHOUT TDY.

WORKS AVBL ARD 230 AM.

.BTV...NONE.

SLW






FXUS61 KBTV 030116
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
916 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2002

MARITIME INFLUENCE FM CSTL LOW EXTENDING INTO S/E VT WITH LOW CLDS
AND PTCHY -RA/-DZ.  LLVL FLOW FCST TO RMN ELY TNGT ACRS E VT WHICH
SHD HOLD LOW CLDS IN PLC WITH PTCHY FOG/DZ.  CRNT FCST ALRDY INDCTG
MORE CLDS S/E VT...HAV UPDTD TO ADD CHC -RA/DZ FOR S VT/LWR CT VLY.
ELSW...PTCLDY LOOKS GOOD.

TUE...CLDS WL LKLY LINGER INTO MRNG HRS E VT SO INDCTD "BCMG"
PTSUNNY.  H8 TMPS INCRS TO 15-16 TUE WHICH WUD SUPPORT MID 80S WITH
FULL SUN.  CLDS/MARINE INFLUENCE WL LKLY KEEP TMPS IN 70S S/E VT
BUT MAXES MAY RCH INTO 80S CHMPLN/ST LAW VLYS WITH SUFFICIENT SUN.
RAISED MAXES TO 80 N VLYS AS FULL SUN UNCERTAIN.  NO OTR CHGS.

.BTV...NONE.

KJC






FXUS61 KBTV 022023
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
423 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2002

IN THE SHORT TERM...SAT LOOP SHOWING CLOUDS MOVG NW FROM SE NEW
ENGLAND...AS MARINE LAYER BRINGS IN LOW CLOUDS FROM THE OCEAN.  MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VT
OVERNIGHT.  WILL THEREFORE GO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EAST OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VLY TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE.  ELSEWHERE...
WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
IN THE VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

LOW PRES AREA SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND EXPECTED TO BE KICKED OUT TO
SEA ON TUESDAY...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
WILL PUT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE ST LAWRENCE VLY AND THE ADIRONDACKS. WILL HOLD OFF ON BRINGING
PRECIP TO THE CHAMPLAIN VLY AND VT ZONES UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.  MOS
POPS LOOK A BIT TOO HIGH FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VLY EASTWARD DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY...AND HAVE CUT BACK ON THEM.

12Z GUIDANCE SHOWING COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FCST
AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING...SO HAVE TAKEN OUT MENTION OF
SPRINKLES FOR WED AND WED NIGHT.  SKIES CLEARING OUT WED NIGHT.

EXTENDED...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY...AS NEW 12Z MODEL RUNS SHOW UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST BY THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE JET
STREAM BEING PUSHED WELL NORTH INTO CANADA.  LOOKING FOR TEMPS TO
GET INTO THE 80S THIS WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

.BTV...NONE.

WGH





   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

    Our Local Student forecasts have been completed for the School year.
              They will resume again in September. Thank You.

       The forecast below is provided by the National Weather Service
     _________________________________________________________________

 CALEDONIA VT-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE VT-ORLEANS VT-WASHINGTON VT-
 INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISLAND POND VT...MONTPELIER VT...
 NEWPORT VT...ST. JOHNSBURY VT...STOWE VT
 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 3 2002

 .TODAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY BY LATE MORNING. HIGH NEAR 80. SOUTH
 WIND 5 TO 10 MPH.
 .TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH 3 AM. LOW IN
 THE UPPER 50S. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
 .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES IN THE AFTERNOON.
 HIGH NEAR 70. WEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.
 .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW NEAR 50.
 .THURSDAY...SUNNY. HIGH IN THE MID 70S.
 .THURSDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOW IN THE MID 40S.
 .FRIDAY...CLEAR. HIGH IN THE UPPER 70S.
 .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW IN THE UPPER 40S AND HIGH IN THE LOWER
 80S.
 .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
 THE NIGHT. LOW NEAR 50 AND HIGH IN THE LOWER 80S.
 .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE LOWER 50S AND HIGH IN THE LOWER
 70S.

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