Print

Print


Expires:200209272000;;329780
FPUS51 KBTV 270708
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
310 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2002


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-272000-
CALEDONIA VT-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE VT-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT-WASHINGTON VT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISLAND POND VT...MONTPELIER VT...
NEWPORT VT...RANDOLPH VT...ST. JOHNSBURY VT...STOWE VT
310 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2002

.TODAY...RAIN...DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SOUTH WIND
5 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES. LOW IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHEAST
WIND 10 MPH BECOMING NORTH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY. HIGH NEAR 60. NORTH WIND 5 TO 10
MPH INCREASING LATE IN THE MORNING TO 15 TO 25 MPH.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE.
AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE. LOW IN THE LOWER 30S.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE UPPER 50S.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW NEAR 30.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH IN THE UPPER 60S.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE MID 40S AND HIGH IN THE MID 70S.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW IN THE 40S
AND HIGH IN THE MID 70S.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE UPPER 40S AND HIGH IN THE LOWER
70S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 270651
AFDBTV
NYZ026>031-034-035-VTZ001>012-270651-

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
251 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2002

...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND EXACT LOCATION/TIMING IS
FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THIS PACKAGE...

WATER VAPOR CONTINUES TO SHOW MID/UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF ISIDORE MOVING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH
AHEAD OF SYSTEM INTO NEW ENGLAND ATTM. ALL MODELS INITIALIZED WELL
AT 5H WITH THE REMNANTS OF ISIDORE. HOWEVER...BASED ON WATER VAPOR
TRENDS AND RAOB DATA FEEL AVN IS SLIGHTLY BETTER WITH 7H SHORT WAVE
ENERGY EJECTING FROM OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...ALONG
A SFC BOUNDARY. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 993MB LOW PRES ACRS WESTERN TN
WITH SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES.
REGION RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS PRECIP ACRS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH SFC CONVERGENCE AND STRONG 850-
700MB LIFT ALONG FRNT...WHICH AVN QPF FIELDS ARE HANDLING WELL.

TODAY-TONIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO EJECT
ALONG WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC RIDGE AS REMNANTS OF ISIDORE
QUICKLY APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FROM
YESTERDAY WITH POSITION/MOVEMENT AND STRENGTH OF ULVL ENERGY AND
SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ISIDORE. LOW PRES TRACKS FROM
OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING ALONG SFC WARM FRNT ACRS SOUTHERN NY
AND ACCELERATES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY NITE. THIS TRACK
WOULD PLACE HEAVIEST PRECIP BAND ASSOCIATED WITH 850-700MB
DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESIS ACRS OUR CWA. ALSO...WITH PLENTY OF
SFC CONVERGENCE WITH FRNT AND STRONG ULVL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
CWA UNDER RRQ OF +120KT JET AT 250MB...WL ENHANCE LIFT ACRS FA.
THIS IS SHOWN NICELY IN BOTH THE AVN/ETA 850-700MB OMEGA FIELDS...
WHICH HAS BULLSEYE OF BEST LIFT CROSSING CWA BETWEEN 18Z TODAY
THRU 06Z TONIGHT. I WOULD EXPECT RAIN TO BECOME HEAVY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...
QUICK MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE
AND THREE INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS ACRS THE ADIRONDACKS NEAR FOUR
INCHES. FEEL WITH UPSLOPE FLOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL BE ENHANCED BY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. ACRS THE VERMONT ZONES RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL GENERALLY
BE 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 3 INCHES. I FEEL FLOOD
WATCH IS NOT WARRANTED FOR VERMONT ZONES AS SYSTEM WL CONTINUE TO
ACCELERATE AND THE TIME PERIOD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WL ONLY BE 6 TO 8
HRS. I WL CONTINUE WATCH FOR NY ZONES. ALSO...EXPECTED AMOUNTS WL BE
BELOW FFG ACRS VERMONT ZONES. I WL ISSUE ESF FOR VT ZONES TO
HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DURING RUSH HOUR AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF URBAN FLG. SYSTEM WL QUICKLY ACCELERATE WITH RAINFALL
ENDING BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS DYNAMICS/LLVL FORCING SHIFTS INTO
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. UPSTREAM TEMPS YESTERDAY WHERE CLOUDS AND RAINS
OCCURRED SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR 55F FOR SLK TO AROUND 60F CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL FLOW FLATTENS AS WEAK CAA CONTINUES
BEHIND DEPARTING AREA OF LOW PRES. SATURDAY...DRY AIR WL QUICKLY
ADVECT INTO REGION AND SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY SUNNY. HOWEVER...
WOULD EXPECT WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE T CLOUDS WL
DEVELOP ACRS HIGHER TERRAIN. PROGGED 850MB TEMPS AND LLVL THICKNESS
VALUES SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR 55F SLK TO LOWER 60S CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
SATURDAY NITE...SKIES WL BECOME CLR...COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS TEMPS
WL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S SLK TO MID/UPPER 30S CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. I
WL MENTION PATCHY FROST/FOG IN COLDER/FOG PRONED AREAS. SUNDAY...
WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH LITTLE WAA ACRS CWA. THEREFORE...WL
EXPECT ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS.

MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS AS STRONG WAA DEVELOPS ACRS CWA
ON SW SFC FLOW. 850MB TEMPS WARM TO NEAR 10C BY 00Z TUESDAY...WHICH
SUPPORTS TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S. ALSO...WOULD EXPECT SOME MID/UPPER
LVL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACRS NORTHERN
CWA.

.BTV...FLOOD WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT NYZ026>031
       NYZ034-035.

TABER






FXUS61 KBTV 270307
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 26 2002

PREVIOUS FORECAST REALLY ON TRACK WITH ALL LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
GUIDANCE.  SEE NO REASON FOR ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME.  IN
FACT...CONFIDENCE IN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF SURFACE LOW WHICH IS THE
REMNANT OF ISADORE...IS EVEN GREATER NOW THAT THE WAYWARD SHORT
RANGE ETA MODEL HAS FINALLY COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE AMAZINGLY
CONSISTENT GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.  STILL
EXPECT 12 HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN FRONTOGENESIS AND
CONVERGENCE JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM EARLY AFTERNOON
FRIDAY UNTIL JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  PROBABLY STILL ON TRACK FOR
GENERAL RAINFALLS NEAR 2 INCHES...AND LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 3 INCHES THAT
ARE THE JUSTIFICATION FOR THE FLOOD WATCH IN NORTHERN NY.

...PREVIOUS 5 PM DISCUSSION...

WILL GO WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL FOR THIS FCST WHICH HAS HAD THE BEST
HANDLE ON ISIDORE SINCE LAST WEEK. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FCST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. HAVE PUT UP A FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHERN NY ZONES...AS RIVER
FORECAST HINTING THAT THE EAST BRANCH OF THE AUSABLE RIVER MAY
APPROACH FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY MORNING. ALSO...THIS FITS WELL
WITH OUR NEIGHBORING FCST OFFICES THAT ALREADY HAVE WATCHES UP. STILL
LOOKING FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE FCST AREA...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.  THE GOOD NEWS
IS THAT THIS WILL BE A FAST MOVING SYSTEM...AND WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING PROBLEMS...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURING BETWEEN 18Z-06Z. BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME NOTICEABLE RISES
IN WATER LEVELS ON ALREADY LOW AREA RIVERS BY SATURDAY MORNING.

AVN MOS POPS LOOK TOO HIGH TONIGHT...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
NGM MOS POPS FOR TONIGHT. WILL ALSO GO WITH THE COLDER AVN MOS MAX
TEMPS FOR FRIDAY...AS TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB
IN THE RAIN ON FRIDAY.  NGM MOS MAX TEMPS A BIT TOO HIGH ON
FRIDAY.

SATURDAY SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES BUT BECOMING BREEZY. CLEAR SKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WIDESPREAD TEMPS INTO THE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...
SO FROST POSSIBLE BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRES TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF FAIR AND DRY WEATHER...WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.


.BTV...FLOOD WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT NYZ026>031
       NYZ034-035.

WGH/REB







FXUS61 KBTV 262113
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
512 PM EDT THU SEP 26 2002

WILL GO WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL FOR THIS FCST WHICH HAS HAD THE BEST
HANDLE ON ISIDORE SINCE LAST WEEK. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FCST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. HAVE PUT UP A FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHERN NY ZONES...AS RIVER
FORECAST HINTING THAT THE EAST BRANCH OF THE AUSABLE RIVER MAY
APPROACH FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY MORNING. ALSO...THIS FITS WELL
WITH OUR NEIGHBORING FCST OFFICES THAT ALREADY HAVE WATCHES UP. STILL
LOOKING FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE FCST AREA...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.  THE GOOD NEWS
IS THAT THIS WILL BE A FAST MOVING SYSTEM...AND WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING PROBLEMS...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURING BETWEEN 18Z-06Z. BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME NOTICEABLE RISES
IN WATER LEVELS ON ALREADY LOW AREA RIVERS BY SATURDAY MORNING.

AVN MOS POPS LOOK TOO HIGH TONIGHT...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
NGM MOS POPS FOR TONIGHT. WILL ALSO GO WITH THE COLDER AVN MOS MAX
TEMPS FOR FRIDAY...AS TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB
IN THE RAIN ON FRIDAY.  NGM MOS MAX TEMPS A BIT TOO HIGH ON
FRIDAY.

SATURDAY SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES BUT BECOMING BREEZY. CLEAR SKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WIDESPREAD TEMPS INTO THE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...
SO FROST POSSIBLE BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRES TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF FAIR AND DRY WEATHER...WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.


.BTV...FLOOD WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT NYZ026>031
       NYZ034-035.

WGH





   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

347
ASUS51 KBTV 271005
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2002

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-271100-
_____VERMONT_____

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    53  49  86 SE5       29.98F
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    50  48  93 CALM      30.05F
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    46  44  93 CALM      30.03S
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     47  46  97 CALM      30.01F
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    54  50  87 S6        30.00F
SPRINGFIELD    LGT RAIN  53  51  93 CALM      30.03F
BENNINGTON     LGT RAIN  53  52  96 CALM      29.98F
$$

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX



                        LSC WEATHER CENTER FORECAST
               [1]Lyndon State College Meteorology Home Page
                    12:00PM, Thursday September 26, 2002
                    STUDENT METEOROLOGIST: Jill Gilardi
       ** The latest forecast for Northeast & North Central Vermont**
       ** The area bounded by Waterbury, St. Johnsbury, and Newport**

   Thursday: This afternoon expect filtered amounts of sunshine, light
   winds and temperatures rising into the upper 60s.

   Thursday Night: Clouds continue filling in from the south into north,
   acting like a blanket, keeping temperatures into the upper 40s. Winds
   will be light.

   Friday: Have your umbrella handy and your rain boots if you have them
   because rain will likely start falling during the afternoon and
   continue through the overnight. Rain will be heavy at times so take
   caution if you are planning on driving. High temperatures will rise
   into the upper 50s.

   Friday Night: The rain will remain steady through the early morning
   hours with the potential for flooding. It will feel tropical, with
   lows dropping only into the mid 50s.

                             Extended Forecast

   Saturday: Showers end during the morning and skies break to partly
   cloudy by the afternoon. Temperatures will top off into the upper 50s.

   Sunday: Anticipate mostly sunny skies and highs around 60 degrees.

   Monday: Mostly sunny sky conditions will make for a perfect start to a
   new week. Temperatures, however, will rise below the average, climbing
   into the lower 60s.

                            Forecast Discussion

   Tropical Storm Isidore made landfall this morning along the Central
   Gulf Coast dumping close to 10 inches, lashing the land with 65 mph
   winds, and spawning tornadoes. The system moving northward at 13mph
   will continue tracking in that direction, into the Tennessee Valley
   through tonight and then race northward towards New England by
   tomorrow. It will weaken and become extra-tropical which means it will
   no longer threaten land with wind but instead with heavy rains. A
   surface cold front, positioned along the Great Lakes will combine with
   the remnants of Isidore on Friday and swing rapidly through the
   Northeast, finally exiting by Saturday. 2-4 inches of rainfall is
   possible with the potential for flooding due to the amount of rain
   that may fall in such a short period of time. The rain will end by
   Saturday afternoon as a broad area of high pressure pushes eastward
   bringing along drier, cooler and sunnier conditions through early next
   week.

References

   1. http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont.

To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html