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Expires:200210192000;;805993
FPUS51 KBTV 190709
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
310 AM EDT SAT OCT 19 2002


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-192000-
CALEDONIA VT-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE VT-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT-WASHINGTON VT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISLAND POND VT...MONTPELIER VT...
NEWPORT VT...RANDOLPH VT...ST. JOHNSBURY VT...STOWE VT
310 AM EDT SAT OCT 19 2002

.TODAY...OCCASIONAL RAIN. HIGH 45 TO 50. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.
CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOW 35 TO 40. WEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50
PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL MID-MORNING...OTHERWISE
PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE MID 40S. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...
OTHERWISE BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE UPPER 20S.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH IN THE UPPER 40S.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE UPPER 20S AND HIGH IN THE MID
40S.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE LOWER 30S AND HIGH IN THE MID
40S.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE LOWER 30S AND HIGH IN THE UPPER
40S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
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     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 190613
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
213 AM EDT SAT OCT 19 2002

TEMPS AND PRECIP TYPE ARE FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS PACKAGE.

NICE COLOR ACRS THE REGION YESTERDAY WITH SNOW COVERED MOUNTAIN TOPS
AND NEAR PEAK FALL FOLIAGE IN THE VALLEYS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS PLENTY
OF MID/UPPER LVL SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH ACRS THE MISS
RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS AHEAD OF APPROACHING S/W. STRONG
MID/UPPER LVL S/W AND ASSOCIATED JET ENERGY OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES
CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD CWA THIS MORNING. AVN/ETA INITIALIZED WELL
WITH NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTATION OF JET ACRS NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH IS
HELPING CURVE OUT MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER NORTHERN CONUS. AT
850/700MB THE ETA INITIALIZED THE BEST WITH LLVL WAA ACRS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THE ASSOCIATED CAA BEHIND THE FRNT ACRS NORTHERN PLAINS. I
WL USE COMBINATION OF AVN/ETA FOR UPPER LVL FEATURES AND WL LEAN
TOWARD ETA FOR LLVL TEMPS/MOISTURE FOR THIS PACKAGE. SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWS WARM FRNT ACRS WESTERN NY WITH TEMPS NEAR 50F. LIGHT OVER-
RUNNING PRECIP IS DEVELOPING ACRS CENTRAL NY AND LIFTING TOWARD CWA
WITH WARM FRNT.

TODAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF AND ASSOCIATED FRNT APPROACHES CWA
TODAY. SFC LOW PRES TRACKS NW OF FA WITH STRONG WAA DEVELOPING ACRS
THE REGION THIS MORNING. 850MB TEMPS WARM TO NEAR +7C BY 21Z THIS
AFTERNOON AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. 925MB
TEMPS/LLVL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING ACRS
NORTHERN CWA/DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING BUT FEEL ENOUGH
WARM AIR WL ADVECT INTO REGION TO PREVENT MIXED PRECIP. PLENTY OF
MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE ADVECTING AHEAD OF FRNT ACRS CWA AND GOOD LIFT
PROVIDED BY LFQ OF 140KT AT 250MB JET. 850-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS/OMEGA FIELDS SHOW INITIAL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
FRNT MOVING ACRS CWA THIS MORNING. THEN ANOTHER AREA OF LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH JET DYNAMICS/VORT MAX/SFC COLD FRNT MOVES ACRS CWA
THIS AFTERNOON...THEREFORE I WL CONTINUE TO MENTION 100 PERCENT
POPS.

TONIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL TROF AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX SHEARS OUT IN
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACRS NE CONUS. FEEL WITH WEST TO NW UPSLOPE
FLOW...SOME 850-700MB MOISTURE AND SECONDARY SFC FRNT MOVING
ACRS CWA...SCT POPS ARE WARRANTED. ALSO...850-700MB OMEGA FIELD SHOWS
GOOD LIFT ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS/GREEN MTNS
OVERNIGHT AND SECONDARY FRNT WL ENHANCE LLVL LIFT/MOISTURE. NEXT
QUESTION IS PRECIP TYPE? 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -6C AND 1000-850MB
THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST RA/SN OVER VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH ALL SN
ABOVE 1500FT. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY SCT POPS I WL NOT MENTION
ACCUMULATIONS ATTM.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...ZONAL FLOW BUILDS ACRS NE CONUS AS WAA DEVELOPS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED FRNT WL PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT/MOISTURE TO DEVELOP SCT PRECIP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
ALSO...FA IS UNDER RRQ OF 110KT JET AT 250MB...WHICH WL HELP
ENHANCE LIFT ACRS REGION. PRECIP TYPE ONCE AGAIN WL BE TRICKY AND
ELEVATION DEPENDENT. 850MB TEMPS/1000-850MB THICKNESS/SOUNDING
PROFILES INDICATE ALL SNOW ACRS NORTHERN CWA/HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH
RA/SN OVER SOUTHERN CWA/VALLEY LOCATION. QPF WL BE LIGHT THEREFORE
NOT EXPECTING MAJOR PROBLEMS.

EXTENDED...MID/UPPER LVL TROF WL CONTINUE ACRS NE CONUS WITH S/W
ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH CWA EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...WITH
LIMITED LIFT/MOISTURE I WL KEEP FCST DRY. 850MB TEMPS/THICKNESS
VALUES SUGGEST BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH CRNT
FCST HAS COVERED.

.BTV...NONE.

TABER







FXUS61 KBTV 190613
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
213 AM EDT SAT OCT 19 2002

TEMPS AND PRECIP TYPE ARE FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS PACKAGE.

NICE COLOR ACRS THE REGION YESTERDAY WITH SNOW COVERED MOUNTAIN TOPS
AND NEAR PEAK FALL FOLIAGE IN THE VALLEYS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS PLENTY
OF MID/UPPER LVL SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH ACRS THE MISS
RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS AHEAD OF APPROACHING S/W. STRONG
MID/UPPER LVL S/W AND ASSOCIATED JET ENERGY OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES
CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD CWA THIS MORNING. AVN/ETA INITIALIZED WELL
WITH NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTATION OF JET ACRS NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH IS
HELPING CURVE OUT MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER NORTHERN CONUS. AT
850/700MB THE ETA INITIALIZED THE BEST WITH LLVL WAA ACRS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THE ASSOCIATED CAA BEHIND THE FRNT ACRS NORTHERN PLAINS. I
WL USE COMBINATION OF AVN/ETA FOR UPPER LVL FEATURES AND WL LEAN
TOWARD ETA FOR LLVL TEMPS/MOISTURE FOR THIS PACKAGE. SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWS WARM FRNT ACRS WESTERN NY WITH TEMPS NEAR 50F. LIGHT OVER-
RUNNING PRECIP IS DEVELOPING ACRS CENTRAL NY AND LIFTING TOWARD CWA
WITH WARM FRNT.

TODAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF AND ASSOCIATED FRNT APPROACHES CWA
TODAY. SFC LOW PRES TRACKS NW OF FA WITH STRONG WAA DEVELOPING ACRS
THE REGION THIS MORNING. 850MB TEMPS WARM TO NEAR +7C BY 21Z THIS
AFTERNOON AS SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. 925MB
TEMPS/LLVL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING ACRS
NORTHERN CWA/DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING BUT FEEL ENOUGH
WARM AIR WL ADVECT INTO REGION TO PREVENT MIXED PRECIP. PLENTY OF
MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE ADVECTING AHEAD OF FRNT ACRS CWA AND GOOD LIFT
PROVIDED BY LFQ OF 140KT AT 250MB JET. 850-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS/OMEGA FIELDS SHOW INITIAL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
FRNT MOVING ACRS CWA THIS MORNING. THEN ANOTHER AREA OF LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH JET DYNAMICS/VORT MAX/SFC COLD FRNT MOVES ACRS CWA
THIS AFTERNOON...THEREFORE I WL CONTINUE TO MENTION 100 PERCENT
POPS.

TONIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL TROF AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX SHEARS OUT IN
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACRS NE CONUS. FEEL WITH WEST TO NW UPSLOPE
FLOW...SOME 850-700MB MOISTURE AND SECONDARY SFC FRNT MOVING
ACRS CWA...SCT POPS ARE WARRANTED. ALSO...850-700MB OMEGA FIELD SHOWS
GOOD LIFT ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS/GREEN MTNS
OVERNIGHT AND SECONDARY FRNT WL ENHANCE LLVL LIFT/MOISTURE. NEXT
QUESTION IS PRECIP TYPE? 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -6C AND 1000-850MB
THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST RA/SN OVER VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH ALL SN
ABOVE 1500FT. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY SCT POPS I WL NOT MENTION
ACCUMULATIONS ATTM.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...ZONAL FLOW BUILDS ACRS NE CONUS AS WAA DEVELOPS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED FRNT WL PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT/MOISTURE TO DEVELOP SCT PRECIP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
ALSO...FA IS UNDER RRQ OF 110KT JET AT 250MB...WHICH WL HELP
ENHANCE LIFT ACRS REGION. PRECIP TYPE ONCE AGAIN WL BE TRICKY AND
ELEVATION DEPENDENT. 850MB TEMPS/1000-850MB THICKNESS/SOUNDING
PROFILES INDICATE ALL SNOW ACRS NORTHERN CWA/HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH
RA/SN OVER SOUTHERN CWA/VALLEY LOCATION. QPF WL BE LIGHT THEREFORE
NOT EXPECTING MAJOR PROBLEMS.

EXTENDED...MID/UPPER LVL TROF WL CONTINUE ACRS NE CONUS WITH S/W
ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH CWA EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...WITH
LIMITED LIFT/MOISTURE I WL KEEP FCST DRY. 850MB TEMPS/THICKNESS
VALUES SUGGEST BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH CRNT
FCST HAS COVERED.

.BTV...NONE.

TABER






FXUS61 KBTV 190034
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
834 PM EDT FRI OCT 18 2002

DYING LAKE PRECIP BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO STILL STREAMING INTO THE
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.  YET UPSTREAM THERE IS VERY LITTLE
GOING ON THUS FAR.  WILL UPDATE TIMING OF RAINFALL FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK ZONE GROUPINGS...OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND
NO OTHER UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED.

ST. JEAN

.BTV...NONE.






FXUS61 KBTV 181735
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
135 PM EDT FRI OCT 18 2002

CURRENTLY...CONTINUED SCATTERED TO BROKEN SKY COVER ACROSS CWA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS FOR MID TO LATE OCTOBER. CLOUDS MOST PREVALENT OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH WAVEFORM FEATURES INDICATIVE OF MEAN 30KT WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS SPINE OF ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES
TO AFFECT AREA...WITH EXCELLENT QG FORCING AND 295-300K ISENTROPIC
LIFT BEGINNING IN EARNEST LATER TONIGHT ON NOSE OF 50KT 850 HPA JET.
APPEARS BEST WAA AND 850 FRONTOGENESIS TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES...AND HAVE THUS LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES FOR TONIGHT BASED ON THIS REASONING. SFC LOW TO TRACK JUST
NORTH OF THE BORDER ON SATURDAY. TYPICALLY THESE TEND TO BE DRYER
SYSTEMS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY THAN GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE...BUT
SEVERAL FEATURES...INCLUDING STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS...EXCELLENT 850 HPA WAA AND A 0.75-1" PWAT PLUME ADVECTING
OVER AREA ARGUE FOR CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SFC BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT TO AFFECT
AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY. DRY SLOT TO CUT OFF PRECIPITATION RATHER
QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT SOME WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NOTED
AND MEAN WNW FLOW AT 925-850 HPA IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE AS
BOUNDARY APPROACHES...SO LIKE MESOETA IDEA OF POSSIBLE LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS. LOW LEVEL
1000-850 HPA THICKNESS AND BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE THAT SOME OF
THIS MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING...BUT WILL JUST
BROAD BRUSH CHANCE -SHRA/-SHSN FOR NOW. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TO
AFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WITH
LIGHT AND SPOTTY MIXED PRECIPITATION...AND WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT
THINKING ON THIS FEATURE.

AFTERWARDS...AREA REMAINS UNDER FAST WNW FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF DEEP
POLAR VORTEX WHICH FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT INTO EASTERN CANADA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES
REGAINS CONTROL...WITH GENERAL WNW FLOW...AND COOL/DRY WEATHER F0R
THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

JMG

.BTV...NONE.











   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

409
ASUS51 KBTV 191005
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT OCT 19 2002

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-191100-
_____VERMONT_____

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    47  34  60 S20G24    29.90F
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    41  32  70 S7        29.98F
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    37  36  96 CALM      29.94F
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     34  32  92 CALM      29.99F
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    45  34  65 SE7       29.97F
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    33  31  92 CALM      30.04F
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    48  36  63 S10G23    29.98F
$$

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX



                        LSC WEATHER CENTER FORECAST
               [1]Lyndon State College Meteorology Home Page
                      12:00PM, Friday October 18, 2002
                    STUDENT METEOROLOGIST: Jill Gilardi
       ** The latest forecast for Northeast & North Central Vermont**
       ** The area bounded by Waterbury, St. Johnsbury, and Newport**

   Friday: This afternoon there will be intervals of sunshine. High
   temperatures will reach the upper 40s and winds will gust out of the
   west-northwest at 5-15 mph.

   Friday Night: Becoming cloudy with a chance for rain late.
   Temperatures will be in the upper 30s to around 40 and winds will be
   light. Those that are planning on going to the North Congregational
   Church in St. Johnsbury at 7:30 to watch a star-studded musical
   program should keep an umbrella by their sides in case it rains.

   Saturday: Have your rain gear ready. Periods of rain showers are
   likely along with winds from the south gusting between 10-20 mph.
   Temperatures will be in the upper 40s.

   Saturday Night: The rain ends and the clouds erode. Lows will be in
   the mid-upper 30s.

                             Extended Forecast

   Sunday: Anticipate partly sunny skies and highs in the upper 40s.

   Monday: A chance for rain or snow showers. Highs will only be in the
   lower 40s.

   Tuesday: Expect partly sunny skies but cool temperatures in the lower
   40s that may cause you to pull those winter hats back out.

                            Forecast Discussion

   A damp and chilly weather pattern has set up and is going to stick
   around through early next week. A weak system came through last night
   bringing along some rain showers to the lower elevations. .10-.20
   inches generally fell over Orleans, Washington and Caledonia County.
   St. Johnsbury picked up .13, Sutton and West Danville accumulated .14,
   Plainfield totaled .17, Greensboro picked up .20 and Northfield
   received .21. A stronger system in the upper Midwest is going to track
   eastward and bring heavier amounts of rain on Saturday where the North
   Country could pick up a half an inch. Cooler temperatures will settle
   in and possibly raise the chance for snow instead of rain on Monday
   when another weak system moves through.

References

   1. http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/

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