Expires:200210202000;;831999
FPUS51 KBTV 200719
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
320 AM EDT SUN OCT 20 2002
VTZ003-004-006>008-010-202000-
CALEDONIA VT-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE VT-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT-WASHINGTON VT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISLAND POND VT...MONTPELIER VT...
NEWPORT VT...RANDOLPH VT...ST. JOHNSBURY VT...STOWE VT
320 AM EDT SUN OCT 20 2002
.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO
10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. NORTHWEST WIND
5 TO 15 MPH.
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE MID 20S.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE MID 40S.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. LOW IN THE MID 20S.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH IN THE MID 40S.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW NEAR 30 AND HIGH IN THE UPPER 40S.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. LOW IN THE LOWER 30S AND HIGH NEAR 50.
.SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE
MID 30S AND HIGH NEAR 50.
$$
REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
_________________________________________________________________
FXUS61 KBTV 200610
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
210 AM EDT SUN OCT 20 2002
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
WATER VAPOR CONTINUES TO SHOW MID/UPPER LVL TROF DEVELOPING AS WEAK
S/W'S AND JET COUPLETS ROTATE THROUGH CWA. ONE JET MAX ACRS SOUTHERN
NY IS QUICKLY LIFTING NE AS ANOTHER S/W AND ASSOCIATED JET MAX DROPS
SOUTH ACRS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ELONGATED VORT MAX IS PROVIDING
ENOUGH LIFT ALONG SFC COLD FRNT TO PRODUCE -RW OVER THE
CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS. SFC TEMPS AHEAD OF FRNT CONTINUE IN
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S WITH MID TO UPPER 30S BEHIND FRNT OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA. BOTH AVN/ETA INITIALIZED WELL WITH
POSITION/STRENGTH OF JET MAXES ACRS NE CONUS AND ASSOCIATED SFC
FEATURES. ALSO...BASED ON RAOB DATA THE ETA INITIALIZED SLIGHTLY
BETTER WITH LLVL TEMPS/HGHT FIELDS ACRS NE CONUS AND UPPER MISS
VALLEY.
TODAY-TONIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL TROF CONTINUES ACRS CENTRAL CANADA
WITH WEAK ELONGATED S/W ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH CWA. BEST SYNOPTIC
FORCING ASSOCIATED RRQ OF JET AND VORT MAX WL STAY NORTH OF CWA.
HOWEVER...MESOSCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW ACRS THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACK/GREEN MTNS WL ENHANCE LLVL LIFT.
ALSO...PLENTY OF LEFTOVER 1000-850MB MOISTURE...WHICH WL BE ENHANCED
BY WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT CROSSING OVER LK ONTARIO. I WL MENTION SCT
POPS ACRS MTNS WITH SPRINKLES/FLURRIES OVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. LLVL
THICKNESS VALUES/PROGGED 850MB TEMPS SUGGEST SNOW OVER MTNS WITH A
MIX POSSIBLE IN VALLEYS. NO MAJOR PROBLEMS EXPECTED WITH ONLY LIGHT
QPF. TONIGHT...WEAK SFC TROF DEVELOPS ACRS LK ONTARIO AND MOVES INTO
NORTHERN NY BY MONDAY MORNING. BEST JET DYNAMICS/VORTICITY STAYS
NORTH OF CWA AND WITH LIMITED FORCING/MOISTURE I WL MENTION SCT
POPS WESTERN CWA.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...NW FLOW CONTINUES ACRS CWA AND DRIER AIR WL ADVECT
INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...I WL CONTINUE TO MENTION PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACRS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH UPSLOPE SFC FLOW. 850MB
TEMPS NEAR -6C SUGGEST HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. A WEAK
VORT MAX MONDAY NITE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO INCREASE CLOUDS ACRS
THE CENTRAL/WESTERN CWA. THIS WL PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING INTO THE
TEENS ACRS THE ADIRONDACKS. TUESDAY...ANOTHER ELONGATED VORT MAX
MOVES ACRS THE CWA IN THE FLOW ALOFT. ONCE AGAIN MID LVL MOISTURE
INCREASES BUT WITH LIMITED LIFT/DYNAMICS WL KEEP FCST DRY. TEMPS WL
CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL.
EXTENDED...MID/UPPER LVL TROF CONTINUES ACRS EASTERN CONUS WITH
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES/JET ENERGY PASSING THROUGH EVERY COUPLE OF
DAYS. THURSDAY...SFC LOW PRES MOVES FROM UPPER MISS VALLEY INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH TRAILING COLD FRNT ACRS THE MID WEST. THIS
TRACK SUGGEST WAA DEVELOPING ACRS REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. ALSO...850MB TEMPS/LLVL THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. I WL CONTINUE TO MENTION
-RW FOR FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SFC CONVERGENCE/MID LVL MOISTURE AND
FA PROGGED TO BE UNDER LFQ OF 250MB JET. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WEAK
CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND SFC FRNT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED. OUR
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE/SFC LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE MID ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
.BTV...NONE.
TABER
FXUS61 KBTV 200112
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
912 PM EDT SAT OCT 19 2002
WL UPDATE TO CLEAN UP WORDING...FORECAST ON TARGET.
BKN CLDS ACRS VT ON SATL IMAGERY...WITH OVC MOVG ACRS NRN NY. RADAR
INDCS SCT SHWRS MOVG ACRS ST LAW VLY. SFC LO ELONGATED NE-SW ALG ST
LAW IN SRN QUE INTO NRN ME. LO CNTR NR YQB ATTM MOVG NE. SFC TROF
N/S MOVG THRU CHAMP VLY OF VT WL RCH CT VLY BY MIDN WITH WND SHIFTG
TO WLY. TRUE CDFNT JUST N OF LK ONT AS NOTED IN WIND AND TEMP
FIELDS AND LAPS ANALYSIS.
LAPS/MAPS ANALYSIS INDCS WARM AXIS ACRS WRN NY WITH TIGHT GRADIENT
ACRS SRN CANADA N OF LK ONT BHND CDFNT. BELIEVE THAT COLDER AIR WL
MOV INTO NRN NY AFTR MIDN...AND IN VT TWD MRNG. NOTED THAT LOLVL WNDS
HV DMSHND TO ARND 30 KTS ON PROFILERS/VAD WINDS BTWN 500-1000 FT...
BUT DON'T THINK THESE WNDS WL GET TO THE GROUND.
WL KEEP IT MSTLY CLDY OVRNGT...AND WITH SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE AND
SECONDARY WIND SHIFT CROSSING AREA LATE TNGT...EXPECT SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIP. THUS CHC PCPN LKS REASONABLE. BELIEVE THE COLD AIR WONT
COME INTO RATHER LATE.
.BTV...NONE.
SFH
FXUS61 KBTV 191743
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
143 PM EDT SAT OCT 19 2002
CURRENTLY...1000 HPA SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY PASSING JUST
NORTH OF AREA NEAR CYMX. LOTS OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL ENERGY TRAVERSING
AREA IN FORM OF 30-40KT LL JET. MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW FROM ABOUT
230 DEGREES...AND AS A RESULT SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE/DOWNSLOPE
CONDITIONS ONGOING. WESTERN SLOPES OF ADIRONDACKS TO RECEIVE AS MUCH
AS 0.75" QPF WHEN ALL SAID AND DONE...WITH CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
STRUGGLING TO SEE MAYBE A QUARTER INCH. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ALSO PREVALENT...WITH MIXING TO ABOUT 1K FEET ALLOWING GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 40 MPH TO BE OBSERVED...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS OPEN WATERS OF THE
LAKE AND IN THE ISLANDS.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS TO NE TONIGHT...BUT
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND SECONDARY WIND SHIFT/SFC TROF CROSS AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP. MEAN 925-850 HPA NW FLOW OF 25 TO
30 KT ARGUES FOR HIGHER POPS IN OROGRAPHIC FAVORED AREAS. IN
FACT...BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST QPF OF AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER INCH
QUITE POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN GREEN MTN
SPINE. GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR HOWEVER...WITH
1000-850 HPA THICKNESS PROFILES ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR FROZEN
PRECIP UNTIL PASSAGE OF SFC TROF...SOMETIME AFTER 06Z. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE SUNDAY. LINGERING 925-850 HPA MOISTURE AND
RELATIVELY STEEP LL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO HANG TOUGH.
SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP STILL NOTED FROM ETA/GFS ENSEMBLES...BUT WILL
DISCOUNT FOR NOW AS MOISTURE DEPTH LESSENS AND FORCING EXITS EAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO
AFFECT AREA OVERNIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE FANFARE. 850 HPA SHORTWAVE
DAMPENS OUT AS IT APPROACHES AREA. SOME WEAK WAA NOTED...BUT
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AIR SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
MANY AREAS TO SEE THEIR FIRST WET FLAKES OF THE YEAR...BUT GUIDANCE
HAS SLOWED THIS FEATURE SOMEWHAT...AFFECTING N NY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND VERMONT BY MONDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL
ONLY SCANTY LIGHT PRECIP AT BEST...AND WILL NOT GET CARRIED AWAY
WITH THIS.
AFTERWARDS...AREA TO REMAIN DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH FAST MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TO SOUTH OF DEEP POLAR VORTEX/LW TROUGHINESS THROUGH
MID-WEEK. MAINLY DRY AND COOL WEATHER TO AFFECT AREA SAVE PERHAPS A
FEW LAKE ONTARIO SHOWER BANDS ACROSS SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TUE/WED
TIME FRAME. CORE OF COLDEST AIR OVER AREA DURING THIS PERIOD AS
WELL...WITH HIGH TEMPS SOME 10-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LATEST LONG
RANGE ENSEMBLES NOW SUGGEST PLAINS SYSTEM EJECTING EAST TOWARDS AREA
BY LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH WAA PATTERN DEVELOPING
AND NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS MOST OF THIS WILL FALL IN THE LIQUID FORM.
JMG
.BTV...NONE.
This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
Network)
References
1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html
783
ASUS51 KBTV 201005
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SUN OCT 20 2002
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
VTZ001>014-201100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON CLOUDY 42 39 89 N8 29.81R
MONTPELIER LGT RAIN 43 38 82 N8 29.79R
MORRISVILLE LGT RAIN 41 40 96 N8 29.80R
ST. JOHNSBURY N/A 42 41 96 CALM 29.75R
RUTLAND CLOUDY 45 36 70 SW8 29.81R
SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 45 36 70 W5 29.81S
BENNINGTON CLOUDY 45 36 70 SW7 29.84S
$$
______KEY______
VSB - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX - HEAT INDEX
LSC WEATHER CENTER FORECAST
[1]Lyndon State College Meteorology Home Page
12:00 PM Saturday Otctober 19, 2002
STUDENT METEOROLOGIST: Paul Gebelein
** The latest forecast for Northeast & North Central Vermont**
** The area bounded by Waterbury, St. Johnsbury, and Newport**
Saturday: The weather will be damp for the LSC men's rugby game. Skies
will be cloudy and light rain will move into the area during the early
afternoon. Highs will be 45 to 50 with South winds, 5-15 mph.
Tonight: Expect cloudy skys with a chance of a few sprinkles or
flurries. Lows in the mid 30s.
Sunday: Becoming partly sunny in the afternoon. It will be cool with
highs 45-50. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday night: Skies will be mostly clear with a few clouds after
midnight. Expect wide spread frosts. Winds will be 25 to 30.
Extended Forecast
Monday : Partly Sunny and continued cool highs will be in the mid to
upper 40s.
Tuesday: It will be another nice day. Expect partly sunny skies with
highs 40-45.
Wednesday: Partly Sunny with highs in the lower 40s.
Forecast Discussion
A cold front will be running through the area today bringing with it a
chance of rain. there could be a few snowflakes mixed in over the
higher elevations. The storm will move into the Canadian maritimes
this evening leaving us with nice weather for tomorrow afternoon and
most of next week. We will getting into a dry patteren for the
reminder of this week. The next chance of any rain wont come until
friday of the upcoming week.
References
1. http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/
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