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Expires:200210212000;;858365
FPUS51 KBTV 210723
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
325 AM EDT MON OCT 21 2002


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-212000-
CALEDONIA VT-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE VT-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT-WASHINGTON VT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISLAND POND VT...MONTPELIER VT...
NEWPORT VT...RANDOLPH VT...ST. JOHNSBURY VT...STOWE VT
325 AM EDT MON OCT 21 2002

.TODAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING...THEN
PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO
10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE MID 40S. NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10
MPH.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW IN THE LOWER 20S.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE LOWER 40S.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE UPPER 20S.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGH IN THE UPPER 40S.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATE. LOW
IN THE LOWER 30S AND HIGH IN THE UPPER 40S.
.SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOW IN THE MID 30S AND HIGH NEAR 50.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY AND WINDY. LOW IN THE LOWER 30S AND HIGH IN
THE UPPER 40S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 210556
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
156 AM EDT MON OCT 21 2002

TEMPS AND CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TUESDAY NITE INTO
WEDS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST CONCERNS

WATER VAPOR CONTINUES TO SHOW MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS NE CONUS WITH
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES/JET ENERGY IN THE FLOW ALOFT. ONE WAVE ACRS
WESTERN LAKES IS BECOMING ELONGATED IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AS
IT APPROACHES CWA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/JET ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SFC
TROF ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH INTO OUR NORTHERN
CWA THIS MORNING. RADAR/SFC OBS INDICATE AREAS OF -SN ALONG AND
BEHIND FRONT ACRS CANADA. FEEL SFC CONVERGENCE AND LLVL LIFT PROVIDED
BY UPSLOPE FLOW WL ENHANCE -SN ALONG WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH THIS
MORNING.

TODAY-TONIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL TROF REMAINS ANCHORED ACRS EASTERN
CANADA AS SHORT WAVE/JET ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRNT MOVES THRU
CWA TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF 1000-850MB MOISTURE/ENHANCE
LLVL LIFT FROM UPSLOPE SFC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...I WL MENTION
FLURRIES VALLEY LOCATIONS/-SN MTNS. 850MB TEMPS NEAR -8C AND LLVL
THICKNESS VALUES BELOW 1300M SUPPORTS MOSTLY ALL SNOW. ALSO...WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS TEMPS WL ONLY BE LOWER 40S CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TO MID
30S AT SLK. TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
SHIFTS ACRS REGION AND LLVL MOISTURE DECREASES. THIS COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS NEAR -8C SUGGEST THE COLDEST NITE OF THE
YEAR.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
AND WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. WEAK SFC LOW PRES/VORT LOBE
IS PROGGED TO TRACK ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACRS SOUTHERN NY BY TUESDAY
EVENING. FEEL BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WAA/SFC
CONVERGENCE WL STAY SOUTH OF CWA THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...FEEL
SYSTEM WL COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY NITE TO
MENTION -SN. WEDNESDAY...NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AS SFC HIGH PRES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLOWLY MOVES INTO REGION. EXPECT DRIER AIR TO
ADVECT INTO CWA ON NW SFC FLOW AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNNY.
850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO WARM ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES...THEREFORE
EXPECT HIGHS 30S/40S.

EXTENDED...HGHTS/THICKNESS VALUES INCREASE AS WEAK MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE DEVELOPS ACRS EASTERN CONUS. HOWEVER...850MB TEMPS STILL NEAR
-5C FOR THURSDAY...THEREFORE EXPECT TEMPS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WAA CONTINUES AS 850MB TEMPS WARM AND SFC LOW
PRES TRACKS FROM THE MISS VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. WL CONTINUE
TO MENTION CHANCE POPS LATE FRIDAY INTO SAT BUT FEEL BEST SFC
CONVERGENCE/LIFT/MOISTURE WL STAY SOUTH OF CWA. TEMPS WL CONTINUE
TO BE AOB NORMAL...WHICH CRNT FCST HAS COVERED.

.BTV...NONE.

TABER






FXUS61 KBTV 210035
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
834 PM EDT SUN OCT 20 2002

WILL MAKE A QUICK UPDATE FOR TONIGHT TO SKY CONDITION AND WINDS.

LARGE BREAK IN CLDS NOTED ON SATL IMAGERY MOVG ACRS VERMONT...SO WL
GO PTLY CLDY...BCMG CLDY AFTR MIDN IN VERMONT. WL ALSO MAKE CHAMPLN
VLY WNDS LIGHT N BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. OTRW NO CHGS.

ATTM WK PRES GRAD ACRS OUR AREA. MAIN CDFNT WELL TO OUR SOUTH IN
MID-ATLC RGN. WK TROF ACRS SRN CANADA SO WL CONT MENTION OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE ACRS NRN NY.

LIGHT PCPN MOVG OFF LK ONT AND ACRS SRN CANADA ATTM AS INDCD ON RADAR
AND SFC RPTS. SHUD BE VERY LIGHT BUT WL CONT 30 PCT POP PTNS OF NRN
NY.

GNRL H/5 TROFINESS CONTS IN NE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WORK ZONES OUT BY 845 PM

SFH

.BTV...NONE.






FXUS61 KBTV 201705
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
104 PM EDT SUN OCT 20 2002

CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES COVERING MUCH OF AREA ALONG WITH A
FEW LT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF VT.
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SEEING A BIT OF WET SNOW AT THIS TIME...BUT ONLY
LT IN NATURE. TEMPS RUNNING SOME 10-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
OCT.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...WEAK AND TRANSIENT SYSTEM TO AFFECT AREA LATE
TONIGHT. DAMPENING 850 HPA TROUGH/WAA TO APPROACH FORM NW AFTER 03Z.
1000-850 THICKNESS PROFILES SUGGESTING ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES
FALL WILL PRIMARILY IN THE FROZEN FORM. ONGOING -SN E OF GEORGIAN
BAY REGION...AND THE FACT THAT SOME LAKE MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO BE
ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM...ARGUES FOR CONTINUING CHANCE POPS NY
ZONES LATE. GFS ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING SOME OF THIS MAY AFFECT NW VT
ZONES BY MORNING...ESP WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS...BUT BELIEVE
WITH WEAKENING SUPPORT ALOFT NOT MUCH OF THIS WILL BE REALIZED.
MOISTURE LAYER BELOW 850 HPA THINS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
MONDAY WITH MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS SEEING AT LEAST SOME SUN. TEMPS
REMAINING ON THE COOL SIDE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AREA REMAINS UNDER FAST WNW FLOW
SOUTH OF BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHINESS ACROSS NE CONUS. THUS GUIDANCE
STRUGGLING WITH TIMING OF WEAK FEATURES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW. WILL
GO WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND PC/MC CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ETA SOLN OF WINTRY PRECIP/WAA EVENT WED NT INTO THU WILL
BE DISCOUNTED FOR NOW...AS GFS AND CANADIAN EXTENDED 00Z RUN HAS
NOTHING BUT ANTICYLCONIC INFLUENCES DURING THIS PERIOD.

AFTERWARDS...WILL CONTINUE CHC -SHRA/MTN -SHRASN DAYS 5-6 AND NOT
CHANGE TO MUCH HERE. OPERATIONAL MRF SOLN OF DEEP CYCLOGENESIS OFF
NE COAST ON SATURDAY ENTIRELY DEPENDENT ON TIMING/PHASING OF SW
ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF SC PLAINS AND NORTHERN LW TROUGH. ALSO NOTED
THAT THE OPERATIONAL RUN IS AN OUTLIER AMONG OTHER EXT RANGE
ENSEMBLE SOLNS DURING THIS PERIOD...SO WILL NOT GET CARRIED AWAY
HERE.

JMG

.BTV...NONE.











   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

060
ASUS51 KBTV 211005
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON OCT 21 2002

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-211100-
_____VERMONT_____

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    42  31  64 NW14G21   30.02R
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    34  32  92 W5        30.00R
MORRISVILLE    LGT RAIN  38  34  85 NW7       30.00R
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     33  32  96 CALM      29.96R
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    39  34  81 NW7       30.00R
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    32  31  96 CALM      30.01R
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    40  36  86 CALM      30.02R
$$

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX



                        LSC WEATHER CENTER FORECAST
               [1]Lyndon State College Meteorology Home Page
                        5PM, Sunday October 20, 2002
                   STUDENT METEOROLOGIST: Heather Vieira
       ** The latest forecast for Northeast & North Central Vermont**
       ** The area bounded by Waterbury, St. Johnsbury, and Newport**

   Tonight: It will feel like winter tonight with very cold temperatures.
   Morning lows will be in the upper 20s with a chilly northwest wind
   blowing at 10-15 mph. The skies will be remain mostly cloudy
   throughout the evening hours.

   Tomorrow: The clouds will begin to make its way out of the Kingdom as
   a strong Canadian high pressure system moves in. The high temperature
   will only make its way into the mid to lower 40s. Winds will remain
   brisk with Northwesterly winds blowing at 10-15 mph.

   Tomorrow Night: Northeastern Vermont will see another cold night with
   lows dropping well into the 20s. Some valley locations could even see
   lows near the teens. The skies will remain mostly clear throughout the
   night.

   Tuesday: On and off sunshine throughout the daytime hours with highs
   once again in the lower 40s. The evening will be very cold with lows
   plummeting into the 20s. It will be a good night to stay indoors and
   enjoy BINGO at the Barton Memorial Building at 6:30pm.

                             Extended Forecast

   Wednesday: Partly cloudy with temperatures very similar to the first
   half of the week. Highs will be in the lower to mid 40s and lows will
   once again sneak down to the 20s.

   Thursday: We will see slightly warmer temperatures, with highs nearing
   the 50 degree mark. Lows will also not be as bitterly cold, with
   temperatures in the mid-upper 30s. It will be a much better day to
   come out and watch the Lyndon State College women's soccer team take
   on Castleton State College at home around 3pm.

   Friday: Most of the day will remain cloudy with some showers making
   its way into the region during the night. Highs will be near 50, and
   lows in the mid-upper 30s.

                            Forecast Discussion

   The very strong cold front that brought heavy showers into the
   Northeast Kingdom Saturday has moved off the coast. Behind it, we saw
   very chilly temperatures today. The rest of the week will be very
   similar to today, with highs in the lower 40s and lows in the mid 20s.
   This is due to a powerful high pressure system that is filtering into
   our area very cold dry Canadian air. The high pressure will stick
   around throughout the majority of week making the weather feel more
   like winter. If you plan on venturing out during the night or early
   morning hours, plan on bundling up in your winter clothing. This will
   be the last good week to get out and enjoy the fall foliage as we are
   just about peaked across the region.

References

   1. http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/

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