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FPUS51 KBTV 170755
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
355 AM EDT THU OCT 17 2002


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-172000-
CALEDONIA-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISLAND POND...MONTPELIER...NEWPORT...
RANDOLPH...ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE
355 AM EDT THU OCT 17 2002

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGH 45 TO 50. WEST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING...BUT SNOW ABOVE 2000 FEET.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET OF AROUND AN INCH. PRECIPITATION
ENDING BY MORNING. LOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND.  CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
NORTHWEST WIND AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN INCREASING
CLOUDS. LOW IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON.
HIGH IN THE LOWER 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY...ENDING BY
MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE 30S. CHANCE OF
RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH IN THE
MID 40S.
.MONDAY...A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...
OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE 30S AND HIGH IN THE LOWER 40S.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE UPPER 20S AND HIGH IN THE LOWER
TO MID 40S.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW 25 TO 30 AND HIGH IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 170718
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
318 AM EDT THU OCT 17 2002

RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEFORMATION ZONE
PRECIPITATION EXITING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.  SO FAR
SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THIS
EVENT...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN NEW YORK.  STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
AROUND...SO THERE MAY STILL BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
LINGERING FOR JUST A FEW MORE HOURS.  WILL HANDLE ANY OF THIS WITH
NOWCASTS AND THEREFORE JUST MENTION MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
FORECAST TODAY.  THERE SHOULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY AS DOWNSLOPING KICKS IN LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...ANY SUN SHOULD BE BRIEF AS STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
HELP TO GENERATE MORE STRATOCUMULUS.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN THE 45
TO 55 DEGREE RANGE.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST LATER TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT.  THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT.  PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.  HOWEVER...SNOW LEVEL WILL
BE AROUND 2000 FEET.  WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TONIGHT AND MENTION SNOW ABOVE 2000 FEET.  THIS WILL TRIGGER THE
NEED FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...WHICH SHOULD BE AROUND AN INCH.
PRECIPITATION WILL END OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BY MIDNIGHT...THEN
OVER VERMONT TOWARD MORNING.  WILL ALSO MENTION THIS DETAIL IN THE
FORECAST.

ON FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BACK TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  THIS
SYSTEM TO BE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE ONE FOR TONIGHT.  850 MB WARM
AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
FEEL AT THIS TIME MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AT 850 MB WILL RAISE SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 4500 FEET.  SO ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS.
WILL MENTION RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN
ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.  SOUTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT
ON SATURDAY WILL HELP WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA.

THE SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL HELP TO DRAW
COLDER AIR IN AT THE LOW LEVELS AND WITH THE ADVANCE OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...TEMPERATURES
MAY BE COLD ENOUGH AT THE LOWER LEVELS FOR EITHER RAIN OR SNOW.
GOING FORECAST HAS THIS IDEA AND WILL CONTINUE FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY.  TREND FOR THE LATER PERIODS INDICATES A LARGE
UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST.  THIS
SHOULD HELP TO BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL.

WORK ZONES...ALBWRKCWF...ALREADY AVAILABLE.

EVENSON

.BTV...NONE.







FXUS61 KBTV 170107
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
907 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2002

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS ROTATING NORTHWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE
AT THIS HOUR...WITH THE SURFACE CYCLONE RACING NORTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE DEFORMATION BAND ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
CYCLONE IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD OUT OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...BUT RAIN IS STILL HANGING ON ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN NEW YORK
STATE.  THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AS THE LOW EJECTS
INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY
PRECIPITATION.  ZONE WORDING AND GRIDDED FIELDS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE...
THEY JUST NEEDED SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING.  TEMPERATURES WERE
NOT TOUCHED AND WINDS WERE BUMPED UP A FEW MPH BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS.  LOOKING AHEAD TO THURSDAY'S FORECAST...18 UTC GFS/ETA
ARE SUGGESTING THAT VERY FEW LOCATIONS WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN WITH
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT DIDN'T FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE MODEL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO TOMORROW'S OPTIMISTIC
SKY COVER FORECAST.  NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO ANY LATER PERIODS.

ST. JEAN

.BTV...NONE.






FXUS61 KBTV 161721
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
121 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2002

...WET WX TNGT FOLLOWED BY COOL/UNSTABLE TREND FOR THE NXT WEEK...

CRNT: AS ELUDED TO IN ERLR DISC...ERN CHMPL VLY AND GOOD CHUNK OF VT
LKLY TO BE DRY-SLOTTED WITH THIS EVENT AS STG MID-LVL JET/DRYING
PUNCHING INTO TRI-STATE REGION WITH A VECTOR BEAMED ON VT BASED ON
SAT/WV IMAGERY.

RDR COMPOSITES SHW BEST OVERRUNNING PCPN ACRS ERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
BEST DEFORMATION/WRAPARD MVG ACRS NY.

ALL MDLS APPEAR CONSISTENT WITH ONE ANTHR AND THROUGHOUT THE
EVENT BUT GFS (AVN) SHWS THESE FEATURES IN MORE DETAIL AND WL
LEAN FCST ON GFS GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM: SFC LOW TRACK ACRS SNE/NH THIS EVENING/TNGT WL SHIFT
HVST PCPN E INTO PTNS OF VT THIS EVENING PRIOR TO SHUTTING OFF ARD
MIDNIGHT ACRS MUCH OF FA AND LINGERING ACRS NRN FA.  ULVL TROF STL
WELL W OF FA WITH MORE S/W ENERGY DIVING INTO TROF AXIS WL KEEP WSW
ULVL FLOW...A DRYING/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND NOT A WRAPARD/UPSLOPE
SCENARIO. THUS...DO NOT SEE A PROLONGED -SHRA THREAT AFT MAIN
DYNAMICS/SFC FEATURE EXITS.

06/12Z INITIAL HPC/MDL QPF ESTIMATES NEED TO BE SHIFTED NW ~30NM.
THUS...RAINFALL AMTS NOT AS GREAT AS ERLR XPCTD FOR MUCH OF VT
(LKLY



   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

412
ASUS51 KBTV 171005
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU OCT 17 2002

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-171100-
_____VERMONT_____

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    41  34  76 W6        29.73R
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    38  35  89 N3        29.72R
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    37  36  96 CALM      29.70R
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     39  37  92 CALM      29.67R
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    39  36  87 CALM      29.74R
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    42  36  79 NE6       29.69R
BENNINGTON     MOCLDY    41  39  93 W5        29.74R
$$

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX



                        LSC WEATHER CENTER FORECAST
               [1]Lyndon State College Meteorology Home Page
                    12:00 PM Wednesday October 16, 2002
                     STUDENT METEOROLOGIST: Adam Gautie
       ** The latest forecast for Northeast & North Central Vermont**
       ** The area bounded by Waterbury, St. Johnsbury, and Newport**

   This Afternoon: Rain will develop across the area from south to north.
   Intermittent heavy downpours are likely throughout the afternoon and
   evening. Rain totals will likely range from 1.25 inches in southern
   areas of the Northeast Kingdom with .75 inches likely along the
   Canadian border. Temperatures will hold steady in the mid 40s with the
   high between 41-46. Winds will remain light and variable early but
   will shift and increase from the NE at 5-15 mph later in the day.

   Tonight: Heavy rain early becoming showers late. Temperatures will
   slowly fall into the upper 30 to near 40. Winds will shift into the
   west late at 5-10 mph.

   Thursday: Spotty showers will occur early then remaining mostly cloudy
   for the rest of the afternoon. High temperatures will rise to near 50.
   Winds will be light and variable

   Thursday Night: Overcast and cold with lows dropping to 33-37. Winds
   will remain light and variable.

                             Extended Forecast

   Friday: We will see a chance of light rain with highs expected to
   reach near 50.

   Saturday: Expect rain showers in lower elevations with possible snow
   showers in the higher terrain above 2000 feet. It will remain cold
   with temperatures reaching a high in the mid 40s.

   Sunday: More rain showers possible with scattered snow flurries in
   higher elevations. Highs will once again only rise into the mid 40s.

                            Forecast Discussion

   An early Noreaster will bring much needed rainfall across the
   Northeast Kingdom. We should expect rain to be heavy at times with
   totals reaching between the 1 to 1.5 inch ranges. Wind should not be a
   problem for us but Southern New England will see 30-40 mph wind gusts.
   Tonight the coastal storm will rapidly move off towards the northeast
   leaving a possibility of showers as the low departs the area. For
   Friday and Saturday a couple of short-wave troughs will swing across
   Northern Vermont bringing more moisture and cold air into the area. We
   may even see the seasons first snow showers in higher elevations, as
   temperatures will hold into the low to mid 40s both days. Tropical
   Depression 14 is located near Cuba but will not be a problem for us in
   the near future.

References

   1. http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/

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