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Expires:200302142100;;228163
FPUS51 KBTV 140802
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
302 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2003


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-142100-
CALEDONIA VT-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE VT-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT-WASHINGTON VT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISLAND POND VT...MONTPELIER VT...
NEWPORT VT...RANDOLPH VT...ST. JOHNSBURY VT...STOWE VT
302 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2003

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES. VERY COLD WITH A
HIGH ZERO TO 5 ABOVE. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW 20 BELOW TO 30 BELOW. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND CONTINUED VERY COLD. HIGH NEAR ZERO.
NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR AND BITTER COLD. LOW 25 BELOW TO 35
BELOW.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY AND CONTINUED VERY COLD. HIGH AROUND 5 ABOVE.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW 20 BELOW TO 30 BELOW.
.WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH 10 TO 15.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARMER. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS DURING
THE NIGHT. LOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE AND HIGH IN THE LOWER 20S.
.WEDNESDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW NEAR 10 ABOVE AND HIGH IN THE LOWER 30S.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW NEAR 10 ABOVE AND HIGH 25 TO 30.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 140629
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
128 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2003

CURRENTLY...PREDOMINATELY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS REGION TONIGHT...WITH
ONLY A FEW PASSING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. TEMPS ARE RUNNING SOME
5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW READINGS AT THIS TIME LAST NIGHT...MAINLY DUE
TO DECOUPLING OF BNDRY LYR ACROSS MANY LOCNS. WINDS STILL REMAIN LT
NORTH TO NORTHWEST ACROSS A FEW SPOTS...BUT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH
OVERNT.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WX OTHER THAN
COLD. SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND TODAY...AND CAN'T RULE OUT THE CHANCE OF A FLURRY OR
TWO...BUT ALL IN ALL DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN. GOOD MIXING AND DRY
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES TO 850 HPA SUGGEST TEMPS ONLY A 2 TO 3 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. NOSE OF ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES ACROSS AREA
TONIGHT...AND ALL AREAS SHOULD FULLY DECOUPLE UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
THUS TEMPS WILL REALLY PLUMMET WITH SOME RECORDS BEING
SHATTERED...ESP AT KMPV AND KMSS WHERE RECORDS ONLY GO BACK TO 1948.
RECORDS ELSEWHERE MAY BE TOUGHER TO ATTAIN DUE TO LONGER
CLIMATOLOGY(SEE BELOW).

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES WITH 1040 ARCTIC
ANTICYLCONE SETTLING JUST NORTH OF REGION. STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CONFLUENT FLOW WILL NOT ALLOW EJECTING SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL U.S. TO
MAKE ANY INROADS NORTHWARD. THUS DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR CONDS
EXPECTED. DESPITE MID LEVEL WAA AND 850 TEMPS ON THE RISE...GOOD
NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW SETS UP ON SATURDAY AND HAVE UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE AREA WIDE...WITH NORTHERN VALLEYS COLDER THAN SURROUNDING
REGIONS WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TYPE OF SYNOPTIC SETUP. ALL AND
ALL AN UNPLEASANT WX DAY FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH ADDED INSULT OF
LOW WIND CHILLS. CONFIDENCE HIGH THAT SAT NT WILL BE THE COLDEST
NIGHT OF THE WINTER AS EVENING TEMPS START OUT LOW...AND FREE FALL
ALL NIGHT. AGAIN KMSS AND KMPV RECORDS WILL BE ECLIPSED
EASILY...PERHAPS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER COLD DAY MONDAY AS SFC
HIGH SLUGGISHLY RETREATS EASTWARD.

TUESDAY ONWARDS...A WELCOMED WARMUP AS REGION AS BROAD SW FLOW SETS
UP ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING RIDGE. HGHTS/THICKNESSES RISE
CONSIDERABLY...WITH ALL AREAS INTO THE 20S...AND WARMER LOCNS
NEARING THE 32 DEGREE MARK BY WEDNESDAY.

RECORD MINS FOR SAT 2/15        RECORD MINS FOR SUN 2/16

BURLINGTON.......-26/1943       BURLINGTON.......-26/1943
ST JOHNSBURY.....-28/1987       ST JOHNSBURY.....-43/1943
MONTPELIER.......-14/1987       MONTPELIER.......-13/1987
MASSENA..........-22/1987       MASSENA..........-12/1959

.BTV...NONE.

JMG







FXUS61 KBTV 140143
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
843 PM EST THU FEB 13 2003

LAKE EFFECT CLOUD PLUME XTNDG FM SRN ADRNDCKS THRU CNTRL/S VT WHILE
REST OF FA SKC.  AS SFC RDG MVS ACRS NNY OVRNGT AND BL WIND BACKS
AND DIMINISHES XPCT CLRG WHERE CRNTLY MOCLDY.  WINDS HAV ALRDY
DECOUPLED AND GRAD SLACKENS OVRNGT AS RDG APCHS SO XPCT WNDS TO RMN
LGT.  THIS ALL SETS UP FOR FRIGID NGT ACRS N CNTRY UNDER GOOD RAD
COOLG.  EXPANDED MIN TEMP RANGE ON LOW END WITH RDGS GNLY 15 TO 30
BLO ZERO...A LTL COLDER ADRNDCKS AND A LTL "MILDER" SC VT.

SHLW LL MSTR FRI SHD LEAD TO SOME CLDS IN THIS ARCTIC AMS AND CANT
RUL OUT A FLRY AS CRNT FCST INDCTS.  LL THKNS AND 925 MB TEMP FIELDS
SUGGEST FRI TMPS SMLR TO TDA...PSBLY A DEG OR SO HIR IN A FEW LOCNS
SO ZERO TO 5 ABOVE N ZNS AND NR 10 S VT.

FRIGID AMS WL RMN LOCKED ACRS FA THRU THE WEEKEND AS 1040 ARCTIC HI
BLDS N OF RGN WITH NE BL FLOW.  DESPITE MODERATING THKNS AND H8
TMPS...COLDEST TMPS OF THE WINTER MAY BE SAT/SAT NGT...ESP N VLYS
WHICH TRADITIONALLY SEE COLDEST REGIME WITH THIS SET UP AS SHLW COLD
AIR DRAINS DOWN THE VLYS.

.BTV...NONE.

KJC





FXUS61 KBTV 131923
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
223 PM EST THU FEB 13 2003

WATER VAPOR SHOWING DEEP MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS EASTERN CONUS WITH
DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER ROCKIES MTNS AHEAD OF APPROACHING ULVL LOW
NEAR OAKLAND CA. PLENTY OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING AHEAD OF
SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH NOSE OF STRONG JET AND GOOD ULVL DIVERGENCE
OVER SW CONUS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INITIALIZE WELL WITH
STRENGTH/POSITION OF TROF OVER NE CONUS BUT ARE STILL UNDER FCSTING
STRENGTH OF ULVL LOW NEAR CA COAST LINE. THIS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF
CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRES AND CONFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT
SUPPRESSES ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE...VERY COLD AIR
CONTINUES TO REMAIN ANCHORED ACRS EASTERN CANADA AND MUCH OF THE NE
CONUS. AT 85H MODELS INITIALIZED WELL WITH TEMPS/HGHTS ACRS REGION
AND WL USE COMBINATION OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBS FOR
FCSTING TEMPS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

TONIGHT-FRIDAY...NW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CONTINUES ACRS FA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WL BE TRICKY TONIGHT BASED ON
CLOUDS/WINDS. FEEL CYCLONIC FLOW COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE SFC WINDS WL
KEEP PARTS OF CWA IN THE CLOUDS. THIS ALSO IS DISPLAYED NICELY IN
THE BUFKIT MOISTURE/OMEGA FIELDS FOR SLK/BTV. HOWEVER...WITH TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO REACH ZERO TODAY AND 925MB TEMPS NEAR -30C STILL FEEL
-25F AT SLK AND NEAR -15F IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY LOOKS REASONABLE.
FRIDAY...STILL SOME LIFT/MOISTURE AROUND TO MENTION PC SKIES WITH
MTNS FLURRIES. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN TEMP STRUCTURE...THEREFORE
EXPECT HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO. FRIDAY NITE...WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE WITH FRNT COMBINED WITH SOME 7H FG/850-500MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE WL MENTION CHC FOR MTN FLURRIES. LIMITED LOW/MID LVL
MOISTURE WL KEEP PRECIP TO A MINIMAL.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...STRONG (1040MB) ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO REGION
AND LLVL CAA DEVELOPS SATURDAY BEHIND WEAK FRNT. THIS HIGH PRES
SYSTEM WL PUSH MOISTURE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
WL TO OUR SOUTH. THEREFORE...WL CONTINUE WITH THE MS AND COLD FCST.
THE SFC GRADIENT COMBINED WITH TEMPS NEAR ZERO SUGGEST POSSIBLE
MORE WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS.

EXTENDED...STRONG LVL WAA DEVELOPS AHEAD OF NEXT CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ALSO...MOISTURE INCREASES AND SOME Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE WL MENTION CHC FOR SW ON WEDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS AND
LLVL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

.BTV...NONE.

TABER




   This  data  is  from  the  [3]IWIN  (Interactive  Weather  Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

992
ASUS51 KBTV 140905
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2003

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-141000-
_____VERMONT_____

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLEAR    -17 -24  70 E5        30.06S
MONTPELIER     PTCLDY   -10 -23  52 NW10      29.96S WCI -29
MORRISVILLE    CLEAR    -20 -28  67 VRB3      29.99F
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A    -23 -29  73 CALM      29.98S
RUTLAND        PTCLDY   -13 -26  53 CALM      29.98S
SPRINGFIELD    CLEAR    -11 -18  71 NE6       30.00S
BENNINGTON     PTCLDY     0  -8  69 NW3       29.97R
$$

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX



                        LSC WEATHER CENTER FORECAST
               [1]Lyndon State College Meteorology Home Page
                     5:00pm Thursday, February 13, 2003
                     STUDENT METEOROLOGIST: Janna Brown
       ** The latest forecast for Northeast & North Central Vermont**
       ** The area bounded by Waterbury, St. Johnsbury, and Newport**

   Tonight:  Skies  will  become  clear  overnight with a few clouds. Low
   temperatures  will range from 16 to 25 below zero with gusty winds out
   of  the  northwest at 10-15mph. Windy conditions will begin to subside
   early Friday morning.

   Friday: The sun will be shinning for Valentine's Day, but temperatures
   will  only  rise to the low single digits, maxing out between -2 and 2
   degrees.  Winds  will  be  between  5-15mph  out of the SW. There is a
   chance for a snow shower around noon.

   Friday  Night: Skies will become partly cloudy into the evening with a
   small  chance for snow showers near midnight. Lows will range from -15
   to -25 degrees. Winds will be out of the northwest at 5-10mph.

   Saturday:  Partly cloudy with a brisk northerly wind near 15mph. Highs
   will be between 5 and 15 degrees. Lows 21-25 below zero.

                             Extended Forecast

   Sunday:  Partly  cloudy  with  a  good amount of sunshine. Highs 12-16
   degrees and lows -8 to -12 degrees.

   Monday: Temperatures will be on the rise and should max out between 20
   and 25 degrees. There is a chance for a scattered snow shower, but for
   the most part skies will be partly cloudy. Lows 5 above to 5 below.

   Tuesday:  Partly  cloudy  through out the day with a chance for a snow
   shower  toward  evening.  Highs between 27 and 32 degrees. Lows in the
   upper teens.

                            Forecast Discussion

   Back  to  the well-below average temperatures for the Northeast! Highs
   for  Friday  will  struggle  to  reach  0 degrees. Northwest flow will
   continue  to  pump  in  that  arctic  air  making lows plus wind chill
   between  -20  and -30 degrees! So, dress safely if you plan to venture
   out  for  Valentine's  Day. Over the weekend arctic high pressure will
   build  over the northeast keeping the moisture associated with the low
   pressure  system  moving  up through the southeast, to our south. This
   will  keep  us  dry  and  cold  over  Saturday  and  Sunday.  However,
   temperatures will begin to warm up for Monday and Tuesday, bringing us
   some  relief  from the bitter weather. By Tuesday highs are shaping up
   to be near 32 degrees!

References

   1. http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/

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