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Expires:200302212100;;380298
FPUS51 KBTV 211019
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
519 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2003


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-212100-
CALEDONIA VT-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE VT-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT-WASHINGTON VT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISLAND POND VT...MONTPELIER VT...
NEWPORT VT...RANDOLPH VT...ST. JOHNSBURY VT...STOWE VT
519 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2003

...WINTER STORM WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE LOWER 40S. SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND
10 MPH.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE MID 20S. WIND BECOMING CALM.
.SATURDAY...CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN SLEET OR SNOW IN THE
AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATION 2 TO 4 INCHES. HIGH IN THE MID 30S. EAST WIND
5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...OR SNOW. LOW IN THE MID
20S. SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...OR SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW
IN THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STEADY IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...OTHERWISE
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW ZERO TO 5 BELOW. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM EARLY AFTERNOON ON.
HIGH IN THE UPPER TEENS.
.TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF FLURRIES DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOW 5 TO 10 ABOVE AND HIGH 15 TO 20.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW ZERO TO 5 BELOW AND HIGH IN THE UPPER
TEENS.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW ZERO TO 5 BELOW AND HIGH IN THE LOWER
20S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 211059
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
559 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2003

ONE MORE DAY OF OF FAIR AND MILD WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...
AND THEN A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRES TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. MODELS SHOW COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
ST LAWRENCE VLY TODAY SHOULD REMAIN THERE AND NOT MOVE SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FCST AREA.

AGAIN...DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THE UPCOMING STORM THIS
WEEKEND. ETA THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING IN WARM AIR ALOFT
OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SHALLOW LAYER OF COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...
WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL INVERSION ALOFT. ETA MODEL TRACKS THE LOW
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS...AND THEN SHIFTS IT EASTWARD TOWARD
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. GFS TRACK ALSO A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...AND THEN SHIFTS IT EASTWARD TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. GFS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING THE
WARM AIR ALOFT AS THE ETA IS. GFS 850 MB TEMPS SUGGESTS THAT AREAS
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER COULD SEE MOSTLY SNOW OR SLEET...WHILE
ETA STRONGLY SUGGESTS A CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN IN THE VALLEYS
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. GFS 1000-500 MB THICKNESS
VALUES DO CLIMB ABOVE 5400 METERS SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER...WHICH SUGGESTS A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOW TRACK...WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES ACROSS THE FCST AREA...WITH
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.

ALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT ANY MIXED PRECIP WILL CHANGE BACK TO
ALL SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.

HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY...AS OVERNIGHT TEMPS HAVE
REMAINED UP.

MOS LOW TEMPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TOO COLD...SO HAVE GONE
CLOSER TO THE 3 HOUR TEMPS FOR MINS SATURDAY NIGHT.

NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE MONDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE TAKEN OUT MENTION OF
SNOW FOR TUESDAY...AND INSTEAD WENT WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES.

.BTV...WINTER STORM WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
       VTZ001>012-NYZ026>031-034-035.

WGH





FXUS61 KBTV 210303
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1003 PM EST THU FEB 20 2003

GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME AND NO CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED AS A RESULT.  COLD FRONT TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER AS THE DAY SHIFT FORECASTER
ANTICIPATED.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT AND THIS WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL.  ONCE AGAIN...THIS COVERED WELL IN THE FORECAST.  NO
CHANGES ARE ALSO NEEDED FOR ANY OF THE LATER TIME PERIODS IN THE
FORECAST.

EVENSON

.BTV...NONE.











FXUS61 KBTV 201810
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
109 PM EST THU FEB 20 2003

CURRENTLY...GORGEOUS LATE WINTER DAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
FULL SUN AND TEMPS AREA WIDE IN THE 30S.  WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS
VT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS ACROSS N NY ZONES.

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NT...BENIGN WX CONTINUES THIS PERIOD AS SFC
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC SLIDES EASTWARD AND PROVIDES
BROAD S TO SW FLOW. WEAK BNDRY EVIDENT IN THE LOW LEVEL 1000-850 HPA
THICKNESS FIELDS PROGGED TO SAG SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL MOSITURE AND WILL AFFECT FAR NORTHERN AREAS
WITH MORE CLOUDS TOMORROW...THOUGH DRY CONDS SHOULD CONTINUE.
ELSEWHERE AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD CONTINUE. BNDRY LYR WIND FLOW
BECOMES LIGHT TOMORROW NT WITH MID TO HIGHER LEVEL RH/ISENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SYSTEM TO THE SW.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...COMPLICATED WX SCENARIO AT BEST WITH DEEP 985
SFC LOW TO TRACK DIRECTLY OVER REGION DURING THE DAY SAT. WITH LACK
OF STRONG SFC ANTICYLONE TO THE NORTH...CONCUR WITH MODEL CONSENSUS
OF BRINGING WARMER AIR IN ALOFT AT THE 850-700 HPA LYR.  AT THE SFC
THE SOLNS ARE MORE COMPLEX WITH LOW LEVEL 1000-850 HPA THICKNESS
PROFILES ALSO SUGGESTING AMPLE WARMING (ESP SE) BUT 3 HRLY TEMP
PROGS AT OR AROUND FREEZING ALL DAY. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT ATTEMPT
TO PEG EXACTLY WHERE RAIN/SNOW/SLEET/FZRA LINES WILL SET UP...BUT
WILL ADVERTISE A MIX ALL AREAS WITH THE TENDENCY FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TO CHG TO RAIN...AND PRECIP IN THE NW
HALF REMAINING MOSTLY IN THE FROZEN VARIETY. WILL ALSO ISSUE SPS TO
CONVEY THIS THINKING. EXPECTING A DECENT QPF EVENT WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS PWATS APPROACHING 1".  HOWEVER...WITH SFC TEMPS WITHIN 5 DEGREES
OR SO OF FREEZING...AND THE EXISTING SNOWPACK NOT RIPE BELIEVE ANY
FLOODING THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW. SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND
LIFTS RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY SUN WITH BNDRY LYR
THICKNESS PROFILES CRASHING AND PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST. BLUSTERY CONDS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL WITH TEMPS FALLING
ALL DAY.

SUNDAY NT ONWARDS...CHC OF SHSN SUN EVENING AS BOMBING SFC LOW
DEPARTS INTO THE MARITIMES...THEN NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT AREA WITH
MAINLY LT SNOWS FOR THE MON NT TUE TIMEFRAME. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD
AIR PROGGED TO SETTLE INTO REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH TEMPS
RETURNING TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE MID TO LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL NOT COME CLOSE TO THE
FRIGID CONDS EXPERIENCED A WEEK AGO AND WILL NOT STAY AS LONG. IN
FACT...MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES STRONGLY SUPPORT THIS SOLN WITH A
RETURN TO ZONAL FLOW AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

.BTV...NONE.

JMG








   This  data  is  from  the  [3]IWIN  (Interactive  Weather  Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

144
ASUS51 KBTV 211112
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2003

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-211200-
_____VERMONT_____

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    33  25  72 S8        29.99S
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    36  21  54 SW7       29.97S
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     23  17  78 CALM      29.96F
RUTLAND        PTCLDY    36  16  44 W9        30.02S
SPRINGFIELD    CLEAR     16  14  92 CALM      30.04R
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     17  12  80 S3        30.05S
$$

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX

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