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FPUS51 KBTV 241041 AAA
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
641 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2003


VTZ003-004-006>008-242000-
CALEDONIA-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISLAND POND...MONTPELIER...NEWPORT...
ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE
641 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2003

UPDATED FIRST PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION TIMING

.TODAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH LATE MORNING...THEN OCCASIONAL
RAIN. HIGH IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...OCCASIONAL RAIN. LOW IN THE MID 40S. EAST WIND AROUND 10
MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 80 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. HIGH IN THE UPPER
50S. EAST WIND 10 MPH BECOMING WEST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF
RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW 40 TO 45.
CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.MEMORIAL DAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH NEAR 60.
CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW IN THE
LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGH IN THE UPPER
50S.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. LOW IN THE LOWER
40S AND HIGH IN THE UPPER 50S.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE LOWER 40S AND HIGH IN THE MID
60S.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. LOW IN
THE MID 40S AND HIGH IN THE MID 60S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 241049
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
649 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2003

THE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP HAVE SPLIT FAR
ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE CWA IN A SEMI "LULL"...SO DECIDED TO SEND AN
UPDATE TO THE ZONES. PRECIPITATION HAS DROPPED OFF ACROSS VERMONT AND
MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS...SO PUT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MID/LATE MORNING TIME FRAME ACROSS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT IN THE ST. LAW.
VALLEY TO ACCOMMODATE THE LACK OF ANY STEADY PRECIP. HERE. LOOKING
FOR IT TO INCREASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON ACROSS VT.

.BTV...NONE.

JN





FXUS61 KBTV 240541
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
141 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2003

CURRENT...UPPER LEVEL/SFC LOWS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS VERTICALLY STACKED LOW...WITH
ITS SW WIND HAS TAPPED INTO MOISTURE FROM THE SE AND IS BRINGING
SHOWERS UP INTO THE NORTHEAST...AS EVIDENT IN THE 10KM RADAR CODED
MSG LOOP. THE SECONDARY/COASTAL LOW WHICH WAS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...NOW IS OFF THE CAPE HATTERAS/VA COAST
AREA AND MOVING NORTHEAST ON A PATH TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SOME RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING CLOUD
EDGE OF THIS LOW...STARTING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NE.

ETA AND AVN/GFS NOW MORE IN SYNC FROM YESTERDAY MORNING/S RUN...WITH
BOTH SHOWING THE COASTAL LOW TO STAY COASTAL AND NOT MOVE INLAND.
THEY ALSO SHOW THIS LOW MOVING FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST ON ITS
NORTHEAST PATH...THAT THE BULK OF MOISTURE WILL STAY MUCH EAST OF
THE CWA AND OUT TO SEA. ALTHOUGH WITH THE CUTOFF OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION HAVE A SW MOIST FLOW FEEDING IT...HAVING THE COASTAL
LOW MOVING FARTHER NORTHEAST AND NOT BEING ABSORBED ITSELF INTO THE
CUTOFF...IT LOOKS TO CUT SOME OF THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER
THE REGION AS A RESULT.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
EASTWARD IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WHICH IS EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AT THIS TIME...WHICH IN TURN WILL PUSH THE
CUTOFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES EAST THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. THIS CUTS OFF ANY LONG-STAY OF MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM.

EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER LOW..WHICH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...MOVES EAST...SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE AT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM SETS UP FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

.BTV...NONE.

JN






FXUS61 KBTV 240200
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
959 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2003

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
COASTLINE.  BOTH FEATURES ARE ENHANCING PRECIPITATION WITH THE NORTH
COUNTRY CURRENTLY IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES.  SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA AS DYNAMIC SUPPORT
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE.  WILL CHANGE WORDING A BIT IN THE
FORECAST TO MENTION SCATTERED VERSUS CHANCE GIVEN THAT PRECIPITATION
IS ALREADY OUT THERE. WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING
THE OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL TO RAPIDLY AND ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO CURRENT READINGS.  THUS WILL GENERALLY
RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES.  STILL LOOKING LIKE
STEADIER PRECIPITATION COMING IN ON SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY TIME FRAME
AND GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL.

UPDATED ZONES TO BE ISSUED NO LATER THAN 1015 PM.

EVENSON

.BTV...NONE.







FXUS61 KBTV 231944
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2003

PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WX FOR ABOUT THE NEXT WEEK. THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE AN OVERCAST AND DAMP ONE WITH MAX TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL...BUT THERE WILL BE DRY TIME EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY.

CLOSED LOW OVER WRN GRTLKS THIS PM WL MAKE ITS WAY SLOWLY EAST THRU
THE WEEKEND. AT THE SFC...ONE LOW RMNS TRAPPED UNDER THE UPR LOW...
WHILE A SECOND LOW MOVES FROM ITS PRESENT POSN ALG CAROLINA CST TO
TO GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING. ETA...WHICH EARLIER HAD BEEN
INDICATING THAT THE CSTL LOW WOULD LIFT NORTHWEST AND BE ABSORBED
BY THE LOW OVER THE GRTLKS...IS NOW VERY SIMILAR TO GFS IN
BRINGING LOW UP EAST COAST...SO CONFIDENCE A BIT HIR. ALSO...FOR
SECOND STRAIGHT RUN...THE GFS INDICATING THAT THE UPPER LOW WL SPLIT
DURING WEEKEND...WITH INITIAL LOBE LIFTING OUT OF FA SUN NITE. SECOND
LOBE PROJECTED TO HANG BACK IN OH VLY AND LIFT OUT DURING MIDWEEK
PERIOD. WITH THIS SCENARIO...WE MAY SEE 24 TO 36 HRS OF DRY
CONDITIONS LATER SUN NITE INTO TUES AM.

CURRENTLY: SOME BRKS IN THE CLD COVER HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO CLIMB
WELL INTO 60S ACRS NRN AREAS. THICKER CLOUD COVER SRN AREAS...WHERE
TEMPS ABT 10 DEGREES COOLER. RADAR NOT INDICATING ANY PCPN ATTM.
EXCEPT FOR A FEW LIGHT SHWRS EARIER TDY...IT HAS BEEN A MAINLY DRY
DAY.

SHORT TERM: WITH PERSISTENT E-SE FLOW IN LLVLS...AND UPPER FLOW BCMG
MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME...EXPECT CLDS TO THICKEN ACRS ENTIRE FA
TONITE WITH SHWRS PSBL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHEST POPS SRN ZONES. BEST
OVERRUNNING WITH THIS EVENT SETTING UP FOR SAT/SAT NITE. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THESE PERIODS...ALTHO THE AMT
OF PCPN WE SEE MAY NOT BE ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT. HEAVIEST PCPN
EXPECTED TO OCCUR EAST AND WEST OF FA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH SEPARATE
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE.

SUN/MON: COASTAL LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY SUNDAY...AND WE BCM MORE
INFLUENCED BY THE CLOSED LOW AND ITS WEAKENING ASSOCD SFC LOW. RAIN
MAY LINGER FOR AWHILE IN NE VT SUNDAY...BUT ELSEWHERE JUST CLDS AND
A CHC OF SHWRS..ESPECIALLY DURING PM HRS. AS LOW PULLS AWAY SUN
NITE...RISK OF SHWRS WL DECREASE. EXPECT MONDAY TO BE A MOSTLY DRY
DAY WITH JUST A MINIMAL CHC OF LIGHT RAIN SHWRS.

EXTENDED: UNSETTLED WITH CHC RAIN OR SHWRS FOR TUE/WED AS NEXT
CLOSED LOW AFFECTS FA. 12Z GFS INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY NOT
DEPART BY THURS...BUT OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DRY FCST FOR THURS
ATTM. MENTIONED CHC SHWRS FOR FRIDAY WITH APRCH OF CDFNT.

.BTV...NONE.

RJS




   This  data  is  from  the  [3]IWIN  (Interactive  Weather  Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

161
ASUS51 KBTV 241105
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
700 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2003

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-241200-
_____VERMONT_____

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    53  48  83 CALM      30.13R
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     51  46  83 CALM      30.15S
$$

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX



     Our Local Student forecasts will return after the academic break.
                                 Thank You.

       The forecast below is provided by the National Weather Service
     _________________________________________________________________

 CALEDONIA-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
 INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISLAND POND...MONTPELIER...NEWPORT...
 ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE
 641 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2003

 UPDATED FIRST PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION TIMING

 .TODAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH LATE MORNING...THEN OCCASIONAL
 RAIN. HIGH IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.
 CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT.
 .TONIGHT...OCCASIONAL RAIN. LOW IN THE MID 40S. EAST WIND AROUND 10
 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 80 PERCENT.
 .SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. HIGH IN THE UPPER
 50S. EAST WIND 10 MPH BECOMING WEST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF
 RAIN 60 PERCENT.
 .SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW 40 TO 45.
 CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
 .MEMORIAL DAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH NEAR 60.
 CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
 .MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW IN THE
 LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
 .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGH IN THE UPPER
 50S.
 .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. LOW IN THE LOWER
 40S AND HIGH IN THE UPPER 50S.
 .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE LOWER 40S AND HIGH IN THE MID
 60S.
 .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. LOW IN
 THE MID 40S AND HIGH IN THE MID 60S.

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